FLORIDA WAITING FOR A 'BIG ONE' TO COME FROM SEA
Newspaper headlines have documented Miami's subsequent hurricanes. The city was "Lashed" in '47, "Slammed" in '49 and "Pounded" in '50. The last to hit Miami was Cleo, a small one, in 1964, and the intervening period of calm defies all odds.;    Many folks here worry about the "Big One" just as Californians worry about the Big Quake. What would one of those legendary storms of the past with 200 mph winds pushing huge tidal surges do to this low-lying metropolis on the Atlantic? No one is sure.;    Hurricane season officially extends from June 1 through Nov. 30, and scientists at the National Hurricane Center, tucked away on the sixth floor of a nondescript office building in this Miami suburb, are perking up after another winter lull.; From now until the end of the season, the six hurricane specialists will monitor weather computers 24 hours a day. In this part of the world, technology has made obsolete such disasters as the unnamed hurricane that surprised Galveston, Texas, in 1900, killing 6,000 people.;    The hurricane specialists use the nation's only working geostationary weather satellite to follow developing storms. When a disturbance becomes threatening, a specially equipped plane is sent into the storm's heart to measure barometric pressure, wind speed and temperature.;    One of the specialists, Lixion Avila, has begun counting tropical waves that form off the coast of Africa every few days during hurricane season. About 60 of these waves of air, not water, form every year. About 20 of them intensify into stronger disturbances, ranging from tropical depressions, with wind speeds to 38 mph; to tropical storms, with winds from 39 to 73 mph; to hurricanes, with winds exceeding 74 mph.;    Last year, 16 tropical depressions developed in the Atlantic. Fourteen became tropical storms, seven of which became hurricanes, fewer than usual.; People who venture into such dubious endeavors as long-term hurricane forecasting said this could be another light year. But, they said, a relatively quiet year does not guarantee a thing.;    One such year was 1935 -- only six hurricanes formed, but one was the strongest to hit the continent. More than 800 workers, brought down to build the Overseas Highway through the Florida Keys, were killed when 200 mph winds knocked their evacuation train off the tracks.;    NO MATTER what long-range forecasters say, scientists at the Hurricane Center know that the laws of probability are closing in on Miami. They are a conservative bunch, not given to Sunday-supplement scare stories. Miami has grown immensely since the last major storm and is greatly overdue, they said.;    "Historically, south Florida has had more hurricanes than any other site," said Jerry Jarrell, a hurricane specialist eyeing Miami's 27-year hiatus nervously. "We would expect a major hurricane to hit within 75 miles of Miami every eight years.";    At the center, scientists built a computer model to calculate what would happen if the 1926 hurricane were to hit Miami today. That storm was almost exactly the strength of Hurricane Hugo, which hit in South Carolina with 135 mph winds in September 1989. The scientists took data from Hugo and applied it to the path taken by the 1926 hurricane into Miami.;    "It would be a totally different story here," said Max Mayfield, who collected photos from the 1926 storm to illustrate the model. "How many high-rises did they have on those barrier islands up in South Carolina? None. I think all these folks in their Miami Beach condos are going to be in for a rude awakening.";    A worst-case storm, with winds topping 150 mph, would put 5 feet of water in Joe's Stone Crabs restaurant, a Miami Beach landmark, and 9 feet of water on Biscayne Boulevard in downtown Miami. Surging water could reach levels of 13 1/2 feet in low-lying areas south of Miami.;    DESPITE MODERN technology, the specialists cannot forecast precisely where a hurricane will hit. Hurricanes change direction and intensify in a matter of hours and, in 24 hours, the specialists said, they could miscalculate one's track by 100 miles. This, and the number of years since the last major storm hit, has spawned a certain complacency among residents that the specialists find disturbing.;    Mayfield went to Miami Beach recently to discuss his model with officials there, and what he heard worried him.;    "The fire department did a survey, and 90 percent of the people they talked to said they wouldn't evacuate for a hurricane," Mayfield said. "That makes my hair stand straight up."
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