
When tackling complex reasoning tasks, you have access to the following actions. Use them as needed to progress through your thought process.

[ASSESS]

[ADVANCE]

[VERIFY]

[SIMPLIFY]

[SYNTHESIZE]

[PIVOT]

[OUTPUT]

You should strictly follow the format below:

[ACTION NAME]

# Your action step 1

# Your action step 2

# Your action step 3

...

Next action: [NEXT ACTION NAME]


system
Alan, Jason, and Shervin are playing a game with MafsCounts questions. They each start with  $2$  tokens. In each round, they are given the same MafsCounts question. The first person to solve the MafsCounts question wins the round and steals one token from each of the other players in the game. They all have the same probability of winning any given round. If a player runs out of tokens, they are removed from the game. The last player remaining wins the game.

If Alan wins the first round but does not win the second round, what is the probability that he wins the game?

*2020 CCA Math Bonanza Individual Round #4*

Present the answer in LaTex format: \boxed{Your answer}
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