Shining Path Document Raises New Doubts over Call for Peace
SUMMARY A lengthy statement attributed to the imprisoned Shining Path leadership, published recently in a leading opposition newspaper, provides what appears to be a strategic rationale for the peace proposal made by the insurgents last fall.  While the newspaper has accepted the document as an authentic call for peace by the Shining Path, the paper has also stressed that the peace called for in the statement is nothing more than a temporary tactical retreat by the Shining Path leaders and is not, as President Alberto Fujimori has contended, an implicit admission of defeat. END SUMMARY Although La Republica, a prominent anti-Fujimori daily, provided little information on the origins of the "important and unusual" document that it published in a special 25 January supplement, it assured its readers that the lengthy ideological tract explaining the Shining Path's "struggle for a peace agreement" was a genuine Shining Path statement.  The paper claimed that the "anonymous sources" who supplied the "secret" document provided "full authentication" and that "experts" consulted by the paper also "agreed" that the document was the handiwork of imprisoned Shining Path leader Abimael Guzman (La Republica, 26 January).(See Note 1) (Note 1) La Republica did not assert that the document was actually signed by Guzman.  However, the paper did claim that the document was "approved" by imprisoned Shining Path Central Committee members Elena Iparraguirre Revoredo, Osman Morote Barrionuevo, Marta Huatay Ruiz, Maria Pantoja Sanchez and Rosa Angelica Salas de la Cruz (25 January). While the anti-Fujimori daily may have, at least in part, published the document to discredit President Fujimori, it contended that it was motivated by a desire to provide Peruvians with information on the peace proposal that had not been made available by the government.  The paper declared that it was "clearly" its "duty" to publish the document "given the mantle of silence that the government has cast" over the peace negotiations (26 January). La Republica's publication of the Shining Path strategy statement follows by three months the October 1993 release by the Fujimori government of letters from Guzman calling for peace talks with the government (Radio Programs del Peru, 1 October 1993; Radio and TV, 4 October 1993; Global de Television, 10 October 1993; Panamericana Television, 30 October 1993).  The Shining Path leadership's sudden willingness to pursue peace talks with the government, just as the 31 October national referendum vote was approaching, raised questions in the media about whether the letters really represented authoritative Shining Path policy [see box].(See Note 2) (Note 2) Among other objectives, the narrowly successful referendum was designed to allow the president to serve a second successive term. Tactical Retreat for Guzman Implicitly rejecting Fujimori's claim that the Shining Path's call for a negotiated peace represented an admission of political defeat by the insurgents, La Republica concluded that the movement's leadership saw its call for peace as nothing more than a "temporary ceasefire" (25 January).(See Note 3)  According to the daily's 26 January editorial, the Shining Path tract "makes it clear" that in the eyes of Abimael Guzman a "peace agreement" is simply an "armed truce" until after the year 2OOO, at which time the Shining Path "would resume its bloodbath."  La Republica offered a possible explanation for the insurgents' tactical retreat in a 3O January interview with a "military and subversion analyst," who suggested-that a temporary withdrawal may offer Guzman an opportunity to preserve his authority as political leader despite the obvious limitations of beings imprisoned.  Thee analyst concluded, therefore, that the insurgents' peace strategy represents "an ideological reaffirmation of Guzman's leadership" and "recognition that circumstances have changed." (Note 3) For example, in his presentation of the video recording of Guzman's first call for peace talks, Fujimori claimed that the Shining Path "political" leadership "has tacitly admitted that the Peruvian state has totally recovered the initiative in confronting the Shining Path" (Lima Radio and TV, 4 October 1993). Outlook La Republica's assessment of the Shining Path peace strategy document may quiet doubts about whether earlier letters calling for peace talks actually represented the views of top leaders. At the same time, however, by concluding that the published strategy statement is merely the Shining Path's declaration of temporary retreat, the daily has raised new questions about the credibility of Fujimori's claim that the call for peace represents a victory for the government.  While such doubts are unlikely to seriously affect Fujimori's prospects for reelection next year, they may have further tarnished the image of the Peruvian president, already damaged by his narrow victory in the constitutional referendum last October. BOX Media Doubts over Earlier Shining Path Peace Letters -- Following the first Guzman letter calling for peace talks, announced by Fujimori at thee United Nations last October (Radio Programas del Peru, 1 October 1993), the conservative daily El Comercio reported that one seasoned political observer had warned" that Guzman's "reported" desire "to reach a peace agreement" does not mean there is reason "to claim a victory in the ongoing struggle against terrorism" since, according to the observer, the imprisoned insurgent leader may no longer control the Shining Path (2 October 1993). -- Following the second Guzman letter, which supplemented the call for peace talks with what seemed to be praise for Fujimori's economic and political program (Lima Global de Television, 1O October 1993), a commentator for the anti-Fujimori weekly Caretas wrote that the government was using a "broken" Guzman "in the campaign for the 'yes' vote" for the upcoming referendum, adding that "it is no coincidence that the letters . . . have come out during the 3O days prior" to the 31 October vote (14 October 1993). -- Responding similarly to the second Guzman letter, an editorial in La Republica wondered whether "government representatives," working to promote the "yes" vote on the referendum, had not "fallen into a trap" by thinking that Shining Path militants would take seriously such an "unctuous" call for peace talks as appeared in the letter (14 October 1993). -- Also in response to the second letter, Caretas on 14 October claimed that Fujimori was "using" Guzman "in the campaign" to win the 31 October referendum, noting that "with Guzman's letters" calling for peace talks, Fujimori's "promise" to wipe out the Shining Path by 1995 "may gain credibility." END BOX (AUTHOR:  ROLLINS.  QUESTIONS AND/OR COMMENTS, PLEASE CALL CHIEF ANALYST, EUROPE/LATIN AMERICA GROUP, (7O3) 733-612O.) ELAG/GILISON  cka 17/0107z  mar
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