Daily Papers

End-to-End Speech Translation often shows slower convergence and worse performance when target transcriptions exhibit high variance and semantic ambiguity. We propose Listen, Attend, Understand (LAU), a semantic regularization technique that constrains the acoustic encoder's latent space during training. By leveraging frozen text embeddings to provide a directional auxiliary loss, LAU injects linguistic groundedness into the acoustic representation without increasing inference cost. We evaluate our method on a Bambara-to-French dataset with 30 hours of Bambara speech translated by non-professionals. Experimental results demonstrate that LAU models achieve comparable performance by standard metrics compared to an E2E-ST system pretrained with 100\% more data and while performing better in preserving semantic meaning. Furthermore, we introduce Total Parameter Drift as a metric to quantify the structural impact of regularization to demonstrate that semantic constraints actively reorganize the encoder's weights to prioritize meaning over literal phonetics. Our findings suggest that LAU is a robust alternative to post-hoc rescoring and a valuable addition to E2E-ST training, especially when training data is scarce and/or noisy.

In Online Continual Learning (OCL) a learning system receives a stream of data and sequentially performs prediction and training steps. Important challenges in OCL are concerned with automatic adaptation to the particular non-stationary structure of the data, and with quantification of predictive uncertainty. Motivated by these challenges we introduce a probabilistic Bayesian online learning model by using a (possibly pretrained) neural representation and a state space model over the linear predictor weights. Non-stationarity over the linear predictor weights is modelled using a parameter drift transition density, parametrized by a coefficient that quantifies forgetting. Inference in the model is implemented with efficient Kalman filter recursions which track the posterior distribution over the linear weights, while online SGD updates over the transition dynamics coefficient allows to adapt to the non-stationarity seen in data. While the framework is developed assuming a linear Gaussian model, we also extend it to deal with classification problems and for fine-tuning the deep learning representation. In a set of experiments in multi-class classification using data sets such as CIFAR-100 and CLOC we demonstrate the predictive ability of the model and its flexibility to capture non-stationarity.

The prevalent use of commercial and open-source diffusion models (DMs) for text-to-image generation prompts risk mitigation to prevent undesired behaviors. Existing concept erasing methods in academia are all based on full parameter or specification-based fine-tuning, from which we observe the following issues: 1) Generation alternation towards erosion: Parameter drift during target elimination causes alternations and potential deformations across all generations, even eroding other concepts at varying degrees, which is more evident with multi-concept erased; 2) Transfer inability & deployment inefficiency: Previous model-specific erasure impedes the flexible combination of concepts and the training-free transfer towards other models, resulting in linear cost growth as the deployment scenarios increase. To achieve non-invasive, precise, customizable, and transferable elimination, we ground our erasing framework on one-dimensional adapters to erase multiple concepts from most DMs at once across versatile erasing applications. The concept-SemiPermeable structure is injected as a Membrane (SPM) into any DM to learn targeted erasing, and meantime the alteration and erosion phenomenon is effectively mitigated via a novel Latent Anchoring fine-tuning strategy. Once obtained, SPMs can be flexibly combined and plug-and-play for other DMs without specific re-tuning, enabling timely and efficient adaptation to diverse scenarios. During generation, our Facilitated Transport mechanism dynamically regulates the permeability of each SPM to respond to different input prompts, further minimizing the impact on other concepts. Quantitative and qualitative results across ~40 concepts, 7 DMs and 4 erasing applications have demonstrated the superior erasing of SPM. Our code and pre-tuned SPMs will be available on the project page https://lyumengyao.github.io/projects/spm.

Class-Incremental Learning (CIL) requires models to continually acquire knowledge of new classes without forgetting old ones. Despite Pre-trained Models (PTMs) have shown excellent performance in CIL, catastrophic forgetting still occurs as the model learns new concepts. Existing work seeks to utilize lightweight components to adjust the PTM, while the forgetting phenomenon still comes from {\em parameter and retrieval} levels. Specifically, iterative updates of the model result in parameter drift, while mistakenly retrieving irrelevant modules leads to the mismatch during inference. To this end, we propose MOdel Surgery (MOS) to rescue the model from forgetting previous knowledge. By training task-specific adapters, we continually adjust the PTM to downstream tasks. To mitigate parameter-level forgetting, we present an adapter merging approach to learn task-specific adapters, which aims to bridge the gap between different components while reserve task-specific information. Besides, to address retrieval-level forgetting, we introduce a training-free self-refined adapter retrieval mechanism during inference, which leverages the model's inherent ability for better adapter retrieval. By jointly rectifying the model with those steps, MOS can robustly resist catastrophic forgetting in the learning process. Extensive experiments on seven benchmark datasets validate MOS's state-of-the-art performance. Code is available at: https://github.com/sun-hailong/AAAI25-MOS

Time series forecasting always faces the challenge of concept drift, where data distributions evolve over time, leading to a decline in forecast model performance. Existing solutions are based on online learning, which continually organize recent time series observations as new training samples and update model parameters according to the forecasting feedback on recent data. However, they overlook a critical issue: obtaining ground-truth future values of each sample should be delayed until after the forecast horizon. This delay creates a temporal gap between the training samples and the test sample. Our empirical analysis reveals that the gap can introduce concept drift, causing forecast models to adapt to outdated concepts. In this paper, we present Proceed, a novel proactive model adaptation framework for online time series forecasting. Proceed first estimates the concept drift between the recently used training samples and the current test sample. It then employs an adaptation generator to efficiently translate the estimated drift into parameter adjustments, proactively adapting the model to the test sample. To enhance the generalization capability of the framework, Proceed is trained on synthetic diverse concept drifts. Extensive experiments on five real-world datasets across various forecast models demonstrate that Proceed brings more performance improvements than the state-of-the-art online learning methods, significantly facilitating forecast models' resilience against concept drifts. Code is available at https://github.com/SJTU-DMTai/OnlineTSF.

Redshift drift effect, an observational probe that indenpendent of cosmological models, presents unique applications in specific cosmological epoch. By quantifying redshift drift signal , researchers can determine the rate of the Universe's accelerated expansion and impose constraints on cosmological models and parameters. This study evaluates the precision in cosmological parameters estimation derived from this signal via HI 21cm signal, that observed by the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) telescope, with spectral resolutions of 0.001 Hz and 0.002 Hz over an observational period of Delta T = 0.5 year, utilizing two established techniques: the canonical redshift drift and the differential redshift drift method. The primary objective of this project is to ascertain the rate of cosmic acceleration and establish a solid foundation for real-time cosmology. The results reveal that both the two methods impose highly precise constraints on cosmological parameters, with accuracy reaching the level of millimeter per second (mm/s) or better. However, the canonical method provides relatively less stringent compared to the differential approach. Furthermore, when solely constraining the matter density parameter Omega_m, the strategy can be adapted to the canonical method. Nonetheless, the differential method exhibits clear advantages when simultaneously constraining the matter density parameter Omega_m and the equation of state of dark energy. These findings validate SKA's capability in detecting redshift drift and refining observational cosmology and indicates the effect can offer superior diagnostic capabilities compared to other techniques, provided that appropriate observational equipment or sufficient observational time is employed.

Diffusion models have achieved remarkable success in text-to-image generation, enabling the creation of high-quality images from text prompts or other modalities. However, existing methods for customizing these models are limited by handling multiple personalized subjects and the risk of overfitting. Moreover, their large number of parameters is inefficient for model storage. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to address these limitations in existing text-to-image diffusion models for personalization. Our method involves fine-tuning the singular values of the weight matrices, leading to a compact and efficient parameter space that reduces the risk of overfitting and language drifting. We also propose a Cut-Mix-Unmix data-augmentation technique to enhance the quality of multi-subject image generation and a simple text-based image editing framework. Our proposed SVDiff method has a significantly smaller model size compared to existing methods (approximately 2,200 times fewer parameters compared with vanilla DreamBooth), making it more practical for real-world applications.

We propose a new method for exemplar-free class incremental training of ViTs. The main challenge of exemplar-free continual learning is maintaining plasticity of the learner without causing catastrophic forgetting of previously learned tasks. This is often achieved via exemplar replay which can help recalibrate previous task classifiers to the feature drift which occurs when learning new tasks. Exemplar replay, however, comes at the cost of retaining samples from previous tasks which for many applications may not be possible. To address the problem of continual ViT training, we first propose gated class-attention to minimize the drift in the final ViT transformer block. This mask-based gating is applied to class-attention mechanism of the last transformer block and strongly regulates the weights crucial for previous tasks. Importantly, gated class-attention does not require the task-ID during inference, which distinguishes it from other parameter isolation methods. Secondly, we propose a new method of feature drift compensation that accommodates feature drift in the backbone when learning new tasks. The combination of gated class-attention and cascaded feature drift compensation allows for plasticity towards new tasks while limiting forgetting of previous ones. Extensive experiments performed on CIFAR-100, Tiny-ImageNet and ImageNet100 demonstrate that our exemplar-free method obtains competitive results when compared to rehearsal based ViT methods.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) are rapidly advancing, yet their reasoning ability often lags behind that of strong text-only counterparts. Existing methods to bridge this gap rely on supervised fine-tuning over large-scale multimodal reasoning data or reinforcement learning, both of which are resource-intensive. A promising alternative is model merging, which interpolates parameters between reasoning-enhanced LLMs and multimodal variants. However, our analysis shows that naive merging is not always a "free lunch": its effectiveness varies drastically across model families, with some (e.g., LLaVA, Idefics) benefiting while others (e.g., Qwen) suffer performance degradation. To address this, we propose Directional Reasoning Injection for Fine-Tuning (DRIFT) MLLMs, a lightweight method that transfers reasoning knowledge in the gradient space, without destabilizing multimodal alignment. DRIFT precomputes a reasoning prior as the parameter-space difference between reasoning and multimodal variants, then uses it to bias gradients during multimodal fine-tuning. This approach preserves the simplicity of standard supervised fine-tuning pipelines while enabling efficient reasoning transfer. Extensive experiments on multimodal reasoning benchmarks, including MathVista and MathVerse, demonstrate that DRIFT consistently improves reasoning performance over naive merging and supervised fine-tuning, while matching or surpassing training-heavy methods at a fraction of the cost.

Test-time adaptation (TTA) is the problem of updating a pre-trained source model at inference time given test input(s) from a different target domain. Most existing TTA approaches assume the setting in which the target domain is stationary, i.e., all the test inputs come from a single target domain. However, in many practical settings, the test input distribution might exhibit a lifelong/continual shift over time. Moreover, existing TTA approaches also lack the ability to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, which is crucial when distribution shifts occur between the source and target domain. To address these issues, we present PETAL (Probabilistic lifElong Test-time Adaptation with seLf-training prior), which solves lifelong TTA using a probabilistic approach, and naturally results in (1) a student-teacher framework, where the teacher model is an exponential moving average of the student model, and (2) regularizing the model updates at inference time using the source model as a regularizer. To prevent model drift in the lifelong/continual TTA setting, we also propose a data-driven parameter restoration technique which contributes to reducing the error accumulation and maintaining the knowledge of recent domains by restoring only the irrelevant parameters. In terms of predictive error rate as well as uncertainty based metrics such as Brier score and negative log-likelihood, our method achieves better results than the current state-of-the-art for online lifelong test-time adaptation across various benchmarks, such as CIFAR-10C, CIFAR-100C, ImageNetC, and ImageNet3DCC datasets. The source code for our approach is accessible at https://github.com/dhanajitb/petal.

The security of Large Language Model (LLM) applications is fundamentally challenged by "form-first" attacks like prompt injection and jailbreaking, where malicious instructions are embedded within user inputs. Conventional defenses, which rely on post hoc output filtering, are often brittle and fail to address the root cause: the model's inability to distinguish trusted instructions from untrusted data. This paper proposes Countermind, a multi-layered security architecture intended to shift defenses from a reactive, post hoc posture to a proactive, pre-inference, and intra-inference enforcement model. The architecture proposes a fortified perimeter designed to structurally validate and transform all inputs, and an internal governance mechanism intended to constrain the model's semantic processing pathways before an output is generated. The primary contributions of this work are conceptual designs for: (1) A Semantic Boundary Logic (SBL) with a mandatory, time-coupled Text Crypter intended to reduce the plaintext prompt injection attack surface, provided all ingestion paths are enforced. (2) A Parameter-Space Restriction (PSR) mechanism, leveraging principles from representation engineering, to dynamically control the LLM's access to internal semantic clusters, with the goal of mitigating semantic drift and dangerous emergent behaviors. (3) A Secure, Self-Regulating Core that uses an OODA loop and a learning security module to adapt its defenses based on an immutable audit log. (4) A Multimodal Input Sandbox and Context-Defense mechanisms to address threats from non-textual data and long-term semantic poisoning. This paper outlines an evaluation plan designed to quantify the proposed architecture's effectiveness in reducing the Attack Success Rate (ASR) for form-first attacks and to measure its potential latency overhead.

Foundation models (FMs) achieve strong performance across diverse tasks with task-specific fine-tuning, yet full parameter fine-tuning is often computationally prohibitive for large models. Parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) methods like Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) reduce this cost by introducing low-rank matrices for tuning fewer parameters. While LoRA allows for efficient fine-tuning, it requires significant data for adaptation, making Federated Learning (FL) an appealing solution due to its privacy-preserving collaborative framework. However, combining LoRA with FL introduces two key challenges: the Server-Side LoRA Aggregation Bias, where server-side averaging of LoRA matrices diverges from the ideal global update, and the Client-Side LoRA Initialization Drift, emphasizing the need for consistent initialization across rounds. Existing approaches address these challenges individually, limiting their effectiveness. We propose LoRA-FAIR, a novel method that tackles both issues by introducing a correction term on the server while keeping the original LoRA modules, enhancing aggregation efficiency and accuracy. LoRA-FAIR maintains computational and communication efficiency, yielding superior performance over state-of-the-art methods. Experimental results on ViT and MLP-Mixer models across large-scale datasets demonstrate that LoRA-FAIR consistently achieves performance improvements in FL settings.

Low-rank adaptation (LoRA) has become a standard tool for efficiently fine-tuning large language models (LLMs). Yet, even minor LoRA updates can induce alignment drift, weakening safety and behavioral constraints through entangled parameter changes. To address this, we propose AlignGuard-LoRA (AGL), a principled framework for preserving alignment during finetuning. AGL introduces several key components: a primary task loss for supervision, Fisher Information Matrix-based regularization to restrict updates in alignment-sensitive subspaces, and task-specific regularization to stabilize the integration of new knowledge. We further introduce collision-aware regularization, blending Riemannian overlap -- which penalizes coordinate-wise interference -- and geodesic separation -- which encourages disjoint update geometry. We curate DriftCaps, a targeted diagnostic benchmark of safe and unsafe prompts designed to quantify alignment drift and safety degradation. Empirical evaluations show that AGL mitigates alignment drift by up to 50% on safety-critical benchmarks without degrading downstream task performance. Comprehensive ablation confirms that each component contributes distinctly to preserving latent safety behaviors. Finally, we derive and validate a scaling law for catastrophic forgetting, revealing that AGL flattens post-finetuning loss escalation while preserving adaptation dynamics. AGL is a structurally grounded refinement of LoRA, ensuring alignment preservation with minimal trade-offs. To encourage further exploration and development, we open-source our implementation.

Chain-of-thought (CoT) has emerged as a critical mechanism for enhancing reasoning capabilities in large language models (LLMs), with self-consistency demonstrating notable promise in boosting performance. However, inherent linguistic biases in multilingual training corpora frequently cause semantic drift and logical inconsistencies, especially in sub-10B parameter LLMs handling complex inference tasks. To overcome these constraints, we propose the Cross-Lingual Consistency (CLC) framework, an innovative inference paradigm that integrates multilingual reasoning paths through majority voting to elevate LLMs' reasoning capabilities. Empirical evaluations on the CMATH dataset reveal CLC's superiority over the conventional self-consistency method, delivering 9.5%, 6.5%, and 6.0% absolute accuracy gains for DeepSeek-Math-7B-Instruct, Qwen2.5-Math-7B-Instruct, and Gemma2-9B-Instruct respectively. Expanding CLC's linguistic scope to 11 diverse languages implies two synergistic benefits: 1) neutralizing linguistic biases in multilingual training corpora through multilingual ensemble voting, 2) escaping monolingual reasoning traps by exploring the broader multilingual solution space. This dual benefits empirically enables more globally optimal reasoning paths compared to monolingual self-consistency baselines, as evidenced by the 4.1%-18.5% accuracy gains using Gemma2-9B-Instruct on the MGSM dataset.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) reliably improves the reasoning performance of large language models, yet it appears to modify only a small fraction of parameters. We revisit this paradox and show that sparsity is a surface artifact of a model-conditioned optimization bias: for a fixed pretrained model, updates consistently localize to preferred parameter regions, highly consistent across runs and largely invariant to datasets and RL recipes. We mechanistically explain these dynamics with a Three-Gate Theory: Gate I (KL Anchor) imposes a KL-constrained update; Gate II (Model Geometry) steers the step off principal directions into low-curvature, spectrum-preserving subspaces; and Gate III (Precision) hides micro-updates in non-preferred regions, making the off-principal bias appear as sparsity. We then validate this theory and, for the first time, provide a parameter-level characterization of RLVR's learning dynamics: RLVR learns off principal directions in weight space, achieving gains via minimal spectral drift, reduced principal-subspace rotation, and off-principal update alignment. In contrast, SFT targets principal weights, distorts the spectrum, and even lags RLVR. Together, these results provide the first parameter-space account of RLVR's training dynamics, revealing clear regularities in how parameters evolve. Crucially, we show that RL operates in a distinct optimization regime from SFT, so directly adapting SFT-era parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) methods can be flawed, as evidenced by our case studies on advanced sparse fine-tuning and LoRA variants. We hope this work charts a path toward a white-box understanding of RLVR and the design of geometry-aware, RLVR-native learning algorithms, rather than repurposed SFT-era heuristics.

Autoregressive Language Models (LLMs) trained on Next-Token Prediction (NTP) often suffer from ``Topic Drift'' where the generation wanders away from the initial prompt due to a reliance on local associations rather than global planning holtzman2019curious. While scaling model size mitigates this brown2020language, the fundamental myopia of the NTP objective remains. In this work, we introduce the Idea-Gated Transformer, a novel architecture that separates semantic planning from syntactic generation. We introduce an auxiliary ``Idea Head'' trained to predict the bag-of-words distribution for a future context window, creating a latent ``Concept Vector'' that actively gates the main vocabulary during generation. We propose a differentiable gating mechanism that suppresses semantically irrelevant tokens, effectively pruning the search space in real-time. Experiments on WikiText-103 demonstrate that while the Idea-Gated model achieves comparable validation perplexity to a standard GPT-2 baseline, it exhibits significantly superior Domain Retention. Qualitative and quantitative analysis reveals that the gating mechanism successfully locks generation into specific semantic clusters (e.g., Finance, Science) and resists associative drift, offering a parameter-efficient path toward more controllable language modeling.

Data drift is the change in model input data that is one of the key factors leading to machine learning models performance degradation over time. Monitoring drift helps detecting these issues and preventing their harmful consequences. Meaningful drift interpretation is a fundamental step towards effective re-training of the model. In this study we propose an end-to-end framework for reliable model-agnostic change-point detection and interpretation in large task-oriented dialog systems, proven effective in multiple customer deployments. We evaluate our approach and demonstrate its benefits with a novel variant of intent classification training dataset, simulating customer requests to a dialog system. We make the data publicly available.

A class of generative models that unifies flow-based and diffusion-based methods is introduced. These models extend the framework proposed in Albergo & Vanden-Eijnden (2023), enabling the use of a broad class of continuous-time stochastic processes called `stochastic interpolants' to bridge any two arbitrary probability density functions exactly in finite time. These interpolants are built by combining data from the two prescribed densities with an additional latent variable that shapes the bridge in a flexible way. The time-dependent probability density function of the stochastic interpolant is shown to satisfy a first-order transport equation as well as a family of forward and backward Fokker-Planck equations with tunable diffusion coefficient. Upon consideration of the time evolution of an individual sample, this viewpoint immediately leads to both deterministic and stochastic generative models based on probability flow equations or stochastic differential equations with an adjustable level of noise. The drift coefficients entering these models are time-dependent velocity fields characterized as the unique minimizers of simple quadratic objective functions, one of which is a new objective for the score of the interpolant density. We show that minimization of these quadratic objectives leads to control of the likelihood for generative models built upon stochastic dynamics, while likelihood control for deterministic dynamics is more stringent. We also discuss connections with other methods such as score-based diffusion models, stochastic localization processes, probabilistic denoising techniques, and rectifying flows. In addition, we demonstrate that stochastic interpolants recover the Schr\"odinger bridge between the two target densities when explicitly optimizing over the interpolant. Finally, algorithmic aspects are discussed and the approach is illustrated on numerical examples.

Speculative Decoding has gained popularity as an effective technique for accelerating the auto-regressive inference process of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, Speculative Decoding entirely relies on the availability of efficient draft models, which are often lacking for many existing language models due to a stringent constraint of vocabulary incompatibility. In this work we introduce FastDraft, a novel and efficient approach for pre-training and aligning a draft model to any large language model by incorporating efficient pre-training, followed by fine-tuning over synthetic datasets generated by the target model. We demonstrate FastDraft by training two highly parameter efficient drafts for the popular Phi-3-mini and Llama-3.1-8B models. Using FastDraft, we were able to produce a draft with approximately 10 billion tokens on a single server with 8 Intel^circledR Gaudi^circledR 2 accelerators in under 24 hours. Our results show that the draft model achieves impressive results in key metrics of acceptance rate, block efficiency and up to 3x memory bound speed up when evaluated on code completion and up to 2x in summarization, text completion and instruction tasks. We validate our theoretical findings through benchmarking on the latest Intel^circledR Core^{tiny TM} Ultra, achieving a wall-clock time speedup of up to 2x, indicating a significant reduction in runtime. Due to its high quality, FastDraft unlocks large language models inference on AI-PC and other edge-devices.

We present an online post-hoc calibration method, called Online Platt Scaling (OPS), which combines the Platt scaling technique with online logistic regression. We demonstrate that OPS smoothly adapts between i.i.d. and non-i.i.d. settings with distribution drift. Further, in scenarios where the best Platt scaling model is itself miscalibrated, we enhance OPS by incorporating a recently developed technique called calibeating to make it more robust. Theoretically, our resulting OPS+calibeating method is guaranteed to be calibrated for adversarial outcome sequences. Empirically, it is effective on a range of synthetic and real-world datasets, with and without distribution drifts, achieving superior performance without hyperparameter tuning. Finally, we extend all OPS ideas to the beta scaling method.

Large Language Models (LLMs) excel at single-turn tasks such as instruction following and summarization, yet real-world deployments require sustained multi-turn interactions where user goals and conversational context persist and evolve. A recurring challenge in this setting is context drift: the gradual divergence of a model's outputs from goal-consistent behavior across turns. Unlike single-turn errors, drift unfolds temporally and is poorly captured by static evaluation metrics. In this work, we present a study of context drift in multi-turn interactions and propose a simple dynamical framework to interpret its behavior. We formalize drift as the turn-wise KL divergence between the token-level predictive distributions of the test model and a goal-consistent reference model, and propose a recurrence model that interprets its evolution as a bounded stochastic process with restoring forces and controllable interventions. We instantiate this framework in both synthetic long-horizon rewriting tasks and realistic user-agent simulations such as in tau-Bench, measuring drift for several open-weight LLMs that are used as user simulators. Our experiments consistently reveal stable, noise-limited equilibria rather than runaway degradation, and demonstrate that simple reminder interventions reliably reduce divergence in line with theoretical predictions. Together, these results suggest that multi-turn drift can be understood as a controllable equilibrium phenomenon rather than as inevitable decay, providing a foundation for studying and mitigating context drift in extended interactions.

As hyperparameter tuning becomes increasingly costly at scale, efficient tuning methods are essential. Yet principles for guiding hyperparameter tuning remain limited. In this work, we seek to establish such principles by considering a broad range of hyperparameters, including batch size, learning rate, and weight decay. We identify a phenomenon we call trajectory invariance, where pre-training loss curves, gradient noise, and gradient norm exhibit invariance--closely overlapping--with respect to a quantity that combines learning rate and weight decay. This phenomenon effectively reduces the original two-dimensional hyperparameter space to one dimension, yielding an efficient tuning rule: follow the salient direction revealed by trajectory invariance. Furthermore, we refine previous scaling laws and challenge several existing viewpoints. Overall, our work proposes new principles for efficient tuning and inspires future research on scaling laws.

This paper considers the problem of variable selection allowing for parameter instability. It distinguishes between signal and pseudo-signal variables that are correlated with the target variable, and noise variables that are not, and investigate the asymptotic properties of the One Covariate at a Time Multiple Testing (OCMT) method proposed by Chudik et al. (2018) under parameter insatiability. It is established that OCMT continues to asymptotically select an approximating model that includes all the signals and none of the noise variables. Properties of post selection regressions are also investigated, and in-sample fit of the selected regression is shown to have the oracle property. The theoretical results support the use of unweighted observations at the selection stage of OCMT, whilst applying down-weighting of observations only at the forecasting stage. Monte Carlo and empirical applications show that OCMT without down-weighting at the selection stage yields smaller mean squared forecast errors compared to Lasso, Adaptive Lasso, and boosting.

The friction coefficient of a particle can depend on its position as it does when the particle is near a wall. We formulate the dynamics of particles with such state-dependent friction coefficients in terms of a general Langevin equation with multiplicative noise, whose evaluation requires the introduction of specific rules. Two common conventions, the Ito and the Stratonovich, provide alternative rules for evaluation of the noise, but other conventions are possible. We show the requirement that a particle's distribution function approach the Boltzmann distribution at long times dictates that a drift term must be added to the Langevin equation. This drift term is proportional to the derivative of the diffusion coefficient times a factor that depends on the convention used to define the multiplicative noise. We explore the consequences of this result in a number examples with spatially varying diffusion coefficients. We also derive path integral representations for arbitrary interpretation of the noise, and use it in a perturbative study of correlations in a simple system.

We study nonparametric density estimation in non-stationary drift settings. Given a sequence of independent samples taken from a distribution that gradually changes in time, the goal is to compute the best estimate for the current distribution. We prove tight minimax risk bounds for both discrete and continuous smooth densities, where the minimum is over all possible estimates and the maximum is over all possible distributions that satisfy the drift constraints. Our technique handles a broad class of drift models, and generalizes previous results on agnostic learning under drift.

We propose a general methodology for recovering preference parameters from data on choices and response times. Our methods yield estimates with fast (1/n for n data points) convergence rates when specialized to the popular Drift Diffusion Model (DDM), but are broadly applicable to generalizations of the DDM as well as to alternative models of decision making that make use of response time data. The paper develops an empirical application to an experiment on intertemporal choice, showing that the use of response times delivers predictive accuracy and matters for the estimation of economically relevant parameters.

We present a straightforward statistical test to detect certain violations of the assumption that the data are Independent and Identically Distributed (IID). The specific form of violation considered is common across real-world applications: whether the examples are ordered in the dataset such that almost adjacent examples tend to have more similar feature values (e.g. due to distributional drift, or attractive interactions between datapoints). Based on a k-Nearest Neighbors estimate, our approach can be used to audit any multivariate numeric data as well as other data types (image, text, audio, etc.) that can be numerically represented, perhaps with model embeddings. Compared with existing methods to detect drift or auto-correlation, our approach is both applicable to more types of data and also able to detect a wider variety of IID violations in practice. Code: https://github.com/cleanlab/cleanlab

We study the bi-parameter local linearization of the one-dimensional nonlinear stochastic wave equation driven by a Gaussian noise, which is white in time and has a spatially homogeneous covariance structure of Riesz-kernel type. We establish that the second-order increments of the solution can be approximated by those of the corresponding linearized wave equation, modulated by the diffusion coefficient. These findings extend the previous results of Huang et al. HOO2024, which addressed the case of space-time white noise. As applications, we analyze the quadratic variation of the solution and construct a consistent estimator for the diffusion parameter.

We study inference-time scaling for diffusion models, where the goal is to adapt a pre-trained model to new target distributions without retraining. Existing guidance-based methods are simple but introduce bias, while particle-based corrections suffer from weight degeneracy and high computational cost. We introduce DriftLite, a lightweight, training-free particle-based approach that steers the inference dynamics on the fly with provably optimal stability control. DriftLite exploits a previously unexplored degree of freedom in the Fokker-Planck equation between the drift and particle potential, and yields two practical instantiations: Variance- and Energy-Controlling Guidance (VCG/ECG) for approximating the optimal drift with minimal overhead. Across Gaussian mixture models, particle systems, and large-scale protein-ligand co-folding problems, DriftLite consistently reduces variance and improves sample quality over pure guidance and sequential Monte Carlo baselines. These results highlight a principled, efficient route toward scalable inference-time adaptation of diffusion models.

Parameter generation has struggled to scale up for a long time, significantly limiting its range of applications. In this study, we introduce Recurrent diffusion for large-scale Parameter Generation, called RPG. We first divide the trained parameters into non-overlapping parts, after which a recurrent model is proposed to learn their relationships. The recurrent model's outputs, as conditions, are then fed into a diffusion model to generate the neural network parameters. Using only a single GPU, recurrent diffusion enables us to generate popular vision and language models such as ConvNeXt-L and LoRA parameters of LLaMA-7B. Meanwhile, across various architectures and tasks, the generated parameters consistently perform comparable results over trained networks. Notably, our approach also shows the potential to generate models for handling unseen tasks, which largely increases the practicality of parameter generation. Our code is available https://github.com/NUS-HPC-AI-Lab/Recurrent-Parameter-Generation{here}.

Many problems in astrophysics cover multiple orders of magnitude in spatial and temporal scales. While simulating systems that experience rapid changes in these conditions, it is essential to adapt the (time-) step size to capture the behavior of the system during those rapid changes and use a less accurate time step at other, less demanding, moments. We encounter three problems with traditional methods. Firstly, making such changes requires expert knowledge of the astrophysics as well as of the details of the numerical implementation. Secondly, some parameters that determine the time-step size are fixed throughout the simulation, which means that they do not adapt to the rapidly changing conditions of the problem. Lastly, we would like the choice of time-step size to balance accuracy and computation effort. We address these challenges with Reinforcement Learning by training it to select the time-step size dynamically. We use the integration of a system of three equal-mass bodies that move due to their mutual gravity as an example of its application. With our method, the selected integration parameter adapts to the specific requirements of the problem, both in terms of computation time and accuracy while eliminating the expert knowledge needed to set up these simulations. Our method produces results competitive to existing methods and improve the results found with the most commonly-used values of time-step parameter. This method can be applied to other integrators without further retraining. We show that this extrapolation works for variable time-step integrators but does not perform to the desired accuracy for fixed time-step integrators.

In several recently proposed stochastic optimization methods (e.g. RMSProp, Adam, Adadelta), parameter updates are scaled by the inverse square roots of exponential moving averages of squared past gradients. Maintaining these per-parameter second-moment estimators requires memory equal to the number of parameters. For the case of neural network weight matrices, we propose maintaining only the per-row and per-column sums of these moving averages, and estimating the per-parameter second moments based on these sums. We demonstrate empirically that this method produces similar results to the baseline. Secondly, we show that adaptive methods can produce larger-than-desired updates when the decay rate of the second moment accumulator is too slow. We propose update clipping and a gradually increasing decay rate scheme as remedies. Combining these methods and dropping momentum, we achieve comparable results to the published Adam regime in training the Transformer model on the WMT 2014 English-German machine translation task, while using very little auxiliary storage in the optimizer. Finally, we propose scaling the parameter updates based on the scale of the parameters themselves.

We introduce a new family of physics-inspired generative models termed PFGM++ that unifies diffusion models and Poisson Flow Generative Models (PFGM). These models realize generative trajectories for N dimensional data by embedding paths in N{+}D dimensional space while still controlling the progression with a simple scalar norm of the D additional variables. The new models reduce to PFGM when D{=}1 and to diffusion models when D{to}infty. The flexibility of choosing D allows us to trade off robustness against rigidity as increasing D results in more concentrated coupling between the data and the additional variable norms. We dispense with the biased large batch field targets used in PFGM and instead provide an unbiased perturbation-based objective similar to diffusion models. To explore different choices of D, we provide a direct alignment method for transferring well-tuned hyperparameters from diffusion models (D{to} infty) to any finite D values. Our experiments show that models with finite D can be superior to previous state-of-the-art diffusion models on CIFAR-10/FFHQ 64{times}64 datasets, with FID scores of 1.91/2.43 when D{=}2048/128. In class-conditional setting, D{=}2048 yields current state-of-the-art FID of 1.74 on CIFAR-10. In addition, we demonstrate that models with smaller D exhibit improved robustness against modeling errors. Code is available at https://github.com/Newbeeer/pfgmpp

Real-world large language model deployments (e.g., conversational AI systems, code generation assistants) naturally generate abundant implicit user dissatisfaction (DSAT) signals, as users iterate toward better answers through refinements, corrections, and expressed preferences, while explicit satisfaction (SAT) feedback is scarce. Existing preference learning approaches are poorly aligned with this data profile, as they rely on costly human annotations or assume plentiful positive responses. In this paper, we introduce DRIFT (Dissatisfaction-Refined Iterative preFerence Training), which anchors training on real-world DSAT signals and samples positives dynamically from the evolving policy. Empirically, DRIFT models trained on real-world WildFeedback datasets and synthetic UltraFeedback datasets achieve up to +6.23\% (7B) / +7.61\% (14B) on WildBench Task Score and up to +8.95\% (7B) / +12.29\% (14B) on AlpacaEval2 win rate over base models, outperforming strong baseline methods such as iterative DPO and SPIN. At larger scales, the improvements are particularly pronounced: 14B models trained with DRIFT surpass GPT-4o-mini on WildBench. Further analysis shows that DRIFT also preserves exploratory capacity, yielding more diverse high-reward solutions rather than collapsing to narrow subsets. Theoretically, we demonstrate that this design preserves preference margins and avoids the gradient degeneration. These results show that DRIFT is an effective and scalable recipe for real-world post-training that leverages the most abundant and informative signal. The code and data are available at https://github.com/cacayaya/DRIFT.git.

Varying dynamics parameters in simulation is a popular Domain Randomization (DR) approach for overcoming the reality gap in Reinforcement Learning (RL). Nevertheless, DR heavily hinges on the choice of the sampling distribution of the dynamics parameters, since high variability is crucial to regularize the agent's behavior but notoriously leads to overly conservative policies when randomizing excessively. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to address sim-to-real transfer, which automatically shapes dynamics distributions during training in simulation without requiring real-world data. We introduce DOmain RAndomization via Entropy MaximizatiON (DORAEMON), a constrained optimization problem that directly maximizes the entropy of the training distribution while retaining generalization capabilities. In achieving this, DORAEMON gradually increases the diversity of sampled dynamics parameters as long as the probability of success of the current policy is sufficiently high. We empirically validate the consistent benefits of DORAEMON in obtaining highly adaptive and generalizable policies, i.e. solving the task at hand across the widest range of dynamics parameters, as opposed to representative baselines from the DR literature. Notably, we also demonstrate the Sim2Real applicability of DORAEMON through its successful zero-shot transfer in a robotic manipulation setup under unknown real-world parameters.

In recent years, the development of diffusion models has led to significant progress in image and video generation tasks, with pre-trained models like the Stable Diffusion series playing a crucial role. Inspired by model pruning which lightens large pre-trained models by removing unimportant parameters, we propose a novel model fine-tuning method to make full use of these ineffective parameters and enable the pre-trained model with new task-specified capabilities. In this work, we first investigate the importance of parameters in pre-trained diffusion models, and discover that the smallest 10% to 20% of parameters by absolute values do not contribute to the generation process. Based on this observation, we propose a method termed SaRA that re-utilizes these temporarily ineffective parameters, equating to optimizing a sparse weight matrix to learn the task-specific knowledge. To mitigate overfitting, we propose a nuclear-norm-based low-rank sparse training scheme for efficient fine-tuning. Furthermore, we design a new progressive parameter adjustment strategy to make full use of the re-trained/finetuned parameters. Finally, we propose a novel unstructural backpropagation strategy, which significantly reduces memory costs during fine-tuning. Our method enhances the generative capabilities of pre-trained models in downstream applications and outperforms traditional fine-tuning methods like LoRA in maintaining model's generalization ability. We validate our approach through fine-tuning experiments on SD models, demonstrating significant improvements. SaRA also offers a practical advantage that requires only a single line of code modification for efficient implementation and is seamlessly compatible with existing methods.

The change in data distribution over time, also known as concept drift, poses a significant challenge to the reliability of online learning methods. Existing methods typically require model retraining or drift detection, both of which demand high computational costs and are often unsuitable for real-time applications. To address these limitations, a lightweight, fast and efficient random vector functional-link network termed Lite-RVFL is proposed, capable of adapting to concept drift without drift detection and retraining. Lite-RVFL introduces a novel objective function that assigns weights exponentially increasing to new samples, thereby emphasizing recent data and enabling timely adaptation. Theoretical analysis confirms the feasibility of this objective function for drift adaptation, and an efficient incremental update rule is derived. Experimental results on a real-world safety assessment task validate the efficiency, effectiveness in adapting to drift, and potential to capture temporal patterns of Lite-RVFL. The source code is available at https://github.com/songqiaohu/Lite-RVFL.

One puzzling artifact in machine learning dubbed grokking is where delayed generalization is achieved tenfolds of iterations after near perfect overfitting to the training data. Focusing on the long delay itself on behalf of machine learning practitioners, our goal is to accelerate generalization of a model under grokking phenomenon. By regarding a series of gradients of a parameter over training iterations as a random signal over time, we can spectrally decompose the parameter trajectories under gradient descent into two components: the fast-varying, overfitting-yielding component and the slow-varying, generalization-inducing component. This analysis allows us to accelerate the grokking phenomenon more than times 50 with only a few lines of code that amplifies the slow-varying components of gradients. The experiments show that our algorithm applies to diverse tasks involving images, languages, and graphs, enabling practical availability of this peculiar artifact of sudden generalization. Our code is available at https://github.com/ironjr/grokfast.

Automated Machine Learning (AutoML) systems have been shown to efficiently build good models for new datasets. However, it is often not clear how well they can adapt when the data evolves over time. The main goal of this study is to understand the effect of data stream challenges such as concept drift on the performance of AutoML methods, and which adaptation strategies can be employed to make them more robust. To that end, we propose 6 concept drift adaptation strategies and evaluate their effectiveness on different AutoML approaches. We do this for a variety of AutoML approaches for building machine learning pipelines, including those that leverage Bayesian optimization, genetic programming, and random search with automated stacking. These are evaluated empirically on real-world and synthetic data streams with different types of concept drift. Based on this analysis, we propose ways to develop more sophisticated and robust AutoML techniques.

We derive an expression for the variation between parallel trajectories in phenotypic evolution, extending the well known result that predicts the mean evolutionary path in adaptive dynamics or quantitative genetics. We show how this expression gives rise to the notion of fluctuation domains - parts of the fitness landscape where the rate of evolution is very predictable (due to fluctuation dissipation) and parts where it is highly variable (due to fluctuation enhancement). These fluctuation domains are determined by the curvature of the fitness landscape. Regions of the fitness landscape with positive curvature, such as adaptive valleys or branching points, experience enhancement. Regions with negative curvature, such as adaptive peaks, experience dissipation. We explore these dynamics in the ecological scenarios of implicit and explicit competition for a limiting resource.

Ecological systems are dynamic and policies to manage them need to respond to that variation. However, policy adjustments will sometimes be costly, which means that fine-tuning a policy to track variability in the environment very tightly will only sometimes be worthwhile. We use a classic fisheries management question -- how to manage a stochastically varying population using annually varying quotas in order to maximize profit -- to examine how costs of policy adjustment change optimal management recommendations. Costs of policy adjustment (here changes in fishing quotas through time) could take different forms. For example, these costs may respond to the size of the change being implemented, or there could be a fixed cost any time a quota change is made. We show how different forms of policy costs have contrasting implications for optimal policies. Though it is frequently assumed that costs to adjusting policies will dampen variation in the policy, we show that certain cost structures can actually increase variation through time. We further show that failing to account for adjustment costs has a consistently worse economic impact than would assuming these costs are present when they are not.

The objective of this study is to evaluate the potential for History Matching (HM) to tune a climate system with multi-scale dynamics. By considering a toy climate model, namely, the two-scale Lorenz96 model and producing experiments in perfect-model setting, we explore in detail how several built-in choices need to be carefully tested. We also demonstrate the importance of introducing physical expertise in the range of parameters, a priori to running HM. Finally we revisit a classical procedure in climate model tuning, that consists of tuning the slow and fast components separately. By doing so in the Lorenz96 model, we illustrate the non-uniqueness of plausible parameters and highlight the specificity of metrics emerging from the coupling. This paper contributes also to bridging the communities of uncertainty quantification, machine learning and climate modeling, by making connections between the terms used by each community for the same concept and presenting promising collaboration avenues that would benefit climate modeling research.

We discover that common diffusion noise schedules do not enforce the last timestep to have zero signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), and some implementations of diffusion samplers do not start from the last timestep. Such designs are flawed and do not reflect the fact that the model is given pure Gaussian noise at inference, creating a discrepancy between training and inference. We show that the flawed design causes real problems in existing implementations. In Stable Diffusion, it severely limits the model to only generate images with medium brightness and prevents it from generating very bright and dark samples. We propose a few simple fixes: (1) rescale the noise schedule to enforce zero terminal SNR; (2) train the model with v prediction; (3) change the sampler to always start from the last timestep; (4) rescale classifier-free guidance to prevent over-exposure. These simple changes ensure the diffusion process is congruent between training and inference and allow the model to generate samples more faithful to the original data distribution.

We propose a method to easily modify existing offline Recommender Systems to run online using Transfer Learning. Online Learning for Recommender Systems has two main advantages: quality and scale. Like many Machine Learning algorithms in production if not regularly retrained will suffer from Concept Drift. A policy that is updated frequently online can adapt to drift faster than a batch system. This is especially true for user-interaction systems like recommenders where the underlying distribution can shift drastically to follow user behaviour. As a platform grows rapidly like Grubhub, the cost of running batch training jobs becomes material. A shift from stateless batch learning offline to stateful incremental learning online can recover, for example, at Grubhub, up to a 45x cost savings and a +20% metrics increase. There are a few challenges to overcome with the transition to online stateful learning, namely convergence, non-stationary embeddings and off-policy evaluation, which we explore from our experiences running this system in production.

The statistical distribution of content uploaded and searched on media sharing sites changes over time due to seasonal, sociological and technical factors. We investigate the impact of this "content drift" for large-scale similarity search tools, based on nearest neighbor search in embedding space. Unless a costly index reconstruction is performed frequently, content drift degrades the search accuracy and efficiency. The degradation is especially severe since, in general, both the query and database distributions change. We introduce and analyze real-world image and video datasets for which temporal information is available over a long time period. Based on the learnings, we devise DeDrift, a method that updates embedding quantizers to continuously adapt large-scale indexing structures on-the-fly. DeDrift almost eliminates the accuracy degradation due to the query and database content drift while being up to 100x faster than a full index reconstruction.

Although deep learning has produced dazzling successes for applications of image, speech, and video processing in the past few years, most trainings are with suboptimal hyper-parameters, requiring unnecessarily long training times. Setting the hyper-parameters remains a black art that requires years of experience to acquire. This report proposes several efficient ways to set the hyper-parameters that significantly reduce training time and improves performance. Specifically, this report shows how to examine the training validation/test loss function for subtle clues of underfitting and overfitting and suggests guidelines for moving toward the optimal balance point. Then it discusses how to increase/decrease the learning rate/momentum to speed up training. Our experiments show that it is crucial to balance every manner of regularization for each dataset and architecture. Weight decay is used as a sample regularizer to show how its optimal value is tightly coupled with the learning rates and momentums. Files to help replicate the results reported here are available.

Recent studies show that Large Language Models (LLMs) with safety alignment can be jail-broken by fine-tuning on a dataset mixed with harmful data. First time in the literature, we show that the jail-broken effect can be mitigated by separating states in the finetuning stage to optimize the alignment and user datasets. Unfortunately, our subsequent study shows that this simple Bi-State Optimization (BSO) solution experiences convergence instability when steps invested in its alignment state is too small, leading to downgraded alignment performance. By statistical analysis, we show that the excess drift towards consensus could be a probable reason for the instability. To remedy this issue, we propose Lazy(i) safety alignment (Lisa), which introduces a proximal term to constraint the drift of each state. Theoretically, the benefit of the proximal term is supported by the convergence analysis, wherein we show that a sufficient large proximal factor is necessary to guarantee Lisa's convergence. Empirically, our results on four downstream finetuning tasks show that Lisa with a proximal term can significantly increase alignment performance while maintaining the LLM's accuracy on the user tasks. Code is available at https://github.com/git-disl/Lisa.

Temporal data such as time series can be viewed as discretized measurements of the underlying function. To build a generative model for such data we have to model the stochastic process that governs it. We propose a solution by defining the denoising diffusion model in the function space which also allows us to naturally handle irregularly-sampled observations. The forward process gradually adds noise to functions, preserving their continuity, while the learned reverse process removes the noise and returns functions as new samples. To this end, we define suitable noise sources and introduce novel denoising and score-matching models. We show how our method can be used for multivariate probabilistic forecasting and imputation, and how our model can be interpreted as a neural process.

Differentiable particle filters are an emerging class of sequential Bayesian inference techniques that use neural networks to construct components in state space models. Existing approaches are mostly based on offline supervised training strategies. This leads to the delay of the model deployment and the obtained filters are susceptible to distribution shift of test-time data. In this paper, we propose an online learning framework for differentiable particle filters so that model parameters can be updated as data arrive. The technical constraint is that there is no known ground truth state information in the online inference setting. We address this by adopting an unsupervised loss to construct the online model updating procedure, which involves a sequence of filtering operations for online maximum likelihood-based parameter estimation. We empirically evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed method, and compare it with supervised learning methods in simulation settings including a multivariate linear Gaussian state-space model and a simulated object tracking experiment.

In recent years, diffusion models trained on equilibrium molecular distributions have proven effective for sampling biomolecules. Beyond direct sampling, the score of such a model can also be used to derive the forces that act on molecular systems. However, while classical diffusion sampling usually recovers the training distribution, the corresponding energy-based interpretation of the learned score is often inconsistent with this distribution, even for low-dimensional toy systems. We trace this inconsistency to inaccuracies of the learned score at very small diffusion timesteps, where the model must capture the correct evolution of the data distribution. In this regime, diffusion models fail to satisfy the Fokker--Planck equation, which governs the evolution of the score. We interpret this deviation as one source of the observed inconsistencies and propose an energy-based diffusion model with a Fokker--Planck-derived regularization term to enforce consistency. We demonstrate our approach by sampling and simulating multiple biomolecular systems, including fast-folding proteins, and by introducing a state-of-the-art transferable Boltzmann emulator for dipeptides that supports simulation and achieves improved consistency and efficient sampling. Our code, model weights, and self-contained JAX and PyTorch notebooks are available at https://github.com/noegroup/ScoreMD.

Recent years have witnessed significant progress in developing efficient training and fast sampling approaches for diffusion models. A recent remarkable advancement is the use of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) to describe data perturbation and generative modeling in a unified mathematical framework. In this paper, we reveal several intriguing geometric structures of diffusion models and contribute a simple yet powerful interpretation to their sampling dynamics. Through carefully inspecting a popular variance-exploding SDE and its marginal-preserving ordinary differential equation (ODE) for sampling, we discover that the data distribution and the noise distribution are smoothly connected with an explicit, quasi-linear sampling trajectory, and another implicit denoising trajectory, which even converges faster in terms of visual quality. We also establish a theoretical relationship between the optimal ODE-based sampling and the classic mean-shift (mode-seeking) algorithm, with which we can characterize the asymptotic behavior of diffusion models and identify the score deviation. These new geometric observations enable us to improve previous sampling algorithms, re-examine latent interpolation, as well as re-explain the working principles of distillation-based fast sampling techniques.

Teams that have trained large Transformer-based models have reported training instabilities at large scale that did not appear when training with the same hyperparameters at smaller scales. Although the causes of such instabilities are of scientific interest, the amount of resources required to reproduce them has made investigation difficult. In this work, we seek ways to reproduce and study training stability and instability at smaller scales. First, we focus on two sources of training instability described in previous work: the growth of logits in attention layers (Dehghani et al., 2023) and divergence of the output logits from the log probabilities (Chowdhery et al., 2022). By measuring the relationship between learning rate and loss across scales, we show that these instabilities also appear in small models when training at high learning rates, and that mitigations previously employed at large scales are equally effective in this regime. This prompts us to investigate the extent to which other known optimizer and model interventions influence the sensitivity of the final loss to changes in the learning rate. To this end, we study methods such as warm-up, weight decay, and the muParam (Yang et al., 2022), and combine techniques to train small models that achieve similar losses across orders of magnitude of learning rate variation. Finally, to conclude our exploration we study two cases where instabilities can be predicted before they emerge by examining the scaling behavior of model activation and gradient norms.

Data Drift is the phenomenon where the generating model behind the data changes over time. Due to data drift, any model built on the past training data becomes less relevant and inaccurate over time. Thus, detecting and controlling for data drift is critical in machine learning models. Hierarchical Temporal Memory (HTM) is a machine learning model developed by Jeff Hawkins, inspired by how the human brain processes information. It is a biologically inspired model of memory that is similar in structure to the neocortex, and whose performance is claimed to be comparable to state of the art models in detecting anomalies in time series data. Another unique benefit of HTMs is its independence from training and testing cycle; all the learning takes place online with streaming data and no separate training and testing cycle is required. In sequential learning paradigm, Sequential Probability Ratio Test (SPRT) offers some unique benefit for online learning and inference. This paper proposes a novel hybrid framework combining HTM and SPRT for real-time data drift detection and anomaly identification. Unlike existing data drift methods, our approach eliminates frequent retraining and ensures low false positive rates. HTMs currently work with one dimensional or univariate data. In a second study, we also propose an application of HTM in multidimensional supervised scenario for anomaly detection by combining the outputs of multiple HTM columns, one for each dimension of the data, through a neural network. Experimental evaluations demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms conventional drift detection techniques like the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test, Wasserstein distance, and Population Stability Index (PSI) in terms of accuracy, adaptability, and computational efficiency. Our experiments also provide insights into optimizing hyperparameters for real-time deployment in domains such as Telecom.

The cost of hyperparameter tuning in deep learning has been rising with model sizes, prompting practitioners to find new tuning methods using a proxy of smaller networks. One such proposal uses muP parameterized networks, where the optimal hyperparameters for small width networks transfer to networks with arbitrarily large width. However, in this scheme, hyperparameters do not transfer across depths. As a remedy, we study residual networks with a residual branch scale of 1/text{depth} in combination with the muP parameterization. We provide experiments demonstrating that residual architectures including convolutional ResNets and Vision Transformers trained with this parameterization exhibit transfer of optimal hyperparameters across width and depth on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet. Furthermore, our empirical findings are supported and motivated by theory. Using recent developments in the dynamical mean field theory (DMFT) description of neural network learning dynamics, we show that this parameterization of ResNets admits a well-defined feature learning joint infinite-width and infinite-depth limit and show convergence of finite-size network dynamics towards this limit.

Machine learning models often experience performance degradation post-deployment due to shifts in data distribution. It is challenging to assess model's performance accurately when labels are missing or delayed. Existing proxy methods, such as drift detection, fail to measure the effects of these shifts adequately. To address this, we introduce a new method, Probabilistic Adaptive Performance Estimation (PAPE), for evaluating classification models on unlabeled data that accurately quantifies the impact of covariate shift on model performance. It is model and data-type agnostic and works for various performance metrics. Crucially, PAPE operates independently of the original model, relying only on its predictions and probability estimates, and does not need any assumptions about the nature of the covariate shift, learning directly from data instead. We tested PAPE on tabular data using over 900 dataset-model combinations created from US census data, assessing its performance against multiple benchmarks. Overall, PAPE provided more accurate performance estimates than other evaluated methodologies.

The widespread applicability and increasing omnipresence of LLMs have instigated a need to align LLM responses to user and stakeholder preferences. Many preference optimization approaches have been proposed that fine-tune LLM parameters to achieve good alignment. However, such parameter tuning is known to interfere with model performance on many tasks. Moreover, keeping up with shifting user preferences is tricky in such a situation. Decoding-time alignment with reward model guidance solves these issues at the cost of increased inference time. However, most of such methods fail to strike the right balance between exploration and exploitation of reward -- often due to the conflated formulation of these two aspects - to give well-aligned responses. To remedy this we decouple these two aspects and implement them in an evolutionary fashion: exploration is enforced by decoding from mutated instructions and exploitation is represented as the periodic replacement of poorly-rewarded generations with well-rewarded ones. Empirical evidences indicate that this strategy outperforms many preference optimization and decode-time alignment approaches on two widely accepted alignment benchmarks AlpacaEval 2 and MT-Bench. Our implementation will be available at: https://darwin-alignment.github.io.

Hyperparameter tuning is one of the essential steps to guarantee the convergence of machine learning models. We argue that intuition about the optimal choice of hyperparameters for stochastic gradient descent can be obtained by studying a neural network's phase diagram, in which each phase is characterised by distinctive dynamics of the singular values of weight matrices. Taking inspiration from disordered systems, we start from the observation that the loss landscape of a multilayer neural network with mean squared error can be interpreted as a disordered system in feature space, where the learnt features are mapped to soft spin degrees of freedom, the initial variance of the weight matrices is interpreted as the strength of the disorder, and temperature is given by the ratio of the learning rate and the batch size. As the model is trained, three phases can be identified, in which the dynamics of weight matrices is qualitatively different. Employing a Langevin equation for stochastic gradient descent, previously derived using Dyson Brownian motion, we demonstrate that the three dynamical regimes can be classified effectively, providing practical guidance for the choice of hyperparameters of the optimiser.

The performance of an algorithm often critically depends on its parameter configuration. While a variety of automated algorithm configuration methods have been proposed to relieve users from the tedious and error-prone task of manually tuning parameters, there is still a lot of untapped potential as the learned configuration is static, i.e., parameter settings remain fixed throughout the run. However, it has been shown that some algorithm parameters are best adjusted dynamically during execution, e.g., to adapt to the current part of the optimization landscape. Thus far, this is most commonly achieved through hand-crafted heuristics. A promising recent alternative is to automatically learn such dynamic parameter adaptation policies from data. In this article, we give the first comprehensive account of this new field of automated dynamic algorithm configuration (DAC), present a series of recent advances, and provide a solid foundation for future research in this field. Specifically, we (i) situate DAC in the broader historical context of AI research; (ii) formalize DAC as a computational problem; (iii) identify the methods used in prior-art to tackle this problem; (iv) conduct empirical case studies for using DAC in evolutionary optimization, AI planning, and machine learning.

Adapting to concept drift is a challenging task in machine learning, which is usually tackled using incremental learning techniques that periodically re-fit a learning model leveraging newly available data. A primary limitation of these techniques is their reliance on substantial amounts of data for retraining. The necessity of acquiring fresh data introduces temporal delays prior to retraining, potentially rendering the models inaccurate if a sudden concept drift occurs in-between two consecutive retrainings. In communication networks, such issue emerges when performing traffic forecasting following a~failure event: post-failure re-routing may induce a drastic shift in distribution and pattern of traffic data, thus requiring a timely model adaptation. In this work, we address this challenge for the problem of traffic forecasting and propose an approach that exploits adaptive learning algorithms, namely, liquid neural networks, which are capable of self-adaptation to abrupt changes in data patterns without requiring any retraining. Through extensive simulations of failure scenarios, we compare the predictive performance of our proposed approach to that of a reference method based on incremental learning. Experimental results show that our proposed approach outperforms incremental learning-based methods in situations where the shifts in traffic patterns are drastic.

Irregular sampling intervals and missing values in real-world time series data present challenges for conventional methods that assume consistent intervals and complete data. Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (Neural ODEs) offer an alternative approach, utilizing neural networks combined with ODE solvers to learn continuous latent representations through parameterized vector fields. Neural Stochastic Differential Equations (Neural SDEs) extend Neural ODEs by incorporating a diffusion term, although this addition is not trivial, particularly when addressing irregular intervals and missing values. Consequently, careful design of drift and diffusion functions is crucial for maintaining stability and enhancing performance, while incautious choices can result in adverse properties such as the absence of strong solutions, stochastic destabilization, or unstable Euler discretizations, significantly affecting Neural SDEs' performance. In this study, we propose three stable classes of Neural SDEs: Langevin-type SDE, Linear Noise SDE, and Geometric SDE. Then, we rigorously demonstrate their robustness in maintaining excellent performance under distribution shift, while effectively preventing overfitting. To assess the effectiveness of our approach, we conduct extensive experiments on four benchmark datasets for interpolation, forecasting, and classification tasks, and analyze the robustness of our methods with 30 public datasets under different missing rates. Our results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method in handling real-world irregular time series data.

This monograph presents the core principles that have guided the development of diffusion models, tracing their origins and showing how diverse formulations arise from shared mathematical ideas. Diffusion modeling starts by defining a forward process that gradually corrupts data into noise, linking the data distribution to a simple prior through a continuum of intermediate distributions. The goal is to learn a reverse process that transforms noise back into data while recovering the same intermediates. We describe three complementary views. The variational view, inspired by variational autoencoders, sees diffusion as learning to remove noise step by step. The score-based view, rooted in energy-based modeling, learns the gradient of the evolving data distribution, indicating how to nudge samples toward more likely regions. The flow-based view, related to normalizing flows, treats generation as following a smooth path that moves samples from noise to data under a learned velocity field. These perspectives share a common backbone: a time-dependent velocity field whose flow transports a simple prior to the data. Sampling then amounts to solving a differential equation that evolves noise into data along a continuous trajectory. On this foundation, the monograph discusses guidance for controllable generation, efficient numerical solvers, and diffusion-motivated flow-map models that learn direct mappings between arbitrary times. It provides a conceptual and mathematically grounded understanding of diffusion models for readers with basic deep-learning knowledge.

In this work, we prove existence and uniqueness of a bounded viscosity solution for the Cauchy problem of degenerate parabolic equations with variable exponent coefficients. We construct the solution directly using the stochastic representation, then verify it satisfies the Cauchy problem. The corresponding SDE, on the other hand, allows the drift and diffusion coefficients to respond nonlinearly to the current state through the state-dependent variable exponents, and thus, extends the expressive power of classical SDEs to better capture complex dynamics. To validate our theoretical framework, we conduct comprehensive numerical experiments comparing finite difference solutions (Crank-Nicolson on logarithmic grids) with Monte Carlo simulations of the SDE.

We numerically investigate some properties of unbalanced St\"{u}ckelberg holographic superconductors, by considering backreaction effects of fields on the background geometry. More precisely, we study the impacts of the chemical potential mismatch and St\"{u}ckelberg mechanism on the condensation and conductivity types (electrical, spin, mixed, thermo-electric, thermo-spin and thermal conductivity). Our results show that the St\"{u}ckelberg's model parameters C_{alpha} and alpha not only have significant impacts on the phase transition, but also affect the conductivity pseudo-gap and the strength of conductivity fluctuations. Moreover, the effects of these parameters on a system will be gradually reduced as the imbalance grows. We also find that the influence of alpha on the amplitude of conductivity fluctuations depends on the magnitude of the both C_{alpha} and deltamu/mu in the electric and thermal conductivity cases. This results in that increasing alpha can damp the conductivity fluctuations of an unbalanced system in contrast to balanced ones.

In many neural networks, different values of the parameters may result in the same loss value. Parameter space symmetries are loss-invariant transformations that change the model parameters. Teleportation applies such transformations to accelerate optimization. However, the exact mechanism behind this algorithm's success is not well understood. In this paper, we show that teleportation not only speeds up optimization in the short-term, but gives overall faster time to convergence. Additionally, teleporting to minima with different curvatures improves generalization, which suggests a connection between the curvature of the minimum and generalization ability. Finally, we show that integrating teleportation into a wide range of optimization algorithms and optimization-based meta-learning improves convergence. Our results showcase the versatility of teleportation and demonstrate the potential of incorporating symmetry in optimization.

Diffusion (score-based) generative models have been widely used for modeling various types of complex data, including images, audios, and point clouds. Recently, the deep connection between forward-backward stochastic differential equations (SDEs) and diffusion-based models has been revealed, and several new variants of SDEs are proposed (e.g., sub-VP, critically-damped Langevin) along this line. Despite the empirical success of the hand-crafted fixed forward SDEs, a great quantity of proper forward SDEs remain unexplored. In this work, we propose a general framework for parameterizing the diffusion model, especially the spatial part of the forward SDE. An abstract formalism is introduced with theoretical guarantees, and its connection with previous diffusion models is leveraged. We demonstrate the theoretical advantage of our method from an optimization perspective. Numerical experiments on synthetic datasets, MINIST and CIFAR10 are also presented to validate the effectiveness of our framework.

Long-tailed learning has garnered increasing attention due to its practical significance. Among the various approaches, the fine-tuning paradigm has gained considerable interest with the advent of foundation models. However, most existing methods primarily focus on leveraging knowledge from these models, overlooking the inherent biases introduced by the imbalanced training data they rely on. In this paper, we examine how such imbalances from pre-training affect long-tailed downstream tasks. Specifically, we find the imbalance biases inherited in foundation models on downstream task as parameter imbalance and data imbalance. During fine-tuning, we observe that parameter imbalance plays a more critical role, while data imbalance can be mitigated using existing re-balancing strategies. Moreover, we find that parameter imbalance cannot be effectively addressed by current re-balancing techniques, such as adjusting the logits, during training, unlike data imbalance. To tackle both imbalances simultaneously, we build our method on causal learning and view the incomplete semantic factor as the confounder, which brings spurious correlations between input samples and labels. To resolve the negative effects of this, we propose a novel backdoor adjustment method that learns the true causal effect between input samples and labels, rather than merely fitting the correlations in the data. Notably, we achieve an average performance increase of about 1.67% on each dataset.

In the era of proliferation of large language and image generation models, the phenomenon of "model collapse" refers to the situation whereby as a model is trained recursively on data generated from previous generations of itself over time, its performance degrades until the model eventually becomes completely useless, i.e the model collapses. In this work, we study this phenomenon in the setting of high-dimensional regression and obtain analytic formulae which quantitatively outline this phenomenon in a broad range of regimes. In the special case of polynomial decaying spectral and source conditions, we obtain modified scaling laws which exhibit new crossover phenomena from fast to slow rates. We also propose a simple strategy based on adaptive regularization to mitigate model collapse. Our theoretical results are validated with experiments.

We prove stability for a class of heterogeneous catalysis models in the L_p-setting. We consider a setting in a finite three-dimensional pore of cylinder-like geometry, with the lateral walls acting as a catalytic surface. Under a reasonable condition on the involved parameters, we show that given equilibria are normally stable, i.e. solutions are attracted at an exponential rate. The potential incidence of instability is discussed as well.

We present a new algorithm to optimize distributions defined implicitly by parameterized stochastic diffusions. Doing so allows us to modify the outcome distribution of sampling processes by optimizing over their parameters. We introduce a general framework for first-order optimization of these processes, that performs jointly, in a single loop, optimization and sampling steps. This approach is inspired by recent advances in bilevel optimization and automatic implicit differentiation, leveraging the point of view of sampling as optimization over the space of probability distributions. We provide theoretical guarantees on the performance of our method, as well as experimental results demonstrating its effectiveness in real-world settings.

Diffusion models offer a physically grounded framework for probabilistic weather forecasting, but their typical reliance on slow, iterative solvers during inference makes them impractical for subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) applications where long lead-times and domain-driven calibration are essential. To address this, we introduce Swift, a single-step consistency model that, for the first time, enables autoregressive finetuning of a probability flow model with a continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) objective. This eliminates the need for multi-model ensembling or parameter perturbations. Results show that Swift produces skillful 6-hourly forecasts that remain stable for up to 75 days, running 39times faster than state-of-the-art diffusion baselines while achieving forecast skill competitive with the numerical-based, operational IFS ENS. This marks a step toward efficient and reliable ensemble forecasting from medium-range to seasonal-scales.

We made a comparative analysis of numerical methods for multidimensional optimization. The main parameter is a number of computations of the test function to reach necessary accuracy, as it is computationally "slow". For complex functions, analytic differentiation by many parameters can cause problems associated with a significant complication of the program and thus slowing its operation. For comparison, we used the methods: "brute force" (or minimization on a regular grid), Monte Carlo, steepest descent, conjugate gradients, Brent's method (golden section search), parabolic interpolation etc. The Monte-Carlo method was applied to the eclipsing binary system AM Leo.

Organizations typically train large models individually. This is costly and time-consuming, particularly for large-scale foundation models. Such vertical production is known to be suboptimal. Inspired by this economic insight, we ask whether it is possible to leverage others' expertise by trading the constituent parts in models, i.e., sets of weights, as if they were market commodities. While recent advances in aligning and interpolating models suggest that doing so may be possible, a number of fundamental questions must be answered to create viable parameter markets. In this work, we address these basic questions, propose a framework containing the infrastructure necessary for market operations to take place, study strategies for exchanging parameters, and offer means for agents to monetize parameters. Excitingly, compared to agents who train siloed models from scratch, we show that it is possible to mutually gain by using the market, even in competitive settings. This suggests that the notion of parameter markets may be a useful paradigm for improving large-scale model training in the future.

Three key properties that are desired of trustworthy machine learning models deployed in high-stakes environments are fairness, explainability, and an ability to account for various kinds of "drift". While drifts in model accuracy, for example due to covariate shift, have been widely investigated, drifts in fairness metrics over time remain largely unexplored. In this paper, we propose FEAMOE, a novel "mixture-of-experts" inspired framework aimed at learning fairer, more explainable/interpretable models that can also rapidly adjust to drifts in both the accuracy and the fairness of a classifier. We illustrate our framework for three popular fairness measures and demonstrate how drift can be handled with respect to these fairness constraints. Experiments on multiple datasets show that our framework as applied to a mixture of linear experts is able to perform comparably to neural networks in terms of accuracy while producing fairer models. We then use the large-scale HMDA dataset and show that while various models trained on HMDA demonstrate drift with respect to both accuracy and fairness, FEAMOE can ably handle these drifts with respect to all the considered fairness measures and maintain model accuracy as well. We also prove that the proposed framework allows for producing fast Shapley value explanations, which makes computationally efficient feature attribution based explanations of model decisions readily available via FEAMOE.

We introduce a novel framework for efficient sampling from complex, unnormalised target distributions by exploiting multiscale dynamics. Traditional score-based sampling methods either rely on learned approximations of the score function or involve computationally expensive nested Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) loops. In contrast, the proposed approach leverages stochastic averaging within a slow-fast system of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) to estimate intermediate scores along a diffusion path without training or inner-loop MCMC. Two algorithms are developed under this framework: MultALMC, which uses multiscale annealed Langevin dynamics, and MultCDiff, based on multiscale controlled diffusions for the reverse-time Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Both overdamped and underdamped variants are considered, with theoretical guarantees of convergence to the desired diffusion path. The framework is extended to handle heavy-tailed target distributions using Student's t-based noise models and tailored fast-process dynamics. Empirical results across synthetic and real-world benchmarks, including multimodal and high-dimensional distributions, demonstrate that the proposed methods are competitive with existing samplers in terms of accuracy and efficiency, without the need for learned models.

There is an emerging interest in generating robust counterfactual explanations that would remain valid if the model is updated or changed even slightly. Towards finding robust counterfactuals, existing literature often assumes that the original model m and the new model M are bounded in the parameter space, i.e., |Params(M){-}Params(m)|{<}Delta. However, models can often change significantly in the parameter space with little to no change in their predictions or accuracy on the given dataset. In this work, we introduce a mathematical abstraction termed naturally-occurring model change, which allows for arbitrary changes in the parameter space such that the change in predictions on points that lie on the data manifold is limited. Next, we propose a measure -- that we call Stability -- to quantify the robustness of counterfactuals to potential model changes for differentiable models, e.g., neural networks. Our main contribution is to show that counterfactuals with sufficiently high value of Stability as defined by our measure will remain valid after potential ``naturally-occurring'' model changes with high probability (leveraging concentration bounds for Lipschitz function of independent Gaussians). Since our quantification depends on the local Lipschitz constant around a data point which is not always available, we also examine practical relaxations of our proposed measure and demonstrate experimentally how they can be incorporated to find robust counterfactuals for neural networks that are close, realistic, and remain valid after potential model changes.

In an unbounded plane, straight lines are used extensively for mathematical analysis. They are tools of convenience. However, those with high slope values become unbounded at a faster rate than the independent variable. So, straight lines, in this work, are made to be bounded by introducing a parametric nonlinear term that is positive. The straight lines are transformed into bounded nonlinear curves that become unbounded at a much slower rate than the independent variable. This transforming equation can be expressed as a continued fraction of straight lines. The continued fraction is real-valued and converges to the solutions of the transforming equation. Following Euler's method, the continued fraction has been reduced into an infinite series. The usefulness of the bounding nature of continued fraction is demonstrated by solving the problem of image classification. Parameters estimated on the Fashion-MNIST dataset of greyscale images using continued fraction of regression lines have less variance, converge quickly and are more accurate than the linear counterpart. Moreover, this multi-dimensional parametric estimation problem can be expressed on xy- plane using the parameters of the continued fraction and patterns emerge on planar plots.

The study of hardest and easiest fitness landscapes is an active area of research. Recently, Kaufmann, Larcher, Lengler and Zou conjectured that for the self-adjusting (1,lambda)-EA, Adversarial Dynamic BinVal (ADBV) is the hardest dynamic monotone function to optimize. We introduce the function Switching Dynamic BinVal (SDBV) which coincides with ADBV whenever the number of remaining zeros in the search point is strictly less than n/2, where n denotes the dimension of the search space. We show, using a combinatorial argument, that for the (1+1)-EA with any mutation rate p in [0,1], SDBV is drift-minimizing among the class of dynamic monotone functions. Our construction provides the first explicit example of an instance of the partially-ordered evolutionary algorithm (PO-EA) model with parameterized pessimism introduced by Colin, Doerr and F\'erey, building on work of Jansen. We further show that the (1+1)-EA optimizes SDBV in Theta(n^{3/2}) generations. Our simulations demonstrate matching runtimes for both static and self-adjusting (1,lambda) and (1+lambda)-EA. We further show, using an example of fixed dimension, that drift-minimization does not equal maximal runtime.

Majorities of distillation methods on pre-trained diffusion models or on pre-trained rectified flow, focus on either the distillation outputs or the trajectories between random noises and clean images to speed up sample generations from pre-trained models. In those trajectory-based distillation methods, consistency distillation requires the self-consistent trajectory projection to regulate the trajectory, which might avoid the common ODE approximation error {while still be concerning about sampling efficiencies}. At the same time, rectified flow distillations enforce straight trajectory for fast sampling, although an ODE solver is still required. In this work, we propose a trajectory distillation method, \modelname, that enjoys the benefits of both and enables few-step generations. TraFlow adopts the settings of consistency trajectory models, and further enforces the properties of self-consistency and straightness throughout the entire trajectory. These two properties are pursued by reaching a balance with following three targets: (1) reconstruct the output from pre-trained models; (2) learn the amount of changes by pre-trained models; (3) satisfy the self-consistency over its trajectory. Extensive experimental results have shown the effectiveness of our proposed method.

Colloquially speaking, image generation models based upon diffusion processes are frequently said to exhibit "hallucinations," samples that could never occur in the training data. But where do such hallucinations come from? In this paper, we study a particular failure mode in diffusion models, which we term mode interpolation. Specifically, we find that diffusion models smoothly "interpolate" between nearby data modes in the training set, to generate samples that are completely outside the support of the original training distribution; this phenomenon leads diffusion models to generate artifacts that never existed in real data (i.e., hallucinations). We systematically study the reasons for, and the manifestation of this phenomenon. Through experiments on 1D and 2D Gaussians, we show how a discontinuous loss landscape in the diffusion model's decoder leads to a region where any smooth approximation will cause such hallucinations. Through experiments on artificial datasets with various shapes, we show how hallucination leads to the generation of combinations of shapes that never existed. Finally, we show that diffusion models in fact know when they go out of support and hallucinate. This is captured by the high variance in the trajectory of the generated sample towards the final few backward sampling process. Using a simple metric to capture this variance, we can remove over 95% of hallucinations at generation time while retaining 96% of in-support samples. We conclude our exploration by showing the implications of such hallucination (and its removal) on the collapse (and stabilization) of recursive training on synthetic data with experiments on MNIST and 2D Gaussians dataset. We release our code at https://github.com/locuslab/diffusion-model-hallucination.

Straight line equation y=mx with slope m, when singularly perturbed as ay^3+y=mx with a positive parameter a, results in S-shaped curves or S-curves on a real plane. As arightarrow 0, we get back y=mx which is a cumulative distribution function of a continuous uniform distribution that describes the occurrence of every event in an interval to be equally probable. As arightarrowinfty, the derivative of y has finite support only at y=0 resembling a degenerate distribution. Based on these arguments, in this work, we propose that these S-curves can represent maximum entropy uniform distribution to a zero entropy single value. We also argue that these S-curves are superposable as they are only parametrically nonlinear but fundamentally linear. So far, the superposed forms have been used to capture the patterns of natural systems such as nonlinear dynamics of biological growth and kinetics of enzyme reactions. Here, we attempt to use the S-curve and its superposed form as statistical models. We fit the models on a classical dataset containing flower measurements of iris plants and analyze their usefulness in pattern recognition. Based on these models, we claim that any non-uniform pattern can be represented as a singular perturbation to uniform distribution. However, our parametric estimation procedure have some limitations such as sensitivity to initial conditions depending on the data at hand.

Diffusion models have shown promising ability in generating high-quality time series (TS) data. Despite the initial success, existing works mostly focus on the authenticity of data at the individual level, but pay less attention to preserving the population-level properties on the entire dataset. Such population-level properties include value distributions for each dimension and distributions of certain functional dependencies (e.g., cross-correlation, CC) between different dimensions. For instance, when generating house energy consumption TS data, the value distributions of the outside temperature and the kitchen temperature should be preserved, as well as the distribution of CC between them. Preserving such TS population-level properties is critical in maintaining the statistical insights of the datasets, mitigating model bias, and augmenting downstream tasks like TS prediction. Yet, it is often overlooked by existing models. Hence, data generated by existing models often bear distribution shifts from the original data. We propose Population-aware Diffusion for Time Series (PaD-TS), a new TS generation model that better preserves the population-level properties. The key novelties of PaD-TS include 1) a new training method explicitly incorporating TS population-level property preservation, and 2) a new dual-channel encoder model architecture that better captures the TS data structure. Empirical results in major benchmark datasets show that PaD-TS can improve the average CC distribution shift score between real and synthetic data by 5.9x while maintaining a performance comparable to state-of-the-art models on individual-level authenticity.

Continual Instruction Tuning (CIT) is adopted to continually instruct Large Models to follow human intent data by data. It is observed that existing gradient update would heavily destroy the performance on previous datasets during CIT process. Instead, Exponential Moving Average (EMA), owns the ability to trace previous parameters, which can aid in decreasing forgetting. Nonetheless, its stable balance weight fails to deal with the ever-changing datasets, leading to the out-of-balance between plasticity and stability. In this paper, we propose a general continual instruction tuning framework to address the challenge. Starting from the trade-off prerequisite and EMA update, we propose the plasticity and stability ideal condition. Based on Taylor expansion in the loss function, we find the optimal balance weight can be automatically determined by the gradients and learned parameters. Therefore, we propose a stable-plasticity balanced coefficient to avoid knowledge interference. Based on the semantic similarity of the instructions, we can determine whether to retrain or expand the training parameters and allocate the most suitable parameters for the testing instances. Extensive experiments across multiple continual instruction tuning benchmarks demonstrate that our approach not only enhances anti-forgetting capabilities but also significantly improves overall continual tuning performance. Our code is available at https://github.com/JingyangQiao/CoIN.

The curvature of ODE trajectories in diffusion models hinders their ability to generate high-quality images in a few number of function evaluations (NFE). In this paper, we propose a novel and effective approach to reduce trajectory curvature by utilizing adaptive conditions. By employing a extremely light-weight quantized encoder, our method incurs only an additional 1% of training parameters, eliminates the need for extra regularization terms, yet achieves significantly better sample quality. Our approach accelerates ODE sampling while preserving the downstream task image editing capabilities of SDE techniques. Extensive experiments verify that our method can generate high quality results under extremely limited sampling costs. With only 6 NFE, we achieve 5.14 FID on CIFAR-10, 6.91 FID on FFHQ 64x64 and 3.10 FID on AFHQv2.

Diffusion model-based inverse problem solvers have shown impressive performance, but are limited in speed, mostly as they require reverse diffusion sampling starting from noise. Several recent works have tried to alleviate this problem by building a diffusion process, directly bridging the clean and the corrupted for specific inverse problems. In this paper, we first unify these existing works under the name Direct Diffusion Bridges (DDB), showing that while motivated by different theories, the resulting algorithms only differ in the choice of parameters. Then, we highlight a critical limitation of the current DDB framework, namely that it does not ensure data consistency. To address this problem, we propose a modified inference procedure that imposes data consistency without the need for fine-tuning. We term the resulting method data Consistent DDB (CDDB), which outperforms its inconsistent counterpart in terms of both perception and distortion metrics, thereby effectively pushing the Pareto-frontier toward the optimum. Our proposed method achieves state-of-the-art results on both evaluation criteria, showcasing its superiority over existing methods.

Modern foundation models rely heavily on using scaling laws to guide crucial training decisions. Researchers often extrapolate the optimal architecture and hyper parameters settings from smaller training runs by describing the relationship between, loss, or task performance, and scale. All components of this process vary, from the specific equation being fit, to the training setup, to the optimization method. Each of these factors may affect the fitted law, and therefore, the conclusions of a given study. We discuss discrepancies in the conclusions that several prior works reach, on questions such as the optimal token to parameter ratio. We augment this discussion with our own analysis of the critical impact that changes in specific details may effect in a scaling study, and the resulting altered conclusions. Additionally, we survey over 50 papers that study scaling trends: while 45 of these papers quantify these trends using a power law, most under-report crucial details needed to reproduce their findings. To mitigate this, we we propose a checklist for authors to consider while contributing to scaling law research.

Real-world deployment of machine learning models is challenging because data evolves over time. While no model can work when data evolves in an arbitrary fashion, if there is some pattern to these changes, we might be able to design methods to address it. This paper addresses situations when data evolves gradually. We introduce a time-varying propensity score that can detect gradual shifts in the distribution of data which allows us to selectively sample past data to update the model -- not just similar data from the past like that of a standard propensity score but also data that evolved in a similar fashion in the past. The time-varying propensity score is quite general: we demonstrate different ways of implementing it and evaluate it on a variety of problems ranging from supervised learning (e.g., image classification problems) where data undergoes a sequence of gradual shifts, to reinforcement learning tasks (e.g., robotic manipulation and continuous control) where data shifts as the policy or the task changes.

Score-based diffusion models have emerged as one of the most promising frameworks for deep generative modelling, due to their state-of-the art performance in many generation tasks while relying on mathematical foundations such as stochastic differential equations (SDEs) and ordinary differential equations (ODEs). Empirically, it has been reported that ODE based samples are inferior to SDE based samples. In this paper we rigorously describe the range of dynamics and approximations that arise when training score-based diffusion models, including the true SDE dynamics, the neural approximations, the various approximate particle dynamics that result, as well as their associated Fokker--Planck equations and the neural network approximations of these Fokker--Planck equations. We systematically analyse the difference between the ODE and SDE dynamics of score-based diffusion models, and link it to an associated Fokker--Planck equation. We derive a theoretical upper bound on the Wasserstein 2-distance between the ODE- and SDE-induced distributions in terms of a Fokker--Planck residual. We also show numerically that conventional score-based diffusion models can exhibit significant differences between ODE- and SDE-induced distributions which we demonstrate using explicit comparisons. Moreover, we show numerically that reducing the Fokker--Planck residual by adding it as an additional regularisation term leads to closing the gap between ODE- and SDE-induced distributions. Our experiments suggest that this regularisation can improve the distribution generated by the ODE, however that this can come at the cost of degraded SDE sample quality.

We use tools from geometric statistics to analyze the usual estimation procedure of a template shape. This applies to shapes from landmarks, curves, surfaces, images etc. We demonstrate the asymptotic bias of the template shape estimation using the stratified geometry of the shape space. We give a Taylor expansion of the bias with respect to a parameter sigma describing the measurement error on the data. We propose two bootstrap procedures that quantify the bias and correct it, if needed. They are applicable for any type of shape data. We give a rule of thumb to provide intuition on whether the bias has to be corrected. This exhibits the parameters that control the bias' magnitude. We illustrate our results on simulated and real shape data.

Earth system models suffer from various structural and parametric errors in their representation of nonlinear, multi-scale processes, leading to uncertainties in their long-term projections. The effects of many of these errors (particularly those due to fast physics) can be quantified in short-term simulations, e.g., as differences between the predicted and observed states (analysis increments). With the increase in the availability of high-quality observations and simulations, learning nudging from these increments to correct model errors has become an active research area. However, most studies focus on using neural networks, which while powerful, are hard to interpret, are data-hungry, and poorly generalize out-of-distribution. Here, we show the capabilities of Model Error Discovery with Interpretability and Data Assimilation (MEDIDA), a general, data-efficient framework that uses sparsity-promoting equation-discovery techniques to learn model errors from analysis increments. Using two-layer quasi-geostrophic turbulence as the test case, MEDIDA is shown to successfully discover various linear and nonlinear structural/parametric errors when full observations are available. Discovery from spatially sparse observations is found to require highly accurate interpolation schemes. While NNs have shown success as interpolators in recent studies, here, they are found inadequate due to their inability to accurately represent small scales, a phenomenon known as spectral bias. We show that a general remedy, adding a random Fourier feature layer to the NN, resolves this issue enabling MEDIDA to successfully discover model errors from sparse observations. These promising results suggest that with further development, MEDIDA could be scaled up to models of the Earth system and real observations.

Sequential learning paradigms pose challenges for gradient-based deep learning due to difficulties incorporating new data and retaining prior knowledge. While Gaussian processes elegantly tackle these problems, they struggle with scalability and handling rich inputs, such as images. To address these issues, we introduce a technique that converts neural networks from weight space to function space, through a dual parameterization. Our parameterization offers: (i) a way to scale function-space methods to large data sets via sparsification, (ii) retention of prior knowledge when access to past data is limited, and (iii) a mechanism to incorporate new data without retraining. Our experiments demonstrate that we can retain knowledge in continual learning and incorporate new data efficiently. We further show its strengths in uncertainty quantification and guiding exploration in model-based RL. Further information and code is available on the project website.

We introduce a general, flexible, parametric survival modelling framework which encompasses key shapes of hazard function (constant, increasing, decreasing, up-then-down, down-then-up), various common survival distributions (log-logistic, Burr type XII, Weibull, Gompertz), and includes defective distributions (i.e., cure models). This generality is achieved using four basic distributional parameters: two scale-type parameters and two shape parameters. Generalising to covariate dependence, the scale-type regression components correspond to accelerated failure time (AFT) and proportional hazards (PH) models. Therefore, this general formulation unifies the most popular survival models which allows us to consider the practical value of possible modelling choices for survival data. Furthermore, in line with our proposed flexible baseline distribution, we advocate the use of multi-parameter regression in which more than one distributional parameter depends on covariates - rather than the usual convention of having a single covariate-dependent (scale) parameter. While many choices are available, we suggest introducing covariates through just one or other of the two scale parameters, which covers AFT and PH models, in combination with a `power' shape parameter, which allows for more complex non-AFT/non-PH effects, while the other shape parameter remains covariate-independent, and handles automatic selection of the baseline distribution. We explore inferential issues in simulations, both with and without a covariate, with particular focus on evidence concerning the need, or otherwise, to include both AFT and PH parameters. We illustrate the efficacy of our modelling framework by investigating differences between treatment groups using data from a lung cancer study and a melanoma study. Censoring is accommodated throughout.

Diffusion models have significantly advanced the field of generative modeling. However, training a diffusion model is computationally expensive, creating a pressing need to adapt off-the-shelf diffusion models for downstream generation tasks. Current fine-tuning methods focus on parameter-efficient transfer learning but overlook the fundamental transfer characteristics of diffusion models. In this paper, we investigate the transferability of diffusion models and observe a monotonous chain of forgetting trend of transferability along the reverse process. Based on this observation and novel theoretical insights, we present Diff-Tuning, a frustratingly simple transfer approach that leverages the chain of forgetting tendency. Diff-Tuning encourages the fine-tuned model to retain the pre-trained knowledge at the end of the denoising chain close to the generated data while discarding the other noise side. We conduct comprehensive experiments to evaluate Diff-Tuning, including the transfer of pre-trained Diffusion Transformer models to eight downstream generations and the adaptation of Stable Diffusion to five control conditions with ControlNet. Diff-Tuning achieves a 26% improvement over standard fine-tuning and enhances the convergence speed of ControlNet by 24%. Notably, parameter-efficient transfer learning techniques for diffusion models can also benefit from Diff-Tuning.

We establish, in general terms, the conditions to be satisfied by a time-fractional approach formulation of the Poisson-Nernst-Planck model in order to guarantee that the total current across the sample be solenoidal, as required by the Maxwell equation. Only in this case the electric impedance of a cell can be determined as the ratio between the applied difference of potential and the current across the cell. We show that in the case of anomalous diffusion, the model predicts for the electric impedance of the cell a constant phase element behaviour in the low frequency region. In the parametric curve of the reactance versus the resistance, the slope coincides with the order of the fractional time derivative.

Hyperparameter (HP) tuning in deep learning is an expensive process, prohibitively so for neural networks (NNs) with billions of parameters. We show that, in the recently discovered Maximal Update Parametrization (muP), many optimal HPs remain stable even as model size changes. This leads to a new HP tuning paradigm we call muTransfer: parametrize the target model in muP, tune the HP indirectly on a smaller model, and zero-shot transfer them to the full-sized model, i.e., without directly tuning the latter at all. We verify muTransfer on Transformer and ResNet. For example, 1) by transferring pretraining HPs from a model of 13M parameters, we outperform published numbers of BERT-large (350M parameters), with a total tuning cost equivalent to pretraining BERT-large once; 2) by transferring from 40M parameters, we outperform published numbers of the 6.7B GPT-3 model, with tuning cost only 7% of total pretraining cost. A Pytorch implementation of our technique can be found at github.com/microsoft/mup and installable via `pip install mup`.

Increasing the number of parameters in language models is a common strategy to enhance their performance. However, smaller language models remain valuable due to their lower operational costs. Despite their advantages, smaller models frequently underperform compared to their larger counterparts, even when provided with equivalent data and computational resources. Specifically, their performance tends to degrade in the late pretraining phase. This is anecdotally attributed to their reduced representational capacity. Yet, the exact causes of this performance degradation remain unclear. We use the Pythia model suite to analyse the training dynamics that underlie this phenomenon. Across different model sizes, we investigate the convergence of the Attention and MLP activations to their final state and examine how the effective rank of their parameters influences this process. We find that nearly all layers in larger models stabilise early in training - within the first 20% - whereas layers in smaller models exhibit slower and less stable convergence, especially when their parameters have lower effective rank. By linking the convergence of layers' activations to their parameters' effective rank, our analyses can guide future work to address inefficiencies in the learning dynamics of small models.

Stochastic processes have found numerous applications in science, as they are broadly used to model a variety of natural phenomena. Due to their intrinsic randomness and uncertainty, they are however difficult to characterize. Here, we introduce an unsupervised machine learning approach to determine the minimal set of parameters required to effectively describe the dynamics of a stochastic process. Our method builds upon an extended beta-variational autoencoder architecture. By means of simulated datasets corresponding to paradigmatic diffusion models, we showcase its effectiveness in extracting the minimal relevant parameters that accurately describe these dynamics. Furthermore, the method enables the generation of new trajectories that faithfully replicate the expected stochastic behavior. Overall, our approach enables for the autonomous discovery of unknown parameters describing stochastic processes, hence enhancing our comprehension of complex phenomena across various fields.

The prior drift is crucial in Continual Test-Time Adaptation (CTTA) methods that only use unlabeled test data, as it can cause significant error propagation. In this paper, we introduce VCoTTA, a variational Bayesian approach to measure uncertainties in CTTA. At the source stage, we transform a pre-trained deterministic model into a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) via a variational warm-up strategy, injecting uncertainties into the model. During the testing time, we employ a mean-teacher update strategy using variational inference for the student model and exponential moving average for the teacher model. Our novel approach updates the student model by combining priors from both the source and teacher models. The evidence lower bound is formulated as the cross-entropy between the student and teacher models, along with the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence of the prior mixture. Experimental results on three datasets demonstrate the method's effectiveness in mitigating prior drift within the CTTA framework.

Diffusion models may be formulated as a time-indexed sequence of energy-based models, where the score corresponds to the negative gradient of an energy function. As opposed to learning the score directly, an energy parameterization is attractive as the energy itself can be used to control generation via Monte Carlo samplers. Architectural constraints and training instability in energy parameterized models have so far yielded inferior performance compared to directly approximating the score or denoiser. We address these deficiencies by introducing a novel training regime for the energy function through distillation of pre-trained diffusion models, resembling a Helmholtz decomposition of the score vector field. We further showcase the synergies between energy and score by casting the diffusion sampling procedure as a Feynman Kac model where sampling is controlled using potentials from the learnt energy functions. The Feynman Kac model formalism enables composition and low temperature sampling through sequential Monte Carlo.

Split conformal prediction has recently sparked great interest due to its ability to provide formally guaranteed uncertainty sets or intervals for predictions made by black-box neural models, ensuring a predefined probability of containing the actual ground truth. While the original formulation assumes data exchangeability, some extensions handle non-exchangeable data, which is often the case in many real-world scenarios. In parallel, some progress has been made in conformal methods that provide statistical guarantees for a broader range of objectives, such as bounding the best F_1-score or minimizing the false negative rate in expectation. In this paper, we leverage and extend these two lines of work by proposing non-exchangeable conformal risk control, which allows controlling the expected value of any monotone loss function when the data is not exchangeable. Our framework is flexible, makes very few assumptions, and allows weighting the data based on its relevance for a given test example; a careful choice of weights may result on tighter bounds, making our framework useful in the presence of change points, time series, or other forms of distribution drift. Experiments with both synthetic and real world data show the usefulness of our method.

We study a discrete model for generalized exchange-driven growth in which the particle exchanged between two clusters is not limited to be of size one. This set of models include as special cases the usual exchange-driven growth system and the coagulation-fragmentation system with binary fragmentation. Under reasonable general condition on the rate coefficients we establish the existence of admissible solutions, meaning solutions that are obtained as appropriate limit of solutions to a finite-dimensional truncation of the infinite-dimensional ODE. For these solutions we prove that, in the class of models we call isolated both the total number of particles and the total mass are conserved, whereas in those models we can non-isolated only the mass is conserved. Additionally, under more restrictive growth conditions for the rate equations we obtain uniqueness of solutions to the initial value problems.

Continual learning (CL) can help pre-trained vision-language models efficiently adapt to new or under-trained data distributions without re-training. Nevertheless, during the continual training of the Contrastive Language-Image Pre-training (CLIP) model, we observe that the model's zero-shot transfer ability significantly degrades due to catastrophic forgetting. Existing CL methods can mitigate forgetting by replaying previous data. However, since the CLIP dataset is private, replay methods cannot access the pre-training dataset. In addition, replaying data of previously learned downstream tasks can enhance their performance but comes at the cost of sacrificing zero-shot performance. To address this challenge, we propose a novel method ZSCL to prevent zero-shot transfer degradation in the continual learning of vision-language models in both feature and parameter space. In the feature space, a reference dataset is introduced for distillation between the current and initial models. The reference dataset should have semantic diversity but no need to be labeled, seen in pre-training, or matched image-text pairs. In parameter space, we prevent a large parameter shift by averaging weights during the training. We propose a more challenging Multi-domain Task Incremental Learning (MTIL) benchmark to evaluate different methods, where tasks are from various domains instead of class-separated in a single dataset. Our method outperforms other methods in the traditional class-incremental learning setting and the MTIL by 9.7% average score. Our code locates at https://github.com/Thunderbeee/ZSCL.

Empirical scaling laws prescribe how to allocate parameters, data, and compute, while maximal-update parameterization (muP) enables learning-rate transfer across widths by equalizing early-time update magnitudes. However, in modern scale-invariant architectures, training quickly enters an optimizer-governed steady state where normalization layers create backward scale sensitivity and the effective learning rate becomes width dependent, degrading muP transfer. We address this by introducing a weight-decay scaling rule for AdamW that preserves sublayer gain across widths. Empirically, the singular-value spectrum of each matrix parameter scales in norm as eta/lambda with an approximately invariant shape; under width scaling d, we observe that the top singular value scales approximately as eta/lambdacdot d^{0.75}. Combining this observation with the muP learning-rate rule eta_2propto d^{-1} for matrix-like parameters implies an empirical weight-decay scaling rule lambda_2propto d that approximately keeps sublayer gains width invariant. Together with vector-like parameters trained at eta_1=Theta_d(1) and lambda_1=0, this yields zero-shot transfer of both learning rate and weight decay from proxy to target widths, removing per-width sweeps. We validate the rule on LLaMA-style Transformers and in a minimal synthetic setting, and we provide a simple diagnostic, matching top singular values, to check sublayer-gain invariance. Our results extend muP beyond the near-init regime by explicitly controlling steady-state scales set by the optimizer, offering a practical recipe for width-robust hyperparameter transfer under AdamW.

Recent ODE/SDE-based generative models, such as diffusion models, rectified flows, and flow matching, define a generative process as a time reversal of a fixed forward process. Even though these models show impressive performance on large-scale datasets, numerical simulation requires multiple evaluations of a neural network, leading to a slow sampling speed. We attribute the reason to the high curvature of the learned generative trajectories, as it is directly related to the truncation error of a numerical solver. Based on the relationship between the forward process and the curvature, here we present an efficient method of training the forward process to minimize the curvature of generative trajectories without any ODE/SDE simulation. Experiments show that our method achieves a lower curvature than previous models and, therefore, decreased sampling costs while maintaining competitive performance. Code is available at https://github.com/sangyun884/fast-ode.

We develop a framework for non-asymptotic analysis of deterministic samplers used for diffusion generative modeling. Several recent works have analyzed stochastic samplers using tools like Girsanov's theorem and a chain rule variant of the interpolation argument. Unfortunately, these techniques give vacuous bounds when applied to deterministic samplers. We give a new operational interpretation for deterministic sampling by showing that one step along the probability flow ODE can be expressed as two steps: 1) a restoration step that runs gradient ascent on the conditional log-likelihood at some infinitesimally previous time, and 2) a degradation step that runs the forward process using noise pointing back towards the current iterate. This perspective allows us to extend denoising diffusion implicit models to general, non-linear forward processes. We then develop the first polynomial convergence bounds for these samplers under mild conditions on the data distribution.

Offline-to-online reinforcement learning (RL) has emerged as a practical paradigm that leverages offline datasets for pretraining and online interactions for fine-tuning. However, its empirical behavior is highly inconsistent: design choices of online-fine tuning that work well in one setting can fail completely in another. We propose a stability--plasticity principle that can explain this inconsistency: we should preserve the knowledge of pretrained policy or offline dataset during online fine-tuning, whichever is better, while maintaining sufficient plasticity. This perspective identifies three regimes of online fine-tuning, each requiring distinct stability properties. We validate this framework through a large-scale empirical study, finding that the results strongly align with its predictions in 45 of 63 cases. This work provides a principled framework for guiding design choices in offline-to-online RL based on the relative performance of the offline dataset and the pretrained policy.

Recently, diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) have achieved promising results in diverse generative tasks. A typical DPM framework includes a forward process that gradually diffuses the data distribution and a reverse process that recovers the data distribution from time-dependent data scores. In this work, we observe that the stochastic reverse process of data scores is a martingale, from which concentration bounds and the optional stopping theorem for data scores can be derived. Then, we discover a simple way for calibrating an arbitrary pretrained DPM, with which the score matching loss can be reduced and the lower bounds of model likelihood can consequently be increased. We provide general calibration guidelines under various model parametrizations. Our calibration method is performed only once and the resulting models can be used repeatedly for sampling. We conduct experiments on multiple datasets to empirically validate our proposal. Our code is at https://github.com/thudzj/Calibrated-DPMs.

We explore a data-driven approach for learning to optimize neural networks. We construct a dataset of neural network checkpoints and train a generative model on the parameters. In particular, our model is a conditional diffusion transformer that, given an initial input parameter vector and a prompted loss, error, or return, predicts the distribution over parameter updates that achieve the desired metric. At test time, it can optimize neural networks with unseen parameters for downstream tasks in just one update. We find that our approach successfully generates parameters for a wide range of loss prompts. Moreover, it can sample multimodal parameter solutions and has favorable scaling properties. We apply our method to different neural network architectures and tasks in supervised and reinforcement learning.

Deep reinforcement learning (RL) methods generally engage in exploratory behavior through noise injection in the action space. An alternative is to add noise directly to the agent's parameters, which can lead to more consistent exploration and a richer set of behaviors. Methods such as evolutionary strategies use parameter perturbations, but discard all temporal structure in the process and require significantly more samples. Combining parameter noise with traditional RL methods allows to combine the best of both worlds. We demonstrate that both off- and on-policy methods benefit from this approach through experimental comparison of DQN, DDPG, and TRPO on high-dimensional discrete action environments as well as continuous control tasks. Our results show that RL with parameter noise learns more efficiently than traditional RL with action space noise and evolutionary strategies individually.

Practitioners frequently aim to infer an unobserved population trajectory using sample snapshots at multiple time points. For instance, in single-cell sequencing, scientists would like to learn how gene expression evolves over time. But sequencing any cell destroys that cell. So we cannot access any cell's full trajectory, but we can access snapshot samples from many cells. Stochastic differential equations are commonly used to analyze systems with full individual-trajectory access; since here we have only sample snapshots, these methods are inapplicable. The deep learning community has recently explored using Schr\"odinger bridges (SBs) and their extensions to estimate these dynamics. However, these methods either (1) interpolate between just two time points or (2) require a single fixed reference dynamic within the SB, which is often just set to be Brownian motion. But learning piecewise from adjacent time points can fail to capture long-term dependencies. And practitioners are typically able to specify a model class for the reference dynamic but not the exact values of the parameters within it. So we propose a new method that (1) learns the unobserved trajectories from sample snapshots across multiple time points and (2) requires specification only of a class of reference dynamics, not a single fixed one. In particular, we suggest an iterative projection method inspired by Schr\"odinger bridges; we alternate between learning a piecewise SB on the unobserved trajectories and using the learned SB to refine our best guess for the dynamics within the reference class. We demonstrate the advantages of our method via a well-known simulated parametric model from ecology, simulated and real data from systems biology, and real motion-capture data.

In many real-world applications, deep neural networks are retrained from scratch as a dataset grows in size. Given the computational expense for retraining networks, it has been argued that continual learning could make updating networks more efficient. An obstacle to achieving this goal is the stability gap, which refers to an observation that when updating on new data, performance on previously learned data degrades before recovering. Addressing this problem would enable learning new data with fewer network updates, resulting in increased computational efficiency. We study how to mitigate the stability gap. We test a variety of hypotheses to understand why the stability gap occurs. This leads us to discover a method that vastly reduces this gap. In large-scale class incremental learning experiments, we are able to significantly reduce the number of network updates needed for continual learning. Our work has the potential to advance the state-of-the-art in continual learning for real-world applications along with reducing the carbon footprint required to maintain updated neural networks.

The parameter space for any fixed architecture of feedforward ReLU neural networks serves as a proxy during training for the associated class of functions - but how faithful is this representation? It is known that many different parameter settings can determine the same function. Moreover, the degree of this redundancy is inhomogeneous: for some networks, the only symmetries are permutation of neurons in a layer and positive scaling of parameters at a neuron, while other networks admit additional hidden symmetries. In this work, we prove that, for any network architecture where no layer is narrower than the input, there exist parameter settings with no hidden symmetries. We also describe a number of mechanisms through which hidden symmetries can arise, and empirically approximate the functional dimension of different network architectures at initialization. These experiments indicate that the probability that a network has no hidden symmetries decreases towards 0 as depth increases, while increasing towards 1 as width and input dimension increase.

Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (NODEs) often struggle to adapt to new dynamic behaviors caused by parameter changes in the underlying physical system, even when these dynamics are similar to previously observed behaviors. This problem becomes more challenging when the changing parameters are unobserved, meaning their value or influence cannot be directly measured when collecting data. To address this issue, we introduce Neural Context Flow (NCF), a robust and interpretable Meta-Learning framework that includes uncertainty estimation. NCF uses Taylor expansion to enable contextual self-modulation, allowing context vectors to influence dynamics from other domains while also modulating themselves. After establishing theoretical guarantees, we empirically test NCF and compare it to related adaptation methods. Our results show that NCF achieves state-of-the-art Out-of-Distribution performance on 5 out of 6 linear and non-linear benchmark problems. Through extensive experiments, we explore the flexible model architecture of NCF and the encoded representations within the learned context vectors. Our findings highlight the potential implications of NCF for foundational models in the physical sciences, offering a promising approach to improving the adaptability and generalization of NODEs in various scientific applications. Our code is openly available at https://github.com/ddrous/ncflow.

We present ConDiff, a novel dataset for scientific machine learning. ConDiff focuses on the parametric diffusion equation with space dependent coefficients, a fundamental problem in many applications of partial differential equations (PDEs). The main novelty of the proposed dataset is that we consider discontinuous coefficients with high contrast. These coefficient functions are sampled from a selected set of distributions. This class of problems is not only of great academic interest, but is also the basis for describing various environmental and industrial problems. In this way, ConDiff shortens the gap with real-world problems while remaining fully synthetic and easy to use. ConDiff consists of a diverse set of diffusion equations with coefficients covering a wide range of contrast levels and heterogeneity with a measurable complexity metric for clearer comparison between different coefficient functions. We baseline ConDiff on standard deep learning models in the field of scientific machine learning. By providing a large number of problem instances, each with its own coefficient function and right-hand side, we hope to encourage the development of novel physics-based deep learning approaches, such as neural operators, ultimately driving progress towards more accurate and efficient solutions of complex PDE problems.

We consider a biological population whose environment varies periodically in time, exhibiting two very different "seasons" : one is favorable and the other one is unfavorable. For monotone differential models with concave nonlinearities, we address the following question: the system's period being fixed, under what conditions does there exist a critical duration for the unfavorable season? By "critical duration" we mean that above some threshold, the population cannot sustain and extincts, while below this threshold, the system converges to a unique periodic and positive solution. We term this a "sharp seasonal threshold property" (SSTP, for short). Building upon a previous result, we obtain sufficient conditions for SSTP in any dimension and apply our criterion to a two-dimensional model featuring juvenile and adult populations of insects.

FSampler is a training free, sampler agnostic execution layer that accelerates diffusion sampling by reducing the number of function evaluations (NFE). FSampler maintains a short history of denoising signals (epsilon) from recent real model calls and extrapolates the next epsilon using finite difference predictors at second order, third order, or fourth order, falling back to lower order when history is insufficient. On selected steps the predicted epsilon substitutes the model call while keeping each sampler's update rule unchanged. Predicted epsilons are validated for finiteness and magnitude; a learning stabilizer rescales predictions on skipped steps to correct drift, and an optional gradient estimation stabilizer compensates local curvature. Protected windows, periodic anchors, and a cap on consecutive skips bound deviation over the trajectory. Operating at the sampler level, FSampler integrates with Euler/DDIM, DPM++ 2M/2S, LMS/AB2, and RES family exponential multistep methods and drops into standard workflows. FLUX.1 dev, Qwen Image, and Wan 2.2, FSampler reduces time by 8 to 22% and model calls by 15 to 25% at high fidelity (Structural Similarity Index (SSIM) 0.95 to 0.99), without altering sampler formulas. With an aggressive adaptive gate, reductions can reach 45 to 50% fewer model calls at lower fidelity (SSIM 0.73 to 0.74).

Recent work has highlighted the complex influence training hyperparameters, e.g., the number of training epochs, can have on the prunability of machine learning models. Perhaps surprisingly, a systematic approach to predict precisely how adjusting a specific hyperparameter will affect prunability remains elusive. To address this gap, we introduce a phenomenological model grounded in the statistical mechanics of learning. Our approach uses temperature-like and load-like parameters to model the impact of neural network (NN) training hyperparameters on pruning performance. A key empirical result we identify is a sharp transition phenomenon: depending on the value of a load-like parameter in the pruned model, increasing the value of a temperature-like parameter in the pre-pruned model may either enhance or impair subsequent pruning performance. Based on this transition, we build a three-regime model by taxonomizing the global structure of the pruned NN loss landscape. Our model reveals that the dichotomous effect of high temperature is associated with transitions between distinct types of global structures in the post-pruned model. Based on our results, we present three case-studies: 1) determining whether to increase or decrease a hyperparameter for improved pruning; 2) selecting the best model to prune from a family of models; and 3) tuning the hyperparameter of the Sharpness Aware Minimization method for better pruning performance.

Score-based diffusion models learn to reverse a stochastic differential equation that maps data to noise. However, for complex tasks, numerical error can compound and result in highly unnatural samples. Previous work mitigates this drift with thresholding, which projects to the natural data domain (such as pixel space for images) after each diffusion step, but this leads to a mismatch between the training and generative processes. To incorporate data constraints in a principled manner, we present Reflected Diffusion Models, which instead reverse a reflected stochastic differential equation evolving on the support of the data. Our approach learns the perturbed score function through a generalized score matching loss and extends key components of standard diffusion models including diffusion guidance, likelihood-based training, and ODE sampling. We also bridge the theoretical gap with thresholding: such schemes are just discretizations of reflected SDEs. On standard image benchmarks, our method is competitive with or surpasses the state of the art without architectural modifications and, for classifier-free guidance, our approach enables fast exact sampling with ODEs and produces more faithful samples under high guidance weight.

Solving time-dependent parametric partial differential equations (PDEs) is challenging, as models must adapt to variations in parameters such as coefficients, forcing terms, and boundary conditions. Data-driven neural solvers either train on data sampled from the PDE parameters distribution in the hope that the model generalizes to new instances or rely on gradient-based adaptation and meta-learning to implicitly encode the dynamics from observations. This often comes with increased inference complexity. Inspired by the in-context learning capabilities of large language models (LLMs), we introduce Zebra, a novel generative auto-regressive transformer designed to solve parametric PDEs without requiring gradient adaptation at inference. By leveraging in-context information during both pre-training and inference, Zebra dynamically adapts to new tasks by conditioning on input sequences that incorporate context trajectories or preceding states. This approach enables Zebra to flexibly handle arbitrarily sized context inputs and supports uncertainty quantification through the sampling of multiple solution trajectories. We evaluate Zebra across a variety of challenging PDE scenarios, demonstrating its adaptability, robustness, and superior performance compared to existing approaches.

Conventional diffusion models typically relies on a fixed forward process, which implicitly defines complex marginal distributions over latent variables. This can often complicate the reverse process' task in learning generative trajectories, and results in costly inference for diffusion models. To address these limitations, we introduce Neural Flow Diffusion Models (NFDM), a novel framework that enhances diffusion models by supporting a broader range of forward processes beyond the fixed linear Gaussian. We also propose a novel parameterization technique for learning the forward process. Our framework provides an end-to-end, simulation-free optimization objective, effectively minimizing a variational upper bound on the negative log-likelihood. Experimental results demonstrate NFDM's strong performance, evidenced by state-of-the-art likelihood estimation. Furthermore, we investigate NFDM's capacity for learning generative dynamics with specific characteristics, such as deterministic straight lines trajectories. This exploration underscores NFDM's versatility and its potential for a wide range of applications.

In applications of diffusion models, controllable generation is of practical significance, but is also challenging. Current methods for controllable generation primarily focus on modifying the score function of diffusion models, while Mean Reverting (MR) Diffusion directly modifies the structure of the stochastic differential equation (SDE), making the incorporation of image conditions simpler and more natural. However, current training-free fast samplers are not directly applicable to MR Diffusion. And thus MR Diffusion requires hundreds of NFEs (number of function evaluations) to obtain high-quality samples. In this paper, we propose a new algorithm named MRS (MR Sampler) to reduce the sampling NFEs of MR Diffusion. We solve the reverse-time SDE and the probability flow ordinary differential equation (PF-ODE) associated with MR Diffusion, and derive semi-analytical solutions. The solutions consist of an analytical function and an integral parameterized by a neural network. Based on this solution, we can generate high-quality samples in fewer steps. Our approach does not require training and supports all mainstream parameterizations, including noise prediction, data prediction and velocity prediction. Extensive experiments demonstrate that MR Sampler maintains high sampling quality with a speedup of 10 to 20 times across ten different image restoration tasks. Our algorithm accelerates the sampling procedure of MR Diffusion, making it more practical in controllable generation.