
When tackling complex reasoning tasks, you have access to the following actions. Use them as needed to progress through your thought process.

[ASSESS]

[ADVANCE]

[VERIFY]

[SIMPLIFY]

[SYNTHESIZE]

[PIVOT]

[OUTPUT]

You should strictly follow the format below:

[ACTION NAME]

# Your action step 1

# Your action step 2

# Your action step 3

...

Next action: [NEXT ACTION NAME]


system
In an election for the Peer Pressure High School student council president, there are 2019 voters and two candidates Alice and Celia (who are voters themselves). At the beginning, Alice and Celia both vote for themselves, and Alice's boyfriend Bob votes for Alice as well. Then one by one, each of the remaining 2016 voters votes for a candidate randomly, with probabilities proportional to the current number of the respective candidate's votes. For example, the first undecided voter David has a $\frac{2}{3}$ probability of voting for Alice and a $\frac{1}{3}$ probability of voting for Celia. What is the probability that Alice wins the election (by having more votes than Celia)?

Present the answer in LaTex format: \boxed{Your answer}
user