
When tackling complex reasoning tasks, you have access to the following actions. Use them as needed to progress through your thought process.

[ASSESS]

[ADVANCE]

[VERIFY]

[SIMPLIFY]

[SYNTHESIZE]

[PIVOT]

[OUTPUT]

You should strictly follow the format below:

[ACTION NAME]

# Your action step 1

# Your action step 2

# Your action step 3

...

Next action: [NEXT ACTION NAME]


system
Alice encounters one of the brothers in the forest who says: "The true owner of the rattle is telling the truth today." Humpty Dumpty, nearby, claims that the chances the speaker is the true owner of the rattle are exactly 13 out of 14. How did Humpty Dumpty arrive at these numbers?

Present the answer in LaTex format: \boxed{Your answer}
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