Instruct: Given a scientific claim, retrieve relevant passages that support or refute the claim.
Query: The World Health Organization's (WHO) data collection process is biased downward by unequal selection of larger outbreaks.
BACKGROUND Prior to emergence in human populations, zoonoses such as SARS cause occasional infections in human populations exposed to reservoir species. The risk of widespread epidemics in humans can be assessed by monitoring the reproduction number R (average number of persons infected by a human case). However, until now, estimating R required detailed outbreak investigations of human clusters, for which resources and expertise are not always available. Additionally, existing methods do not correct for important selection and under-ascertainment biases. Here, we present simple estimation methods that overcome many of these limitations. METHODS AND FINDINGS Our approach is based on a parsimonious mathematical model of disease transmission and only requires data collected through routine surveillance and standard case investigations. We apply it to assess the transmissibility of swine-origin influenza A H3N2v-M virus in the US, Nipah virus in Malaysia and Bangladesh, and also present a non-zoonotic example (cholera in the Dominican Republic). Estimation is based on two simple summary statistics, the proportion infected by the natural reservoir among detected cases (G) and among the subset of the first detected cases in each cluster (F). If detection of a case does not affect detection of other cases from the same cluster, we find that R can be estimated by 1-G; otherwise R can be estimated by 1-F when the case detection rate is low. In more general cases, bounds on R can still be derived. CONCLUSIONS We have developed a simple approach with limited data requirements that enables robust assessment of the risks posed by emerging zoonoses. We illustrate this by deriving transmissibility estimates for the H3N2v-M virus, an important step in evaluating the possible pandemic threat posed by this virus. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.
BACKGROUND The annual number of hospital admissions and in-hospital deaths due to severe acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI) in young children worldwide is unknown. We aimed to estimate the incidence of admissions and deaths for such infections in children younger than 5 years in 2010. METHODS We estimated the incidence of admissions for severe and very severe ALRI in children younger than 5 years, stratified by age and region, with data from a systematic review of studies published between Jan 1, 1990, and March 31, 2012, and from 28 unpublished population-based studies. We applied these incidence estimates to population estimates for 2010, to calculate the global and regional burden in children admitted with severe ALRI in that year. We estimated in-hospital mortality due to severe and very severe ALRI by combining incidence estimates with case fatality ratios from hospital-based studies. FINDINGS We identified 89 eligible studies and estimated that in 2010, 11·9 million (95% CI 10·3-13·9 million) episodes of severe and 3·0 million (2·1-4·2 million) episodes of very severe ALRI resulted in hospital admissions in young children worldwide. Incidence was higher in boys than in girls, the sex disparity being greatest in South Asian studies. On the basis of data from 37 hospital studies reporting case fatality ratios for severe ALRI, we estimated that roughly 265,000 (95% CI 160,000-450,000) in-hospital deaths took place in young children, with 99% of these deaths in developing countries. Therefore, the data suggest that although 62% of children with severe ALRI are treated in hospitals, 81% of deaths happen outside hospitals. INTERPRETATION Severe ALRI is a substantial burden on health services worldwide and a major cause of hospital referral and admission in young children. Improved hospital access and reduced inequities, such as those related to sex and rural status, could substantially decrease mortality related to such infection. Community-based management of severe disease could be an important complementary strategy to reduce pneumonia mortality and health inequities. FUNDING WHO.
This paper highlights methods for using geospatial analysis to assess, enhance, and improve recruitment efforts to ensure representativeness in study populations. We apply these methods to the Measurement to Understand Reclassification of Disease of Cabarrus/Kannapolis (MURDOCK) study, a longitudinal population health study focused on the city of Kannapolis and Cabarrus County, NC. Although efforts have been made to recruit a participant registry that is representative of the 18 ZIP code catchment region inclusive of Cabarrus County and Kannapolis, bias in such recruitment is inevitable. Participants in the MURDOCK study are geospatially referenced at entry, providing information that can be used to monitor and guide recruitment efforts. MURDOCK participant population representativeness was assessed using chi-squared tests to compare the MURDOCK population with 2010 Census data, relative to both the entire 18 ZIP code catchment area and for individual Census tracts. A logistic regression model was fit to characterize Census tracts with low recruitment, defined by fewer than 56 participants from that tract. The distance to the site at which participants enrolled was calculated, and median distance to enrollment site was used in the logistic regression. Tracts with low recruitment rates contained higher minority and younger populations, suggesting specific strategies for improving recruitment in these areas. Areal units farther away from enrollment sites were also not well-sampled, despite being in the specified study area, indicating that distance traveled to enrollment may be a barrier. These results have implications for targeting recruitment efforts and representative samples more generally, including in other population-based studies.
Spatial filters have been used as an easy and intuitive way to create smoothed disease maps. Birth weight data from New York State for 1994 and 1995 are used to compare the traditional filter type of fixed geographical size with a filter size of constant or nearly constant population size. The latter are more appropriate for mapping disease in geographic areas with widely varying population density, such as New York State. Issues such as the choice of population size for the filter, the scale of smoothing, the ability to detect true spatial variation and the ability to smooth over random spatial noise are evaluated and discussed.
The ecologic study design is routinely used by epidemiologists in spite of its limitations. It is presently unknown how well the challenges of the design are dealt with in epidemiologic research. The purpose of this bibliometric review was to critically evaluate the characteristics, statistical methods, and reporting of results of modern cross-sectional ecologic papers. A search through 6 major epidemiology journals identified all cross-sectional ecologic studies published since January 1, 2000. A total of 125 articles met the inclusion requirements and were assessed via common evaluative criteria. It was found that a considerable number of cross-sectional ecologic studies use unreliable methods or contain statistical oversights; most investigators who adjusted their outcomes for age or sex did so improperly (64%), statistical validity was a potential issue for 20% of regression models, and simple linear regression was the most common analytic approach (31%). Many authors omitted important information when discussing the ecologic nature of their study (31%), the choice of study design (58%), and the susceptibility of their research to the ecological fallacy (49%). These results suggest that there is a need for an international set of guidelines that standardizes reporting on ecologic studies. Additionally, greater attention should be given to the relevant biostatistical literature.
Importance Estimates from claims-based analyses suggest that the incidence of sepsis is increasing and mortality rates from sepsis are decreasing. However, estimates from claims data may lack clinical fidelity and can be affected by changing diagnosis and coding practices over time. Objective To estimate the US national incidence of sepsis and trends using detailed clinical data from the electronic health record (EHR) systems of diverse hospitals. Design, Setting, and Population Retrospective cohort study of adult patients admitted to 409 academic, community, and federal hospitals from 2009-2014. Exposures Sepsis was identified using clinical indicators of presumed infection and concurrent acute organ dysfunction, adapting Third International Consensus Definitions for Sepsis and Septic Shock (Sepsis-3) criteria for objective and consistent EHR-based surveillance. Main Outcomes and Measures Sepsis incidence, outcomes, and trends from 2009-2014 were calculated using regression models and compared with claims-based estimates using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification codes for severe sepsis or septic shock. Case-finding criteria were validated against Sepsis-3 criteria using medical record reviews. Results A total of 173 690 sepsis cases (mean age, 66.5 [SD, 15.5] y; 77 660 [42.4%] women) were identified using clinical criteria among 2 901 019 adults admitted to study hospitals in 2014 (6.0% incidence). Of these, 26 061 (15.0%) died in the hospital and 10 731 (6.2%) were discharged to hospice. From 2009-2014, sepsis incidence using clinical criteria was stable (+0.6% relative change/y [95% CI, −2.3% to 3.5%], P = .67) whereas incidence per claims increased (+10.3%/y [95% CI, 7.2% to 13.3%], P < .001). In-hospital mortality using clinical criteria declined (−3.3%/y [95% CI, −5.6% to −1.0%], P = .004), but there was no significant change in the combined outcome of death or discharge to hospice (−1.3%/y [95% CI, −3.2% to 0.6%], P = .19). In contrast, mortality using claims declined significantly (−7.0%/y [95% CI, −8.8% to −5.2%], P < .001), as did death or discharge to hospice (−4.5%/y [95% CI, −6.1% to −2.8%], P < .001). Clinical criteria were more sensitive in identifying sepsis than claims (69.7% [95% CI, 52.9% to 92.0%] vs 32.3% [95% CI, 24.4% to 43.0%], P < .001), with comparable positive predictive value (70.4% [95% CI, 64.0% to 76.8%] vs 75.2% [95% CI, 69.8% to 80.6%], P = .23). Conclusions and Relevance In clinical data from 409 hospitals, sepsis was present in 6% of adult hospitalizations, and in contrast to claims-based analyses, neither the incidence of sepsis nor the combined outcome of death or discharge to hospice changed significantly between 2009-2014. The findings also suggest that EHR-based clinical data provide more objective estimates than claims-based data for sepsis surveillance.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Office of Workforce and Career Development is committed to developing a competent, sustainable, and diverse public health workforce through evidence-based training, career and leadership development, and strategic workforce planning to improve population health outcomes. This article reviews the previous efforts in identifying priorities of public health workforce research, which are summarized as eight major research themes. We outline a strategic framework for public health workforce research that includes six functional areas (ie, definition and standards, data, methodology, evaluation, policy, and dissemination and translation). To conceptualize and prioritize development of an actionable public health research agenda, we constructed a matrix of key challenges in workforce analysis by public health workforce categories. Extensive reviews were conducted to identify valuable methods, models, and approaches to public health workforce research. We explore new tools and approaches for addressing priority areas for public health workforce and career development research and assess how tools from multiple disciplines of social sciences can guide the development of a research framework for advancing public health workforce research and policy.
Many countries use the cost-effectiveness thresholds recommended by the World Health Organization's Choosing Interventions that are Cost-Effective project (WHO-CHOICE) when evaluating health interventions. This project sets the threshold for cost-effectiveness as the cost of the intervention per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted less than three times the country's annual gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. Highly cost-effective interventions are defined as meeting a threshold per DALY averted of once the annual GDP per capita. We argue that reliance on these thresholds reduces the value of cost-effectiveness analyses and makes such analyses too blunt to be useful for most decision-making in the field of public health. Use of these thresholds has little theoretical justification, skirts the difficult but necessary ranking of the relative values of locally-applicable interventions and omits any consideration of what is truly affordable. The WHO-CHOICE thresholds set such a low bar for cost-effectiveness that very few interventions with evidence of efficacy can be ruled out. The thresholds have little value in assessing the trade-offs that decision-makers must confront. We present alternative approaches for applying cost-effectiveness criteria to choices in the allocation of health-care resources.
The Women's Interagency HIV Study comprises the largest U.S. cohort to date of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-seropositive women (N = 2,058) with a comparison cohort of seronegative women (N = 568). The methodology, training, and quality assurance activities employed are described. The study pop
Intrahost genetic diversity was analysed in naturally infected mosquitoes and birds to determine whether West Nile virus (WNV) exists in nature as a quasispecies and to quantify selective pressures within and between hosts. WNV was sampled from ten infected birds and ten infected mosquito pools collected on Long Island, NY, USA, during the peak of the 2003 WNV transmission season. A 1938 nt fragment comprising the 3' 1159 nt of the WNV envelope (E) coding region and the 5' 779 nt of the non-structural protein 1 (NS1) coding region was amplified and cloned and 20 clones per specimen were sequenced. Results from this analysis demonstrate that WNV infections are derived from a genetically diverse population of genomes in nature. The mean nucleotide diversity was 0.016 % within individual specimens and the mean percentage of clones that differed from the consensus sequence was 19.5 %. WNV sequences in mosquitoes were significantly more genetically diverse than WNV in birds. No host-dependent bias for particular types of mutations was observed and estimates of genetic diversity did not differ significantly between E and NS1 coding sequences. Non-consensus clones obtained from two avian specimens had highly similar genetic signatures, providing preliminary evidence that WNV genetic diversity may be maintained throughout the enzootic transmission cycle, rather than arising independently during each infection. Evidence of purifying selection was obtained from both intra- and interhost WNV populations. Combined, these data support the observation that WNV populations may be structured as a quasispecies and document strong purifying natural selection in WNV populations.
BACKGROUND Multilevel models (MLM) offer complex survey data analysts a unique approach to understanding individual and contextual determinants of public health. However, little summarized guidance exists with regard to fitting MLM in complex survey data with design weights. Simulation work suggests that analysts should scale design weights using two methods and fit the MLM using unweighted and scaled-weighted data. This article examines the performance of scaled-weighted and unweighted analyses across a variety of MLM and software programs. METHODS Using data from the 2005-2006 National Survey of Children with Special Health Care Needs (NS-CSHCN: n = 40,723) that collected data from children clustered within states, I examine the performance of scaling methods across outcome type (categorical vs. continuous), model type (level-1, level-2, or combined), and software (Mplus, MLwiN, and GLLAMM). RESULTS Scaled weighted estimates and standard errors differed slightly from unweighted analyses, agreeing more with each other than with unweighted analyses. However, observed differences were minimal and did not lead to different inferential conclusions. Likewise, results demonstrated minimal differences across software programs, increasing confidence in results and inferential conclusions independent of software choice. CONCLUSION If including design weights in MLM, analysts should scale the weights and use software that properly includes the scaled weights in the estimation.
PROBLEM/CONDITION Since 1973, CDC has maintained a collaborative surveillance program for collection and periodic reporting of data on the occurrence and causes of foodborne-disease outbreaks (FBDOs) in the United States. REPORTING PERIOD COVERED This summary reviews data from January 1993 through December 1997. DESCRIPTION OF SYSTEM The Foodborne-Disease Outbreak Surveillance System reviews data concerning FBDOs, defined as the occurrence of two or more cases of a similar illness resulting from the ingestion of a common food. State and local public health departments have primary responsibility for identifying and investigating FBDOs. State, local, and territorial health departments use a standard form to report these outbreaks to CDC. RESULTS During 1993-1997, a total of 2,751 outbreaks of foodborne disease were reported (489 in 1993, 653 in 1994, 628 in 1995, 477 in 1996, and 504 in 1997). These outbreaks caused a reported 86,058 persons to become ill. Among outbreaks for which the etiology was determined, bacterial pathogens caused the largest percentage of outbreaks (75%) and the largest percentage of cases (86%). Salmonella serotype Enteritidis accounted for the largest number of outbreaks, cases, and deaths; most of these outbreaks were attributed to eating eggs. Chemical agents caused 17% of outbreaks and 1% of cases; viruses, 6% of outbreaks and 8% of cases; and parasites, 2% of outbreaks and 5% of cases. INTERPRETATION The annual number of FBDOs reported to CDC did not change substantially during this period or from previous years. During this reporting period, S. Enteritidis continued to be a major cause of illness and death. In addition, multistate outbreaks caused by contaminated produce and outbreaks caused by Escherichia coli O157:H7 remained prominent. ACTIONS TAKEN Current methods to detect FBDOs are improving, and several changes to improve the ease and timeliness of reporting FBDO data are occurring (e.g., a revised form to simplify FBDO reporting by state health departments and electronic reporting methods). State and local health departments continue to investigate and report FBDOs as part of efforts to better understand and define the epidemiology of foodborne disease in the United States. At the regional and national levels, surveillance data provide an indication of the etiologic agents, vehicles of transmission, and contributing factors associated with FBDOs and help direct public health actions to reduce illness and death caused by FBDOs.
BACKGROUND The World Health Organization (WHO) released revised guidelines in 2015 recommending that all people living with HIV, regardless of CD4 count, initiate antiretroviral therapy (ART) upon diagnosis. However, few studies have projected the global resources needed for rapid scale-up of ART. Under the Health Policy Project, we conducted modeling analyses for 97 countries to estimate eligibility for and numbers on ART from 2015 to 2020, along with the facility-level financial resources required. We compared the estimated financial requirements to estimated funding available. METHODS AND FINDINGS Current coverage levels and future need for treatment were based on country-specific epidemiological and demographic data. Simulated annual numbers of individuals on treatment were derived from three scenarios: (1) continuation of countries' current policies of eligibility for ART, (2) universal adoption of aspects of the WHO 2013 eligibility guidelines, and (3) expanded eligibility as per the WHO 2015 guidelines and meeting the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS "90-90-90" ART targets. We modeled uncertainty in the annual resource requirements for antiretroviral drugs, laboratory tests, and facility-level personnel and overhead. We estimate that 25.7 (95% CI 25.5, 26.0) million adults and 1.57 (95% CI 1.55, 1.60) million children could receive ART by 2020 if countries maintain current eligibility plans and increase coverage based on historical rates, which may be ambitious. If countries uniformly adopt aspects of the WHO 2013 guidelines, 26.5 (95% CI 26.0 27.0) million adults and 1.53 (95% CI 1.52, 1.55) million children could be on ART by 2020. Under the 90-90-90 scenario, 30.4 (95% CI 30.1, 30.7) million adults and 1.68 (95% CI 1.63, 1.73) million children could receive treatment by 2020. The facility-level financial resources needed for scaling up ART in these countries from 2015 to 2020 are estimated to be US$45.8 (95% CI 45.4, 46.2) billion under the current scenario, US$48.7 (95% CI 47.8, 49.6) billion under the WHO 2013 scenario, and US$52.5 (95% CI 51.4, 53.6) billion under the 90-90-90 scenario. After projecting recent external and domestic funding trends, the estimated 6-y financing gap ranges from US$19.8 billion to US$25.0 billion, depending on the costing scenario and the U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief contribution level, with the gap for ART commodities alone ranging from US$14.0 to US$16.8 billion. The study is limited by excluding above-facility and other costs essential to ART service delivery and by the availability and quality of country- and region-specific data. CONCLUSIONS The projected number of people receiving ART across three scenarios suggests that countries are unlikely to meet the 90-90-90 treatment target (81% of people living with HIV on ART by 2020) unless they adopt a test-and-offer approach and increase ART coverage. Our results suggest that future resource needs for ART scale-up are smaller than stated elsewhere but still significantly threaten the sustainability of the global HIV response without additional resource mobilization from domestic or innovative financing sources or efficiency gains. As the world moves towards adopting the WHO 2015 guidelines, advances in technology, including the introduction of lower-cost, highly effective antiretroviral regimens, whose value are assessed here, may prove to be "game changers" that allow more people to be on ART with the resources available.
Located in the Kassena-Nankana districts of northern Ghana, the Navrongo health and demographic surveillance system (NHDSS) was established in 1992 by the Navrongo health research centre (NHRC). The NHRC is one of three research centres of the Ghana health service. The activities and potential of the NHDSS for collaborative research are described. The NHDSS monitors health and demographic dynamics of the two Kassena-Nankana districts of northern Ghana and facilitates evaluation of the morbidity and mortality impact of health and social interventions. The total population currently under surveillance is 152 000 residing in 32 000 households. Events monitored routinely include pregnancies, births, morbidity, deaths, migration, marriages and vaccination coverage. Data updates are done every 4 months by trained fieldworkers. The NHRC also undertakes biomedical and socio-economic studies. Additional features of the NHDSS include the community key informant system where trained volunteers routinely report key events, such as births and deaths as they occur in their locality and the verbal autopsy (VA) system for determining the probable causes of deaths that occur at the community level. Data from the NHDSS are shared with funders and collaborators and partners in the INDEPTH Network. The Director of the NHDSS is the contact person for potential collaboration with the NHDSS and the use of its data.
Low case detection rates of new smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) patients globally are a cause for concern. The aim of this study was to determine for patients registered for TB in Malawi the number and percentage who lived in a neighbouring country and the registration, recording and reporting practices for these 'foreign' patients. All 44 non-private hospitals, which register and treat all TB patients in the public health sector in Malawi, were visited. Ten (23%) hospitals in 2001 and 14 (32%) in 2002 maintained a separate register for cross-border TB cases. Patients recorded in these registers were not formally reported to the Malawi National TB Programme (NTP), the neighbouring country's NTP, nor to WHO. They therefore constitute missing cases. In Malawi, the number of cross-border new smear-positive PTB cases was 77 in 2001 and 91 in 2002, constituting about 3% of missing smear-positive cases in those hospitals that maintain cross-border registers and about 1% of missing cases nationally.
IMPORTANCE Identification of the bacterium responsible for an outbreak can aid in disease management. However, traditional culture-based diagnosis can be difficult, particularly if no specific diagnostic test is available for an outbreak strain. OBJECTIVE To explore the potential of metagenomics, which is the direct sequencing of DNA extracted from microbiologically complex samples, as an open-ended clinical discovery platform capable of identifying and characterizing bacterial strains from an outbreak without laboratory culture. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS In a retrospective investigation, 45 samples were selected from fecal specimens obtained from patients with diarrhea during the 2011 outbreak of Shiga-toxigenic Escherichia coli (STEC) O104:H4 in Germany. Samples were subjected to high-throughput sequencing (August-September 2012), followed by a 3-phase analysis (November 2012-February 2013). In phase 1, a de novo assembly approach was developed to obtain a draft genome of the outbreak strain. In phase 2, the depth of coverage of the outbreak strain genome was determined in each sample. In phase 3, sequences from each sample were compared with sequences from known bacteria to identify pathogens other than the outbreak strain. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The recovery of genome sequence data for the purposes of identification and characterization of the outbreak strain and other pathogens from fecal samples. RESULTS During phase 1, a draft genome of the STEC outbreak strain was obtained. During phase 2, the outbreak strain genome was recovered from 10 samples at greater than 10-fold coverage and from 26 samples at greater than 1-fold coverage. Sequences from the Shiga-toxin genes were detected in 27 of 40 STEC-positive samples (67%). In phase 3, sequences from Clostridium difficile, Campylobacter jejuni, Campylobacter concisus, and Salmonella enterica were recovered. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE These results suggest the potential of metagenomics as a culture-independent approach for the identification of bacterial pathogens during an outbreak of diarrheal disease. Challenges include improving diagnostic sensitivity, speeding up and simplifying workflows, and reducing costs.
Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a leading cause of liver cancer and cirrhosis, and Egypt has possibly the highest HCV prevalence worldwide. In this article we use a newly developed Bayesian inference framework to estimate the transmission dynamics of HCV in Egypt from sampled viral gene sequences, and to predict the public health impact of the virus. Our results indicate that the effective number of HCV infections in Egypt underwent rapid exponential growth between 1930 and 1955. The timing and speed of this spread provides quantitative genetic evidence that the Egyptian HCV epidemic was initiated and propagated by extensive antischistosomiasis injection campaigns. Although our results show that HCV transmission has since decreased, we conclude that HCV is likely to remain prevalent in Egypt for several decades. Our combined population genetic and epidemiological analysis provides detailed estimates of historical changes in Egyptian HCV prevalence. Because our results are consistent with a demographic scenario specified a priori, they also provide an objective test of inference methods based on the coalescent process.
Several recent publications have presented different estimates for the prevalence of overweight among youth in the United States. Prevalence estimates range from 11–24%, despite describing the same results from the third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III). This paper discusses the variety and evolution of different overweight prevalence estimates. Issues of definition, measurements, criteria selection and comparison groups are considered and implications for estimates of the prevalence of overweight among youth are explored. Reference percentiles for body mass index (BMI) from several publications are compared. The differences in published estimates from NHANES III are noted and explained.
Face-to-face surveys of policy-makers and other influential leaders are a useful tool to identify, at an early stage, (a) major issues regarding the introduction of a new vaccine, (b) persons and groups in a country who play a major decision-making or influential role in the introduction of vaccines, (c) potential obstacles to the introduction of vaccines, and (d) data-needs of policy-makers to overcome these obstacles. By surveying the opinions and beliefs of those who will make or influence decisions on whether to introduce a new vaccine, these studies can help ensure that research activities respond to the needs of policy-makers in countries endemic for the target diseases. These surveys can also inform vaccine-introduction strategies by identifying financially and politically feasible means of distributing, targeting, and financing the vaccines. This paper describes the methodology used in conducting such surveys and discusses methodological issues. It also presents lessons learnt from two policy-maker surveys carried out in several Asian countries in regard to new-generation vaccines against cholera, typhoid fever, and shigellosis; and future vaccines against dengue fever/dengue haemorrhagic fever.
Cervix and Breast cancers are the most common cancers among women worldwide and extract a large toll in developing countries. In May 1998, supported by a grant from the NCI (US), the Tata Memorial Hospital, Mumbai, India, started a cluster-randomized, controlled, screening-trial for cervix and breast cancer using trained primary health workers to provide health-education, visual-inspection of cervix (with 4% acetic acid-VIA) and clinical breast examination (CBE) in the screening arm, and only health education in the control arm. Four rounds of screening at 2-year intervals will be followed by 8 years of monitoring for incidence and mortality from cervix and breast cancers. The methodology and interim results after three rounds of screening are presented here. Good randomization was achieved between the screening (n = 75360) and control arms (n = 76178). In the screening arm we see: High screening participation rates; Low attrition; Good compliance to diagnostic confirmation; Significant downstaging; Excellent treatment completion rate; Improving case fatality ratios. The ever-screened and never-screened participants in the screening arm show significant differences with reference to the variables religion, language, age, education, occupation, income and health-seeking behavior for gynecological and breast-related complaints. During the same period, in the control arm we see excellent participation rate for health education; Low attrition and a good number of symptomatic referrals for both cervix and breast.
The World Health Organization (WHO) convened an Expert Committee to reevaluate the use of anthropometry at different ages for assessing health, nutrition, and social wellbeing. The Committee's task included identifying reference data for anthropometric indexes when appropriate, and providing guidelines on how the data should be used. For fetal growth, the Committee recommended an existing sex-specific multiracial reference. In view of the significant technical drawbacks of the current National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS)/WHO reference and its inadequacy for assessing the growth of breast-fed infants, the Committee recommended the development of a new reference concerning weight and length/height for infants and children, which will be a complex and costly undertaking. Proper interpretation of midupper arm circumference for preschoolers requires age-specific reference data. To evaluate adolescent height-for-age, the Committee recommended the current NCHS/WHO reference. Use of the NCHS body mass index (BMI) data, with their upper percentile elevations and skewness, is undesirable for setting health goals; however, these data were provisionally recommended for defining obesity based on a combination of elevated BMI and high subcutaneous fat. The NCHS values were provisionally recommended as reference data for subscapular and triceps skinfold thicknesses. Guidelines were also provided for adjusting adolescent anthropometric comparisons for maturational status. Currently, there is no need for adult reference data for BMI; interpretation should be based on pragmatic BMI cutoffs. Finally, the Committee noted that few normative anthropometric data exist for the elderly, especially for those > 80 y of age. Proper definitions of health status, function, and biologic age remain to be developed for this group.
Since 2008 the World Health Organization (WHO), through its mental health Gap Action Programme, has attempted to revitalize efforts to integrate mental health into non-specialized (e.g. primary) healthcare. While this has led to renewed interest in this potential method of mental health service delivery, it has also prompted criticism. Some concerns raised are that it would contribute to the medicalization of social and psychological problems, and narrowly focus on primary care without sufficient attention given to strengthening other levels of the healthcare system, notably community-based care and care on district levels. This paper discusses seven elements that may be critical to preventing inadvertently contributing to increasing a narrow biomedical approach to mental healthcare when integrating mental health into non-specialized healthcare: (1) using task shifting approaches within a system of stepped care, (2) ensuring primary mental healthcare also includes brief psychotherapeutic interventions, (3) promote community-based recovery-oriented interventions for people with disabling chronic mental disorders, (4) conceptualizing training as a continuous process of strengthening clinical competencies through supervision, (5) engaging communities as partners in psychosocial interventions, (6) embedding shifts to primary mental healthcare within wider health policy reforms, and (7) promoting inter-sectoral approaches to address social determinants of mental health.
Over 75% of the annual estimated 9.5 million deaths in India occur in the home, and the large majority of these do not have a certified cause. India and other developing countries urgently need reliable quantification of the causes of death. They also need better epidemiological evidence about the relevance of physical (such as blood pressure and obesity), behavioral (such as smoking, alcohol, HIV-1 risk taking, and immunization history), and biological (such as blood lipids and gene polymorphisms) measurements to the development of disease in individuals or disease rates in populations. This report here is on the rationale, design, and implementation of the worldâ€™s largest prospective study of the causes and correlates of mortality. Nearly 14 million people in 2.4 million nationally representative Indian households will be monitored (for vital status and, if dead, the causes of death through a well-validated verbal autopsy (VA) instrument. be addressed. This study will reliably document not only the underlying cause of child and adult deaths but also key risk factors (behavioral, physical, environmental, and eventually, genetic). It offers a globally replicable model for reliably estimating cause-specific mortality using VA and strengthens Indiaâ€™s flagship mortality monitoring system. Despite the misclassification that is still expected, the new cause-of-death data will be substantially better than that available previously.[PLoS Medicine, February 2006.]
This paper describes the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) for estimating and projecting HIV prevalence levels in countries with generalised epidemics. The paper gives an overall summary of the software and interface. It describes the process of defining and modelling a national epidemic in terms of locally relevant sub-epidemics and the four epidemiological parameters used to fit a curve to produce the prevalence trends in the epidemic. It also provides an example of using the EPP in a country with a generalised epidemic. The paper discusses the strengths and weaknesses of the software and its envisaged future developments.
A number of authors have attempted to defend ecologic (aggregate) studies by claiming that the goal of those studies is estimation of ecologic (contextual or group-level) effects rather than individual-level effects. Critics of these attempts point out that ecologic effect estimates are inevitably used as estimates of individual effects, despite disclaimers. A more subtle problem is that ecologic variation in the distribution of individual effects can bias ecologic estimates of contextual effects. The conditions leading to this bias are plausible and perhaps even common in studies of ecosocial factors and health outcomes because social context is not randomized across typical analysis units (administrative regions). By definition, ecologic data contain only marginal observations on the joint distribution of individually defined confounders and outcomes, and so identify neither contextual nor individual-level effects. While ecologic studies can still be useful given appropriate caveats, their problems are better addressed by multilevel study designs, which obtain and use individual as well as group-level data. Nonetheless, such studies often share certain special problems with ecologic studies, including problems due to inappropriate aggregation and problems due to temporal changes in covariate distributions.