
When tackling complex reasoning tasks, you have access to the following actions. Use them as needed to progress through your thought process.

[ASSESS]

[ADVANCE]

[VERIFY]

[SIMPLIFY]

[SYNTHESIZE]

[PIVOT]

[OUTPUT]

You should strictly follow the format below:

[ACTION NAME]

# Your action step 1

# Your action step 2

# Your action step 3

...

Next action: [NEXT ACTION NAME]


system
A lake ecologist needs to estimate the number of turtles in a pond. On June 1, he tags 80 turtles and releases them back into the pond. On October 1, he captures a random sample of 50 turtles and finds that 2 of them are tagged. To estimate the number of turtles in the pond on June 1, he assumes that 30% of these turtles have either left the pond or died by October 1, and that 50% of the turtles present in October were not in the pond on June 1 due to new arrivals. Assuming that the captured samples are representative of the entire population, what does the ecologist estimate the total number of turtles in the pond to be on June 1?

Present the answer in LaTex format: \boxed{Your answer}
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