Increase In Atlantic Hurricanes Predicted
A hurricane expert predicts a turbulent summer in the Atlantic Ocean with more and fiercer storms swirling the seas, but says it's impossible to know if any of the storms will threaten populated areas. William Gray, a professor of atmospheric science at Colorado State University, said Friday he expects about six Atlantic hurricanes this year, the average for the last 40 years, but above average for the decade. The Atlantic has formed relatively few hurricanes in five of the last six hurricane seasons. Those years brought just two to five hurricanes each, except for the seven hurricanes spotted in 1985. The hurricane season officially begins June 1, and its most active period usually begins Aug. 1. Gray, who has used wind and air pressure patterns to make annual hurricane forecasts each year since 1984, will issue his first formal 1988 forecast in late May. He issued an early ``outlook'' Friday for the 10th annual National Hurricane Conference. ``It is also anticipated that the average hurricane which does form in 1988 will likely be more intense than have the average hurricanes of the last six years, except for the 1985 season,'' Gray said in a paper presented to the conference. But Gray said his models of air pressure, winds around the equator and winds for ``El Nino'' periods, when eastern Pacific waters are warmer than usual, do not allow for predictions of when or where a hurricane might form. Gray based his early outlook on the presence of light easterly winds at the equator and the approaching end of ``El Nino'' period. Gray predicted four hurricanes last season, and three actually occurred. His prediction of four in 1986 was on the money, and he originally predicted eight hurricanes before adjusting that figure to seven, the eventual correct number, in 1985. In 1984, when there were five hurricanes, Gray had predicted seven. Drought in West Africa is responsible for a drop in Atlantic hurricanes in the 1970s and 1980s, Gray said. He said the drought has robbed storm systems of moisture needed to start their escalation into hurricanes. That pattern eventually will change, he said, ``but it is impossible to say when this shift will occur.'' Forecasters and emergency management officials at the conference stressed that coastal populations have increased rapidly during the lull in hurricanes; a surge in storms, up to the levels of the 1950s and 1960s, could bring unprecedented damage, they said.
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