Instruct: Given a scientific claim, retrieve passages that support or refute the claim.
Query: Rising temperatures caused by global warming lowers the risk of dengue fever transmission.
BACKGROUND Transmission of dengue viruses (DENV), the leading cause of arboviral disease worldwide, is known to vary through time and space, likely owing to a combination of factors related to the human host, virus, mosquito vector, and environment. An improved understanding of variation in transmission patterns is fundamental to conducting surveillance and implementing disease prevention strategies. To test the hypothesis that DENV transmission is spatially and temporally focal, we compared geographic and temporal characteristics within Thai villages where DENV are and are not being actively transmitted. METHODS AND FINDINGS Cluster investigations were conducted within 100 m of homes where febrile index children with (positive clusters) and without (negative clusters) acute dengue lived during two seasons of peak DENV transmission. Data on human infection and mosquito infection/density were examined to precisely (1) define the spatial and temporal dimensions of DENV transmission, (2) correlate these factors with variation in DENV transmission, and (3) determine the burden of inapparent and symptomatic infections. Among 556 village children enrolled as neighbors of 12 dengue-positive and 22 dengue-negative index cases, all 27 DENV infections (4.9% of enrollees) occurred in positive clusters (p < 0.01; attributable risk [AR] = 10.4 per 100; 95% confidence interval 1-19.8 per 100]. In positive clusters, 12.4% of enrollees became infected in a 15-d period and DENV infections were aggregated centrally near homes of index cases. As only 1 of 217 pairs of serologic specimens tested in positive clusters revealed a recent DENV infection that occurred prior to cluster initiation, we attribute the observed DENV transmission subsequent to cluster investigation to recent DENV transmission activity. Of the 1,022 female adult Ae. aegypti collected, all eight (0.8%) dengue-infected mosquitoes came from houses in positive clusters; none from control clusters or schools. Distinguishing features between positive and negative clusters were greater availability of piped water in negative clusters (p < 0.01) and greater number of Ae. aegypti pupae per person in positive clusters (p = 0.04). During primarily DENV-4 transmission seasons, the ratio of inapparent to symptomatic infections was nearly 1:1 among child enrollees. Study limitations included inability to sample all children and mosquitoes within each cluster and our reliance on serologic rather than virologic evidence of interval infections in enrollees given restrictions on the frequency of blood collections in children. CONCLUSIONS Our data reveal the remarkably focal nature of DENV transmission within a hyperendemic rural area of Thailand. These data suggest that active school-based dengue case detection prompting local spraying could contain recent virus introductions and reduce the longitudinal risk of virus spread within rural areas. Our results should prompt future cluster studies to explore how host immune and behavioral aspects may impact DENV transmission and prevention strategies. Cluster methodology could serve as a useful research tool for investigation of other temporally and spatially clustered infectious diseases.
Many viruses go through a maturation step in the final stages of assembly before being transmitted to another host. The maturation process of flaviviruses is directed by the proteolytic cleavage of the precursor membrane protein (prM), turning inert virus into infectious particles. We have determined the 2.2 angstrom resolution crystal structure of a recombinant protein in which the dengue virus prM is linked to the envelope glycoprotein E. The structure represents the prM-E heterodimer and fits well into the cryo-electron microscopy density of immature virus at neutral pH. The pr peptide beta-barrel structure covers the fusion loop in E, preventing fusion with host cell membranes. The structure provides a basis for identifying the stages of its pH-directed conformational metamorphosis during maturation, ending with release of pr when budding from the host.
Mosquitoes are vectors of a number of important human and animal diseases. The development of novel vector control strategies requires a thorough understanding of mosquito biology. To facilitate this, we used RNA-seq to identify novel genes and provide the first high-resolution view of the transcriptome throughout development and in response to blood feeding in a mosquito vector of human disease, Aedes aegypti, the primary vector for Dengue and yellow fever. We characterized mRNA expression at 34 distinct time points throughout Aedes development, including adult somatic and germline tissues, by using polyA+ RNA-seq. We identify a total of 14,238 novel new transcribed regions corresponding to 12,597 new loci, as well as many novel transcript isoforms of previously annotated genes. Altogether these results increase the annotated fraction of the transcribed genome into long polyA+ RNAs by more than twofold. We also identified a number of patterns of shared gene expression, as well as genes and/or exons expressed sex-specifically or sex-differentially. Expression profiles of small RNAs in ovaries, early embryos, testes, and adult male and female somatic tissues also were determined, resulting in the identification of 38 new Aedes-specific miRNAs, and ~291,000 small RNA new transcribed regions, many of which are likely to be endogenous small-interfering RNAs and Piwi-interacting RNAs. Genes of potential interest for transgene-based vector control strategies also are highlighted. Our data have been incorporated into a user-friendly genome browser located at www. Aedes.caltech.edu, with relevant links to Vectorbase (www.vectorbase.org).
West Nile virus (WNV) is a major cause of mosquito-borne illness in the United States. Human disease ranges from mild febrile illness to severe fatal neurologic infection. Adults aged >60 years are more susceptible to neuroinvasive disease accompanied by a high mortality rate or long-lasting neurologic sequelae. A chimeric live attenuated West Nile virus vaccine, rWN/DEN4&Dgr;30, was shown to be safe and immunogenic in healthy adults aged 18–50 years. This study evaluated rWN/DEN4&Dgr;30 in flavivirus-naive adults aged 50–65 years and found it to be safe and immunogenic. Outbreaks of WNV infection tend to be unpredictable, and a safe and effective vaccine will be an important public health tool.
The fly Musca sorbens Wiedemann (Diptera: Muscidae) apparently transmits Chlamydia trachomatis, causing human trachoma. The literature indicates that M. sorbens breeds predominantly in isolated human faeces on the soil surface, but not in covered pit latrines. We sought to identify breeding media of M. sorbens in a rural Gambian village endemic for trachoma. Test breeding media were presented for oviposition on soil-filled buckets and monitored for adult emergence. Musca sorbens emerged from human (6/9 trials), calf (3/9), cow (3/9), dog (2/9) and goat (1/9) faeces, but not from horse faeces, composting kitchen scraps or a soil control (0/9 of each). After adjusting for mass of medium, the greatest number of flies emerged from human faeces (1426 flies/kg). Median time for emergence was 9 (inter quartile range = 8-9.75) days post-oviposition. Of all flies emerging from faeces 81% were M. sorbens. Male and female flies emerging from human faeces were significantly larger than those from other media, suggesting that they would be more fecund and live longer than smaller flies from other sources. Female flies caught from children's eyes were of a similar size to those from human faeces, but significantly larger than those from other media. We consider that human faeces are the best larval medium for M. sorbens, although some breeding also occurs in animal faeces. Removal of human faeces from the environment, through the provision of basic sanitation, is likely to greatly reduce fly density, eye contact and hence trachoma transmission, but if faeces of other animals are present M. sorbens will persist.
BACKGROUND Although studies have provided estimates of premature deaths attributable to either heat or cold in selected countries, none has so far offered a systematic assessment across the whole temperature range in populations exposed to different climates. We aimed to quantify the total mortality burden attributable to non-optimum ambient temperature, and the relative contributions from heat and cold and from moderate and extreme temperatures. METHODS We collected data for 384 locations in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, Thailand, UK, and USA. We fitted a standard time-series Poisson model for each location, controlling for trends and day of the week. We estimated temperature-mortality associations with a distributed lag non-linear model with 21 days of lag, and then pooled them in a multivariate metaregression that included country indicators and temperature average and range. We calculated attributable deaths for heat and cold, defined as temperatures above and below the optimum temperature, which corresponded to the point of minimum mortality, and for moderate and extreme temperatures, defined using cutoffs at the 2·5th and 97·5th temperature percentiles. FINDINGS We analysed 74,225,200 deaths in various periods between 1985 and 2012. In total, 7·71% (95% empirical CI 7·43-7·91) of mortality was attributable to non-optimum temperature in the selected countries within the study period, with substantial differences between countries, ranging from 3·37% (3·06 to 3·63) in Thailand to 11·00% (9·29 to 12·47) in China. The temperature percentile of minimum mortality varied from roughly the 60th percentile in tropical areas to about the 80-90th percentile in temperate regions. More temperature-attributable deaths were caused by cold (7·29%, 7·02-7·49) than by heat (0·42%, 0·39-0·44). Extreme cold and hot temperatures were responsible for 0·86% (0·84-0·87) of total mortality. INTERPRETATION Most of the temperature-related mortality burden was attributable to the contribution of cold. The effect of days of extreme temperature was substantially less than that attributable to milder but non-optimum weather. This evidence has important implications for the planning of public-health interventions to minimise the health consequences of adverse temperatures, and for predictions of future effect in climate-change scenarios. FUNDING UK Medical Research Council.
BACKGROUND The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. METHODS We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors-the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). FINDINGS Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6-58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8-42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. INTERPRETATION Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Understanding local variability in malaria transmission risk is critically important when designing intervention or vaccine trials. Using a combination of field data, satellite image analysis, and GIS modeling, we developed a high-resolution map of malaria entomological inoculation rates (EIR) in The Gambia, West Africa. The analyses are based on the variation in exposure to malaria parasites experienced in 48 villages in 1996 and 21 villages in 1997. The entomological inoculation rate (EIR) varied from 0 to 166 infective bites per person per rainy season. Detailed field surveys identified the major Anopheles gambiae s.l. breeding habitats. These habitats were mapped by classification of a LANDSAT TM satellite image with an overall accuracy of 85%. Village EIRs decreased as a power function based on the breeding areas size and proximity. We use this relationship and the breeding habitats to map the variation in EIR over the entire 2500-km(2) study area.
Fever is commonly used to diagnose disease and is consistently associated with increased mortality in critically ill patients. However, the molecular controls of elevated body temperature are poorly understood. We discovered that the expression of RNA-binding motif protein 3 (RBM3), known to respond to cold stress and to modulate microRNA (miRNA) expression, was reduced in 30 patients with fever, and in THP-1-derived macrophages maintained at a fever-like temperature (40 °C). Notably, RBM3 expression is reduced during fever whether or not infection is demonstrable. Reduced RBM3 expression resulted in increased expression of RBM3-targeted temperature-sensitive miRNAs, we termed thermomiRs. ThermomiRs such as miR-142-5p and miR-143 in turn target endogenous pyrogens including IL-6, IL6ST, TLR2, PGE2 and TNF to complete a negative feedback mechanism, which may be crucial to prevent pathological hyperthermia. Using normal PBMCs that were exogenously exposed to fever-like temperature (40 °C), we further demonstrate the trend by which decreased levels of RBM3 were associated with increased levels of miR-142-5p and miR-143 and vice versa over a 24 h time course. Collectively, our results indicate the existence of a negative feedback loop that regulates fever via reduced RBM3 levels and increased expression of miR-142-5p and miR-143.
Despite its key role in determining the stability and intensity of malaria transmission, the infectiousness of human populations to mosquitoes has rarely been estimated. Field-based analyses of malaria transmission have frequently relied on the prevalence of asexual parasites or gametocytes as proxies for infectiousness. We now summarize empirical data on human infectiousness from Africa and Papua New Guinea. Over a wide range of transmission intensities there is little relationship between the infectiousness of human populations to vector mosquitoes and mosquito-to-human transmission intensity. We compare these data with the predictions of a stochastic simulation model of Plasmodium falciparum epidemiology. This model predicted little variation in the infectiousness of the human population for entomologic inoculation rates (EIRs) greater than approximately 10 infectious bites per year, demonstrating that the lack of relationship between the EIR and the infectious reservoir can be explained without invoking any effects of acquired transmission-blocking immunity. The near absence of field data from areas with an EIR < 10 per year precluded validation of the model predictions for low EIR values. These results suggest that interventions reducing mosquito-to-human transmission will have little or no effect on human infectiousness at the levels of transmission found in most rural areas of sub-Saharan Africa. Unless very large reductions in transmission can be achieved, measures to prevent mosquito-to-human transmission need to be complemented with interventions that reduce the density or infectiousness of blood stage parasites.
BACKGROUND Over the past decade malaria intervention coverage has been scaled up across Africa. However, it remains unclear what overall reduction in transmission is achievable using currently available tools. METHODS AND FINDINGS We developed an individual-based simulation model for Plasmodium falciparum transmission in an African context incorporating the three major vector species (Anopheles gambiae s.s., An. arabiensis, and An. funestus) with parameters obtained by fitting to parasite prevalence data from 34 transmission settings across Africa. We incorporated the effect of the switch to artemisinin-combination therapy (ACT) and increasing coverage of long-lasting insecticide treated nets (LLINs) from the year 2000 onwards. We then explored the impact on transmission of continued roll-out of LLINs, additional rounds of indoor residual spraying (IRS), mass screening and treatment (MSAT), and a future RTS,S/AS01 vaccine in six representative settings with varying transmission intensity (as summarized by the annual entomological inoculation rate, EIR: 1 setting with low, 3 with moderate, and 2 with high EIRs), vector-species combinations, and patterns of seasonality. In all settings we considered a realistic target of 80% coverage of interventions. In the low-transmission setting (EIR approximately 3 ibppy [infectious bites per person per year]), LLINs have the potential to reduce malaria transmission to low levels (<1% parasite prevalence in all age-groups) provided usage levels are high and sustained. In two of the moderate-transmission settings (EIR approximately 43 and 81 ibppy), additional rounds of IRS with DDT coupled with MSAT could drive parasite prevalence below a 1% threshold. However, in the third (EIR = 46) with An. arabiensis prevailing, these interventions are insufficient to reach this threshold. In both high-transmission settings (EIR approximately 586 and 675 ibppy), either unrealistically high coverage levels (>90%) or novel tools and/or substantial social improvements will be required, although considerable reductions in prevalence can be achieved with existing tools and realistic coverage levels. CONCLUSIONS Interventions using current tools can result in major reductions in P. falciparum malaria transmission and the associated disease burden in Africa. Reduction to the 1% parasite prevalence threshold is possible in low- to moderate-transmission settings when vectors are primarily endophilic (indoor-resting), provided a comprehensive and sustained intervention program is achieved through roll-out of interventions. In high-transmission settings and those in which vectors are mainly exophilic (outdoor-resting), additional new tools that target exophagic (outdoor-biting), exophilic, and partly zoophagic mosquitoes will be required.
The geographic ranges of ticks and tick-borne pathogens are changing due to global and local environmental (including climatic) changes. In this review we explore current knowledge of the drivers for changes in the ranges of ticks and tick-borne pathogen species and strains via effects on their basic reproduction number (R 0), and the mechanisms of dispersal that allow ticks and tick-borne pathogens to invade suitable environments. Using the expanding geographic distribution of the vectors and agent of Lyme disease as an example we then investigate what could be expected of the diversity of tick-borne pathogens during the process of range expansion, and compare this with what is currently being observed. Lastly we explore how historic population and range expansions and contractions could be reflected in the phylogeography of ticks and tick-borne pathogens seen in recent years, and conclude that combined study of currently changing tick and tick-borne pathogen ranges and diversity, with phylogeographic analysis, may help us better predict future patterns of invasion and diversity.
A dynamic population model of Ixodes scapularis, the vector of a number of tick-borne zoonoses in North America, was developed to simulate effects of temperature on tick survival and seasonality. Tick development rates were modelled as temperature-dependent time delays, calculated using mean monthly normal temperature data from specific meteorological stations. Temperature also influenced host-finding success in the model. Using data from stations near endemic populations of I. scapularis, the model reached repeatable, stable, cyclical equilibria with seasonal activity of different instars being very close to that observed in the field. In simulations run using data from meteorological stations in central and eastern Canada, the maximum equilibrium numbers of ticks declined the further north was the station location, and simulated populations died out at more northerly stations. Tick die-out at northern latitudes was due to a steady increase in mortality of all life stages with decreasing temperature rather than a specific threshold event in phenology of one life stage. By linear regression we investigated mean annual numbers of degree-days >0 degrees C (DD>0 degrees C) as a readily mapped index of the temperature conditions at the meteorological stations providing temperature data for the model. Maximum numbers of ticks at equilibrium were strongly associated with the mean DD>0 degrees C (r2>0.96, P<0.001), when the Province of origin of the meteorological station was accounted for (Quebec>Ontario, beta=103, P<0.001). The intercepts of the regression models provided theoretical limits for the establishment of I. scapularis in Canada. Maps of these limits suggested that the range of southeast Canada where temperature conditions are currently suitable for the tick, is much wider than the existing distribution of I. scapularis, implying that there is potential for spread. Future applications of the model in investigating climate change effects on I. scapularis are discussed.
Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a leading cause of liver cancer and cirrhosis, and Egypt has possibly the highest HCV prevalence worldwide. In this article we use a newly developed Bayesian inference framework to estimate the transmission dynamics of HCV in Egypt from sampled viral gene sequences, and to predict the public health impact of the virus. Our results indicate that the effective number of HCV infections in Egypt underwent rapid exponential growth between 1930 and 1955. The timing and speed of this spread provides quantitative genetic evidence that the Egyptian HCV epidemic was initiated and propagated by extensive antischistosomiasis injection campaigns. Although our results show that HCV transmission has since decreased, we conclude that HCV is likely to remain prevalent in Egypt for several decades. Our combined population genetic and epidemiological analysis provides detailed estimates of historical changes in Egyptian HCV prevalence. Because our results are consistent with a demographic scenario specified a priori, they also provide an objective test of inference methods based on the coalescent process.
BACKGROUND Malaria is considered as the main differential diagnosis of acute febrile illness in the tropics, and alteration of various hematological parameters has been observed in patients with malaria. AIM To ascertain if certain hematological parameters increase the probability of malaria in patients with acute febrile illnesses. SETTINGS AND DESIGN Hospital based, prospective cohort study. METHODS AND MATERIAL All consecutive in patients with fever of less than seven days in duration were included in the study. Patients where localizing cause for fever could be determined were excluded. Hematological parameters (Hemoglobin, Red cell distribution width (RDW), Leukocyte count, and platelet counts) were determined by using automated counter, and peripheral smear examination for malarial parasite was taken as gold standard for the diagnosis of malaria. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS USED Diagnostic accuracy was measured by computing sensitivity, specificity, predictive values and likelihood ratios. The precision of these estimates was evaluated using 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS A total of 184 patients were included in the study and 70 (38%) had a positive peripheral smear for malarial parasite. Thrombocytopenia alone (platelet countless than 150,000/mm3) was a predictor for malaria (Sn 60%, Sp 88%, LR+ 5.04) and in combination with anemia (Hb < 10 g/dl) it was next best parameter (Sn 69%, Sp 74%, LR+ 2.77). RDW and leukocyte count were not predictive. The conclusion of this study is that the presence of thrombocytopenia in a patient with acute febrile illness increases the probability of malarial infection.
OBJECTIVE To measure the impact on transmission of leishmaniasis of curtains impregnated with insecticide. DESIGN Cluster randomised controlled trial: household interview survey, observational study of people's behaviour, entomological study with light trap captures of sandflies inside houses. SETTING 14 urban sectors in Trujillo, Venezuela. PARTICIPANTS 2913 inhabitants of 569 houses. INTERVENTION Sectors were paired according to their 12 month cumulative incidence of cutaneous leishmaniasis, one sector in each pair was randomly allocated to receive polyester curtains impregnated with lambdacyhalothrin (intervention group) while the other sector received curtains without insecticide or no curtains (control groups). After 12 months a follow up household survey was conducted. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Reduction in abundance of sandflies indoors and 12 month incidence of clinical cases of cutaneous leishmaniasis. RESULTS Transmission of cutaneous leishmaniasis occurred mainly in the domestic setting, with the incidence over 12 months of 4%. The mean number of sandflies per trap per night was 16. After follow up the 12 month incidence of cutaneous leishmaniasis was 0% in the intervention group and 8% in the six pairs in the control group that received unimpregnated curtains (mean difference 8, 95% confidence interval 4.22 to 11.78; P=0.001). There were significantly fewer sandflies in the intervention group (2 v 15, mean difference 13 sandflies per trap; 9 to 17; P<0.001). CONCLUSION Curtains impregnated with insecticide provide a high degree of protection against indoor transmission of cutaneous leishmaniasis.
BACKGROUND Artemisinin derivatives used in recently introduced combination therapies (ACTs) for Plasmodium falciparum malaria significantly lower patient infectiousness and have the potential to reduce population-level transmission of the parasite. With the increased interest in malaria elimination, understanding the impact on transmission of ACT and other antimalarial drugs with different pharmacodynamics becomes a key issue. This study estimates the reduction in transmission that may be achieved by introducing different types of treatment for symptomatic P. falciparum malaria in endemic areas. METHODS AND FINDINGS We developed a mathematical model to predict the potential impact on transmission outcomes of introducing ACT as first-line treatment for uncomplicated malaria in six areas of varying transmission intensity in Tanzania. We also estimated the impact that could be achieved by antimalarials with different efficacy, prophylactic time, and gametocytocidal effects. Rates of treatment, asymptomatic infection, and symptomatic infection in the six study areas were estimated using the model together with data from a cross-sectional survey of 5,667 individuals conducted prior to policy change from sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine to ACT. The effects of ACT and other drug types on gametocytaemia and infectiousness to mosquitoes were independently estimated from clinical trial data. Predicted percentage reductions in prevalence of infection and incidence of clinical episodes achieved by ACT were highest in the areas with low initial transmission. A 53% reduction in prevalence of infection was seen if 100% of current treatment was switched to ACT in the area where baseline slide-prevalence of parasitaemia was lowest (3.7%), compared to an 11% reduction in the highest-transmission setting (baseline slide prevalence = 57.1%). Estimated percentage reductions in incidence of clinical episodes were similar. The absolute size of the public health impact, however, was greater in the highest-transmission area, with 54 clinical episodes per 100 persons per year averted compared to five per 100 persons per year in the lowest-transmission area. High coverage was important. Reducing presumptive treatment through improved diagnosis substantially reduced the number of treatment courses required per clinical episode averted in the lower-transmission settings although there was some loss of overall impact on transmission. An efficacious antimalarial regimen with no specific gametocytocidal properties but a long prophylactic time was estimated to be more effective at reducing transmission than a short-acting ACT in the highest-transmission setting. CONCLUSIONS Our results suggest that ACTs have the potential for transmission reductions approaching those achieved by insecticide-treated nets in lower-transmission settings. ACT partner drugs and nonartemisinin regimens with longer prophylactic times could result in a larger impact in higher-transmission settings, although their long term benefit must be evaluated in relation to the risk of development of parasite resistance.
West Nile virus (WNV) is the most common arthropod-borne flavivirus in the United States; however, the vector ligand(s) that participate in infection are not known. We now show that an Aedes aegypti C-type lectin, mosGCTL-1, is induced by WNV, interacts with WNV in a calcium-dependent manner, and facilitates infection in vivo and in vitro. A mosquito homolog of human CD45 in A. aegypti, designated mosPTP-1, recruits mosGCTL-1 to enable viral attachment to cells and to enhance viral entry. In vivo experiments show that mosGCTL-1 and mosPTP-1 function as part of the same pathway and are critical for WNV infection of mosquitoes. A similar phenomenon was also observed in Culex quinquefasciatus, a natural vector of WNV, further demonstrating that these genes participate in WNV infection. During the mosquito blood-feeding process, WNV infection was blocked in vivo with mosGCTL-1 antibodies. A molecular understanding of flaviviral-arthropod interactions may lead to strategies to control viral dissemination in nature.
Until the 1990s, Amblyomma americanum was regarded primarily as a nuisance species, but a tick of minor importance as a vector of zoonotic pathogens affecting humans. With the recent discoveries of Ehrlichia chaffeensis, Ehrlichia ewingii, and "Borrelia lonestari," the public health relevance of lone star ticks is no longer in question. During the next 25 years, the number of cases of human disease caused by A. americanum-associated pathogens will probably increase. Based on current trajectories and historic precedents, the increase will be primarily driven by biological and environmental factors that alter the geographic distribution and intensity of transmission of zoonotic pathogens. Sociologic and demographic changes that influence the likelihood of highly susceptible humans coming into contact with infected lone star ticks, in addition to advances in diagnostic capabilities and national surveillance efforts, will also contribute to the anticipated increase in the number of recognized cases of disease.
Background. Artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) reduces microscopically confirmed gametocytemia and mosquito infection. However, molecular techniques have recently revealed high prevalences of submicroscopic gametocytemia. Our objective here was to determine the effect of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) monotherapy and treatment with SP plus amodiaquine (AQ), SP plus artesunate (AS), and artemether-lumefantrine (AL; Coartem) on submicroscopic gametocytemia and infectiousness. Methods. Kenyan children (n=528) 6 months-10 years of age were randomized to 4 treatment arms. Gametocytemia was determined by both microscopy and Pfs25 RNA-based quantitative nucleic acid sequence-based amplification (Pfs25 QT-NASBA). Transmission was determined by membrane-feeding assays. Results. Gametocyte prevalence, as determined by Pfs25 QT-NASBA, was 89.4% (219/245) at enrollment and decreased after treatment with SP plus AS, SP plus AQ, and AL. Membrane-feeding assays for a group of randomly selected children revealed that the proportion of infectious children was as much as 4-fold higher than expected when based on microscopy. ACT did not significantly reduce the proportion of infectious children but did reduce the proportion of infected mosquitoes. Conclusions. Submicroscopic gametocytemia is common after treatment and contributes considerably to mosquito infection. Our findings should be interpreted in the context of transmission intensity, but the effect of ACT on malaria transmission appears to be moderate and restricted to the duration of gametocyte carriage and the proportion of mosquitoes that are infected by carriers.
BACKGROUND Prior to emergence in human populations, zoonoses such as SARS cause occasional infections in human populations exposed to reservoir species. The risk of widespread epidemics in humans can be assessed by monitoring the reproduction number R (average number of persons infected by a human case). However, until now, estimating R required detailed outbreak investigations of human clusters, for which resources and expertise are not always available. Additionally, existing methods do not correct for important selection and under-ascertainment biases. Here, we present simple estimation methods that overcome many of these limitations. METHODS AND FINDINGS Our approach is based on a parsimonious mathematical model of disease transmission and only requires data collected through routine surveillance and standard case investigations. We apply it to assess the transmissibility of swine-origin influenza A H3N2v-M virus in the US, Nipah virus in Malaysia and Bangladesh, and also present a non-zoonotic example (cholera in the Dominican Republic). Estimation is based on two simple summary statistics, the proportion infected by the natural reservoir among detected cases (G) and among the subset of the first detected cases in each cluster (F). If detection of a case does not affect detection of other cases from the same cluster, we find that R can be estimated by 1-G; otherwise R can be estimated by 1-F when the case detection rate is low. In more general cases, bounds on R can still be derived. CONCLUSIONS We have developed a simple approach with limited data requirements that enables robust assessment of the risks posed by emerging zoonoses. We illustrate this by deriving transmissibility estimates for the H3N2v-M virus, an important step in evaluating the possible pandemic threat posed by this virus. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.
The seasonal dynamics and spatial distributions of Anopheles mosquitoes and Plasmodium falciparum parasites were studied for one year at 30 villages in Malindi, Kilifi, and Kwale Districts along the coast of Kenya. Anopheline mosquitoes were sampled inside houses at each site once every two months and malaria parasite prevalence in local school children was determined at the end of the entomologic survey. A total of 5,476 Anopheles gambiae s.l. and 3,461 An. funestus were collected. Species in the An. gambiae complex, identified by a polymerase chain reaction, included 81.9% An. gambiae s.s., 12.8% An. arabiensis, and 5.3% An. merus. Anopheles gambiae s.s. contributed most to the transmission of P. falciparum along the coast as a whole, while An. funestus accounted for more than 50% of all transmission in Kwale District. Large spatial heterogeneity of transmission intensity (< 1 up to 120 infective bites per person per year) resulted in correspondingly large and significantly related variations in parasite prevalence (range = 38-83%). Thirty-two percent of the sites (7 of 22 sites) with malaria prevalences ranging from 38% to 70% had annual entomologic inoculation rates (EIR) less than five infective bites per person per year. Anopheles gambiae s.l. and An. funestus densities in Kwale were not significantly influenced by rainfall. However, both were positively correlated with rainfall one and three months previously in Malindi and Kilifi Districts, respectively. These unexpected variations in the relationship between mosquito populations and rainfall suggest environmental heterogeneity in the predominant aquatic habitats in each district. One important conclusion is that the highly non-linear relationship between EIRs and prevalence indicates that the consistent pattern of high prevalence might be governed by substantial variation in transmission intensity measured by entomologic surveys. The field-based estimate of entomologic parameters on a district level does not provide a sensitive indicator of transmission intensity in this study.
Experience gained from the Global Malaria Eradication Program (1955-72) identified a set of shared technical and operational factors that enabled some countries to successfully eliminate malaria. Spatial data for these factors were assembled for all malaria-endemic countries and combined to provide an objective, relative ranking of countries by technical, operational, and combined elimination feasibility. The analysis was done separately for Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax, and the limitations of the approach were discussed. The relative rankings suggested that malaria elimination would be most feasible in countries in the Americas and Asia, and least feasible in countries in central and west Africa. The results differed when feasibility was measured by technical or operational factors, highlighting the different types of challenge faced by each country. The results are not intended to be prescriptive, predictive, or to provide absolute assessments of feasibility, but they do show that spatial information is available to facilitate evidence-based assessments of the relative feasibility of malaria elimination by country that can be rapidly updated.
Information on global human movement patterns is central to spatial epidemiological models used to predict the behavior of influenza and other infectious diseases. Yet it remains difficult to test which modes of dispersal drive pathogen spread at various geographic scales using standard epidemiological data alone. Evolutionary analyses of pathogen genome sequences increasingly provide insights into the spatial dynamics of influenza viruses, but to date they have largely neglected the wealth of information on human mobility, mainly because no statistical framework exists within which viral gene sequences and empirical data on host movement can be combined. Here, we address this problem by applying a phylogeographic approach to elucidate the global spread of human influenza subtype H3N2 and assess its ability to predict the spatial spread of human influenza A viruses worldwide. Using a framework that estimates the migration history of human influenza while simultaneously testing and quantifying a range of potential predictive variables of spatial spread, we show that the global dynamics of influenza H3N2 are driven by air passenger flows, whereas at more local scales spread is also determined by processes that correlate with geographic distance. Our analyses further confirm a central role for mainland China and Southeast Asia in maintaining a source population for global influenza diversity. By comparing model output with the known pandemic expansion of H1N1 during 2009, we demonstrate that predictions of influenza spatial spread are most accurate when data on human mobility and viral evolution are integrated. In conclusion, the global dynamics of influenza viruses are best explained by combining human mobility data with the spatial information inherent in sampled viral genomes. The integrated approach introduced here offers great potential for epidemiological surveillance through phylogeographic reconstructions and for improving predictive models of disease control.
BACKGROUND Falciparum malaria or malaria tropica is one of the leading causes of childhood mortality worldwide. Malaria-related deaths occur mainly in sub-Saharan Africa, where an estimated 365 million clinical cases of Plasmodium falciparum malaria occur each year. In Europe, imported malaria cases occur due to returning travellers or immigration mostly from African countries. Children are more at risk than adults. The objective of this study was to identify high risk groups for imported childhood malaria in Europe in order to guide development of strategies for prevention, early recognition and management. METHODS In the period May 2003-January 2005 we reviewed all cases of paediatric malaria in the Netherlands notified by the Dutch Paediatric Surveillance System (Nederland Signalerings Centrum Kindergeneeskunde, NSCK) and the literature on imported malaria in children in Europe published between 1996 and 2006. RESULTS Malaria occurred mainly in children of long-term (n = 15, 47%) and new (n = 8, 25%) immigrants and was mostly acquired in sub-Saharan Africa. The dominant species was P. falciparum. Only one quarter of children had used adequate malaria chemoprophylaxis. Complicated disease occurred in 10 (31%) of cases. We also reviewed the literature and found 6082 reported cases of imported malaria among children in Europe; among these, four died and only one was reported to develop neurological sequelae. CONCLUSION Imported malaria in children remains an important problem and is unlikely to decrease unless the reasons for inadequate prophylaxis are addressed.