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Dec 29

Bootstrap aggregation and confidence measures to improve time series causal discovery

Learning causal graphs from multivariate time series is a ubiquitous challenge in all application domains dealing with time-dependent systems, such as in Earth sciences, biology, or engineering, to name a few. Recent developments for this causal discovery learning task have shown considerable skill, notably the specific time-series adaptations of the popular conditional independence-based learning framework. However, uncertainty estimation is challenging for conditional independence-based methods. Here, we introduce a novel bootstrap approach designed for time series causal discovery that preserves the temporal dependencies and lag structure. It can be combined with a range of time series causal discovery methods and provides a measure of confidence for the links of the time series graphs. Furthermore, next to confidence estimation, an aggregation, also called bagging, of the bootstrapped graphs by majority voting results in bagged causal discovery methods. In this work, we combine this approach with the state-of-the-art conditional-independence-based algorithm PCMCI+. With extensive numerical experiments we empirically demonstrate that, in addition to providing confidence measures for links, Bagged-PCMCI+ improves in precision and recall as compared to its base algorithm PCMCI+, at the cost of higher computational demands. These statistical performance improvements are especially pronounced in the more challenging settings (short time sample size, large number of variables, high autocorrelation). Our bootstrap approach can also be combined with other time series causal discovery algorithms and can be of considerable use in many real-world applications.

  • 4 authors
·
Jun 15, 2023

Extending Bootstrap AMG for Clustering of Attributed Graphs

In this paper we propose a new approach to detect clusters in undirected graphs with attributed vertices. We incorporate structural and attribute similarities between the vertices in an augmented graph by creating additional vertices and edges as proposed in [1, 2]. The augmented graph is then embedded in a Euclidean space associated to its Laplacian and we cluster vertices via a modified K-means algorithm, using a new vector-valued distance in the embedding space. Main novelty of our method, which can be classified as an early fusion method, i.e., a method in which additional information on vertices are fused to the structure information before applying clustering, is the interpretation of attributes as new realizations of graph vertices, which can be dealt with as coordinate vectors in a related Euclidean space. This allows us to extend a scalable generalized spectral clustering procedure which substitutes graph Laplacian eigenvectors with some vectors, named algebraically smooth vectors, obtained by a linear-time complexity Algebraic MultiGrid (AMG) method. We discuss the performance of our proposed clustering method by comparison with recent literature approaches and public available results. Extensive experiments on different types of synthetic datasets and real-world attributed graphs show that our new algorithm, embedding attributes information in the clustering, outperforms structure-only-based methods, when the attributed network has an ambiguous structure. Furthermore, our new method largely outperforms the method which originally proposed the graph augmentation, showing that our embedding strategy and vector-valued distance are very effective in taking advantages from the augmented-graph representation.

  • 3 authors
·
Sep 20, 2021

Model Evaluation, Model Selection, and Algorithm Selection in Machine Learning

The correct use of model evaluation, model selection, and algorithm selection techniques is vital in academic machine learning research as well as in many industrial settings. This article reviews different techniques that can be used for each of these three subtasks and discusses the main advantages and disadvantages of each technique with references to theoretical and empirical studies. Further, recommendations are given to encourage best yet feasible practices in research and applications of machine learning. Common methods such as the holdout method for model evaluation and selection are covered, which are not recommended when working with small datasets. Different flavors of the bootstrap technique are introduced for estimating the uncertainty of performance estimates, as an alternative to confidence intervals via normal approximation if bootstrapping is computationally feasible. Common cross-validation techniques such as leave-one-out cross-validation and k-fold cross-validation are reviewed, the bias-variance trade-off for choosing k is discussed, and practical tips for the optimal choice of k are given based on empirical evidence. Different statistical tests for algorithm comparisons are presented, and strategies for dealing with multiple comparisons such as omnibus tests and multiple-comparison corrections are discussed. Finally, alternative methods for algorithm selection, such as the combined F-test 5x2 cross-validation and nested cross-validation, are recommended for comparing machine learning algorithms when datasets are small.

  • 1 authors
·
Nov 13, 2018

Reasoning to Learn from Latent Thoughts

Compute scaling for language model (LM) pretraining has outpaced the growth of human-written texts, leading to concerns that data will become the bottleneck to LM scaling. To continue scaling pretraining in this data-constrained regime, we propose that explicitly modeling and inferring the latent thoughts that underlie the text generation process can significantly improve pretraining data efficiency. Intuitively, our approach views web text as the compressed final outcome of a verbose human thought process and that the latent thoughts contain important contextual knowledge and reasoning steps that are critical to data-efficient learning. We empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach through data-constrained continued pretraining for math. We first show that synthetic data approaches to inferring latent thoughts significantly improve data efficiency, outperforming training on the same amount of raw data (5.7\% rightarrow 25.4\% on MATH). Furthermore, we demonstrate latent thought inference without a strong teacher, where an LM bootstraps its own performance by using an EM algorithm to iteratively improve the capability of the trained LM and the quality of thought-augmented pretraining data. We show that a 1B LM can bootstrap its performance across at least three iterations and significantly outperform baselines trained on raw data, with increasing gains from additional inference compute when performing the E-step. The gains from inference scaling and EM iterations suggest new opportunities for scaling data-constrained pretraining.

  • 4 authors
·
Mar 24 1

Test-Time Matching: Unlocking Compositional Reasoning in Multimodal Models

Frontier AI models have achieved remarkable progress, yet recent studies suggest they struggle with compositional reasoning, often performing at or below random chance on established benchmarks. We revisit this problem and show that widely used evaluation metrics systematically underestimate model capability. To address this, we introduce a group matching score that better exploits group structure and reveals substantial hidden capability in both contrastive vision-language models (VLMs) and multimodal large language models (MLLMs). Moreover, simply overfitting to the induced group matchings at test time transfers this hidden capability into higher scores under standard evaluation metrics, closing much of the reported gap. This adjustment enables SigLIP-B16 to surpass all previous results and GPT-4.1 to yield the first result surpassing estimated human performance on Winoground. Building on this insight, we propose Test-Time Matching (TTM), an iterative, self-improving algorithm that further bootstraps model performance without any external supervision. TTM delivers additional, non-trivial improvements: for example, TTM enables SigLIP-B16 to surpass GPT-4.1 on MMVP-VLM, establishing a new state of the art. Importantly, TTM remains broadly effective even on benchmarks without metric-induced effects or group structures, achieving relative gains up to 85.7% on challenging datasets such as WhatsUp. Across 16 dataset variants spanning diverse setups, our experiments demonstrate that TTM consistently improves model performance and advances the frontier of compositional reasoning.

  • 3 authors
·
Oct 8