Instruct: Given a scientific claim, retrieve relevant passages that support or refute the claim.
Query: Cost effectiveness evaluations based on cRCT data lack external validity.
BACKGROUND Data on absolute risks of outcomes and patterns of drug use in cost-effectiveness analyses are often based on randomised clinical trials (RCTs). The objective of this study was to evaluate the external validity of published cost-effectiveness studies by comparing the data used in these studies (typically based on RCTs) to observational data from actual clinical practice. Selective Cox-2 inhibitors (coxibs) were used as an example. METHODS AND FINDINGS The UK General Practice Research Database (GPRD) was used to estimate the exposure characteristics and individual probabilities of upper gastrointestinal (GI) events during current exposure to nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) or coxibs. A basic cost-effectiveness model was developed evaluating two alternative strategies: prescription of a conventional NSAID or coxib. Outcomes included upper GI events as recorded in GPRD and hospitalisation for upper GI events recorded in the national registry of hospitalisations (Hospital Episode Statistics) linked to GPRD. Prescription costs were based on the prescribed number of tables as recorded in GPRD and the 2006 cost data from the British National Formulary. The study population included over 1 million patients prescribed conventional NSAIDs or coxibs. Only a minority of patients used the drugs long-term and daily (34.5% of conventional NSAIDs and 44.2% of coxibs), whereas coxib RCTs required daily use for at least 6-9 months. The mean cost of preventing one upper GI event as recorded in GPRD was US$104k (ranging from US$64k with long-term daily use to US$182k with intermittent use) and US$298k for hospitalizations. The mean costs (for GPRD events) over calendar time were US$58k during 1990-1993 and US$174k during 2002-2005. Using RCT data rather than GPRD data for event probabilities, the mean cost was US$16k with the VIGOR RCT and US$20k with the CLASS RCT. CONCLUSIONS The published cost-effectiveness analyses of coxibs lacked external validity, did not represent patients in actual clinical practice, and should not have been used to inform prescribing policies. External validity should be an explicit requirement for cost-effectiveness analyses.
I present methods for assessing the relative effectiveness of two treatments when they have not been compared directly in a randomized trial but have each been compared to other treatments. These network meta-analysis techniques allow estimation of both heterogeneity in the effect of any given treatment and inconsistency ('incoherence') in the evidence from different pairs of treatments. A simple estimation procedure using linear mixed models is given and used in a meta-analysis of treatments for acute myocardial infarction.
OBJECTIVE To evaluate the cost effectiveness of standard treatment with and without the addition of ward based non-invasive ventilation in patients admitted to hospital with an acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. DESIGN Incremental cost effectiveness analysis of a randomised controlled trial. SETTING Medical wards in 14 hospitals in the United Kingdom. PARTICIPANTS The trial comprised 236 patients admitted to hospital with an acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and mild to moderate acidosis (pH 7.25-7.35) secondary to respiratory failure. The economic analysis compared the costs of treatment that these patients received after randomisation. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE Incremental cost per in-hospital death. RESULTS 24/118 died in the group receiving standard treatment and 12/118 in the group receiving non-invasive ventilation (P=0.05). Allocation to the group receiving non-invasive ventilation was associated with a reduction in costs of 49362 pounds sterling (78741 dollars; 73109 euros), mainly through reduced use of intensive care units. The incremental cost effectiveness ratio was -645 pounds sterling per death avoided (95% confidence interval -2310 pounds sterling to 386 pounds sterling), indicating a dominant (more effective and less costly) strategy. Modelling of these data indicates that a typical UK hospital providing a non-invasive ventilation service will avoid six deaths and three to nine admissions to intensive care units per year, with an associated cost reduction of 12000-53000 pounds sterling per year. CONCLUSIONS Non-invasive ventilation is a highly cost effective treatment that both reduced total costs and improved mortality in hospital.
Statements like "quality of care is more highly valued than waiting time" can neither be supported nor refuted by comparisons of utility parameters from a traditional discrete choice experiment (DCE). Best--worst scaling can overcome this problem because it asks respondents to perform a different choice task. However, whilst the nature of the best--worst task is generally understood, there are a number of issues relating to the design and analysis of a best--worst choice experiment that require further exposition. This paper illustrates how to aggregate and analyse such data and using a quality of life pilot study demonstrates how richer insights can be drawn by the use of best--worst tasks.
The Bologna criteria for defining poor ovarian response (POR) during IVF provide a useful template for new research in this field of assisted conception. However, designing studies around the European Society for Human Reproduction and Embryology POR criteria can be methodologically challenging, as the new definition includes various POR subpopulations with diverse baseline characteristics and unknown clinical prognosis. When designing RCTs, potential result bias may be introduced if women from each subpopulation are not evenly allocated between intervention groups. In the case of small or moderate-size RCTs, a single-sequence randomization method may not ensure balanced allocation between groups. Stratified randomization methods provide an alternative methodological approach. Depending on the chosen methodology, patient characteristics and outcomes within each intervention group may be better reported according to relevant subpopulations.
Previous studies with undergraduates have provided support for the reliability and oblique three-factor structure of a new scale, the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS). We examined the reliability and validity of the PCS in adult community and pain outpatient samples. The PCS showed a high internal consistency in both groups. Using data from the community sample, confirmatory factor analyses showed that the PCS taps a single construct characterized by three related dimensions. Gender differences were obtained on the PCS total score in the community and the outpatient samples. The analyses also showed significant differences between the community and the outpatient samples on the PCS total and subscales. Overall, the results showed strong evidence of criterion-related, concurrent, and discriminant validity for the PCS in the community sample. Limitations of the present study are discussed.
Short-term medical service trips (MSTs) aim to address unmet health care needs of low- and middle-income countries. The lack of critically reviewed empirical evidence of activities and outcomes is a concern. Developing evidence-based recommendations for health care delivery requires systematic research review. I focused on MST publications with empirical results. Searches in May 2013 identified 67 studies published since 1993, only 6% of the published articles on the topic in the past 20 years. Nearly 80% reported on surgical trips. Although the MST field is growing, its medical literature lags behind, with nearly all of the scholarly publications lacking significant data collection. By incorporating data collection into service trips, groups can validate practices and provide information about areas needing improvement.
Although interest in clinical guidelines has never been greater, uncertainty persists about whether they are effective. The debate has been hampered by the lack of a rigorous overview. We have identified 59 published evaluations of clinical guidelines that met defined criteria for scientific rigour; 24 investigated guidelines for specific clinical conditions, 27 studied preventive care, and 8 looked at guidelines for prescribing or for support services. All but 4 of these studies detected significant improvements in the process of care after the introduction of guidelines and all but 2 of the 11 studies that assessed the outcome of care reported significant improvements. We conclude that explicit guidelines do improve clinical practice, when introduced in the context of rigorous evaluations. However, the size of the improvements in performance varied considerably.
OBJECTIVE To determine the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of using information from circulating biomarkers to inform the prioritisation process of patients with stable angina awaiting coronary artery bypass graft surgery. DESIGN Decision analytical model comparing four prioritisation strategies without biomarkers (no formal prioritisation, two urgency scores, and a risk score) and three strategies based on a risk score using biomarkers: a routinely assessed biomarker (estimated glomerular filtration rate), a novel biomarker (C reactive protein), or both. The order in which to perform coronary artery bypass grafting in a cohort of patients was determined by each prioritisation strategy, and mean lifetime costs and quality adjusted life years (QALYs) were compared. DATA SOURCES Swedish Coronary Angiography and Angioplasty Registry (9935 patients with stable angina awaiting coronary artery bypass grafting and then followed up for cardiovascular events after the procedure for 3.8 years), and meta-analyses of prognostic effects (relative risks) of biomarkers. RESULTS The observed risk of cardiovascular events while on the waiting list for coronary artery bypass grafting was 3 per 10,000 patients per day within the first 90 days (184 events in 9935 patients). Using a cost effectiveness threshold of pound20,000- pound30,000 (euro22,000-euro33,000; $32,000-$48,000) per additional QALY, a prioritisation strategy using a risk score with estimated glomerular filtration rate was the most cost effective strategy (cost per additional QALY was < pound410 compared with the Ontario urgency score). The impact on population health of implementing this strategy was 800 QALYs per 100,000 patients at an additional cost of pound 245,000 to the National Health Service. The prioritisation strategy using a risk score with C reactive protein was associated with lower QALYs and higher costs compared with a risk score using estimated glomerular filtration rate. CONCLUSION Evaluating the cost effectiveness of prognostic biomarkers is important even when effects at an individual level are small. Formal prioritisation of patients awaiting coronary artery bypass grafting using a routinely assessed biomarker (estimated glomerular filtration rate) along with simple, routinely collected clinical information was cost effective. Prioritisation strategies based on the prognostic information conferred by C reactive protein, which is not currently measured in this context, or a combination of C reactive protein and estimated glomerular filtration rate, is unlikely to be cost effective. The widespread practice of using only implicit or informal means of clinically ordering the waiting list may be harmful and should be replaced with formal prioritisation approaches.
BACKGROUND Patient experience is increasingly used to assess organizational performance, for example in public reporting or pay-for-performance schemes. Conventional approaches using 95% confidence intervals are commonly used to determine required survey samples or to report performance but these may result in unreliable organizational comparisons. METHODS We analyzed data from 2.2 million patients who responded to the English 2009 General Practice Patient Survey, which included 45 patient experience questions nested within 6 different care domains (access, continuity of care, communication, anticipatory care planning, out-of-hours care, and overall care satisfaction). For each question, unadjusted and case-mix adjusted (for age, sex, and ethnicity) organization-level reliability, and intraclass correlation coefficients were calculated. RESULTS Mean responses per organization ranged from 23 to 256 for questions evaluating primary care practices, and from 1454 to 2758 for questions evaluating out-of-hours care organizations. Adjusted and unadjusted reliability values were similar. Twenty-six questions had excellent reliability (≥0.90). Seven nurse communication questions had very good reliability (≥0.85), but 3 anticipatory care planning questions had lower reliability (<0.70). Reliability was typically <0.70 for questions with <100 mean responses per practice, usually indicating questions which only a subset of patients were eligible to answer. Nine questions had both excellent reliability and high intraclass correlation coefficients (≥0.10) indicating both reliable measurement and substantial performance variability. CONCLUSIONS High reliability is a necessary property of indicators used to compare health care organizations. Using the English General Practice Patient Survey as a case study, we show how reliability and intraclass correlation coefficients can be used to select measures to support robust organizational comparisons, and to design surveys that will both provide high-quality measurement and optimize survey costs.
Informal carers in cancer and palliative care are known to have high needs and psychological morbidity, yet a literature review identified few targeted interventions. This systematic review of interventions for carers of patients using home cancer and palliative care services searched Medline, CancerLit, Psycinfo and Cinahl databases. The terms used were carer(s), caregiver(s), palliative and cancer. Papers that reported interventions for adults actively providing informal care for noninstitutionalized cancer and palliative care patients were reviewed. Twenty-two interventions were identified, comprising home nursing care (four), respite services (three), social networks and activity enhancement (two), problem solving and education (three) and group work (10). Of these, nine were delivered solely to carers (i.e., were targeted services). Only six of the carers' interventions had been evaluated, two of these had used a randomized control trial (RCT; grades IB), three employed a single group methodology (two prospective grades IIIC and one retrospective grade IIIC) and one was evaluated using facilitator feedback. There was a lack of outcome evaluation designs, small sample sizes and a reliance on intervention descriptions and formative evaluations. Methodological challenges may mean alternatives to 'pure' RCTs should be considered. The current evidence contributes more to understanding feasibility and acceptability than to effectiveness. Practitioners and evaluators must prioritize the further development of intervention studies.
BACKGROUND Dealing with heterogeneity in meta-analyses is often tricky, and there is only limited advice for authors on what to do. We investigated how authors addressed different degrees of heterogeneity, in particular whether they used a fixed effect model, which assumes that all the included studies are estimating the same true effect, or a random effects model where this is not assumed. METHODS We sampled randomly 60 Cochrane reviews from 2008, which presented a result in its first meta-analysis with substantial heterogeneity (I2 greater than 50%, i.e. more than 50% of the variation is due to heterogeneity rather than chance). We extracted information on choice of statistical model, how the authors had handled the heterogeneity, and assessed the methodological quality of the reviews in relation to this. RESULTS The distribution of heterogeneity was rather uniform in the whole I2 interval, 50-100%. A fixed effect model was used in 33 reviews (55%), but there was no correlation between I2 and choice of model (P = 0.79). We considered that 20 reviews (33%), 16 of which had used a fixed effect model, had major problems. The most common problems were: use of a fixed effect model and lack of rationale for choice of that model, lack of comment on even severe heterogeneity and of reservations and explanations of its likely causes. The problematic reviews had significantly fewer included trials than other reviews (4.3 vs. 8.0, P = 0.024). The problems became less pronounced with time, as those reviews that were most recently updated more often used a random effects model. CONCLUSION One-third of Cochrane reviews with substantial heterogeneity had major problems in relation to their handling of heterogeneity. More attention is needed to this issue, as the problems we identified can be essential for the conclusions of the reviews.
Systematic literature reviews are widely used as an aid to evidence based decision making. For example, reviews of randomised controlled trials are regularly used to answer questions about the effectiveness of healthcare interventions. The high profile of systematic reviews as a cornerstone of evidence based medicine, however, has led to several misconceptions about their purpose and methods. Among these is the belief that systematic reviews are applicable only to randomised controlled trials and that they are incapable of dealing with other forms of evidence, such as from non-randomised studies or qualitative research. The systematic literature review is a method of locating, appraising, and synthesising evidence. The value of regularly updated systematic reviews in the assessment of effectiveness of healthcare interventions was dramatically illustrated by Antman and colleagues, who showed that review articles failed to mention advances in treatment identified by an updated systematic review.1  It is nearly a quarter of a century since Gene Glass coined the term “meta-analysis” to refer to the quantitative synthesis of the results of primary studies.2 The importance of making explicit efforts to limit bias in the review of literature, however, has been emphasised by social scientists at least since the 1960s.3 In recent years systematic reviews have found an important role in health services research, and the growing interest in evidence based approaches to decision making makes it likely that their use will increase. Not everybody accepts that systematic reviews are necessary or desirable, and as one moves further away from the clinical applications of systematic reviews cynicism about their utility grows. Several arguments are commonly used to reject a wider role for systematic reviews, and these arguments are often based on major misconceptions about the history, purpose, methods, and uses of systematic reviews. I have examined eight common myths about …
A novel design for intervention studies is presented, the so called PROBE study (Prospective Randomized Open, Blinded End-point). This design is compared to the classical double-blind design. Among the advantages of the PROBE design are lower cost and greater similarity to standard clinical practice, which should make the results more easily applicable in routine medical care. Since end-points are evaluated by a blinded end-point committee it is obvious that there should be no difference between the two types of trials in this regard.
We study recently developed nonparametric methods for estimating the number of missing studies that might exist in a meta-analysis and the effect that these studies might have had on its outcome. These are simple rank-based data augmentation techniques, which formalize the use of funnel plots. We show that they provide effective and relatively powerful tests for evaluating the existence of such publication bias. After adjusting for missing studies, we find that the point estimate of the overall effect size is approximately correct and coverage of the effect size confidence intervals is substantially improved, in many cases recovering the nominal confidence levels entirely. We illustrate the trim and fill method on existing meta-analyses of studies in clinical trials and psychometrics.
OBJECTIVE To determine the rate of early discontinuation and non-publication of randomised controlled trials involving patients undergoing surgery. DESIGN Cross sectional observational study of registered and published trials. SETTING Randomised controlled trials of interventions in patients undergoing a surgical procedure. DATA SOURCES The ClinicalTrials.gov database was searched for interventional trials registered between January 2008 and December 2009 using the keyword "surgery". Recruitment status was extracted from the ClinicalTrials.gov database. A systematic search for studies published in peer reviewed journals was performed; if they were not found, results posted on the ClinicalTrials.gov results database were sought. Email queries were sent to trial investigators of discontinued and unpublished completed trials if no reason for the respective status was disclosed. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Trial discontinuation before completion and non-publication after completion. Logistic regression was used to determine the effect of funding source on publication status, with adjustment for intervention type and trial size. RESULTS Of 818 registered trials found using the keyword "surgery", 395 met the inclusion criteria. Of these, 21% (81/395) were discontinued early, most commonly owing to poor recruitment (44%, 36/81). The remaining 314 (79%) trials proceeded to completion, with a publication rate of 66% (208/314) at a median time of 4.9 (interquartile range 4.0-6.0) years from study completion to publication search. A further 6% (20/314) of studies presented results on ClinicalTrials.gov without a corresponding peer reviewed publication. Industry funding did not affect the rate of discontinuation (adjusted odds ratio 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.54 to 1.55) but was associated with a lower odds of publication for completed trials (0.43, 0.26 to 0.72). Investigators' email addresses for trials with an uncertain fate were identified for 71.4% (10/14) of discontinued trials and 83% (101/122) of unpublished studies. Only 43% (6/14) and 20% (25/122) replies were received. Email responses for completed trials indicated 11 trials in press, five published studies (four in non-indexed peer reviewed journals), and nine trials remaining unpublished. CONCLUSIONS One in five surgical randomised controlled trials are discontinued early, one in three completed trials remain unpublished, and investigators of unpublished studies are frequently not contactable. This represents a waste of research resources and raises ethical concerns regarding hidden clinical data and futile participation by patients with its attendant risks. To promote future efficiency and transparency, changes are proposed to research governance frameworks to overcome these concerns.
Like other branches of surgery, Urology has encountered major challenges in aligning the research processes by which new interventions are assessed with the principles of Evidence-Based Medicine. This article explains the IDEAL framework and recommendations and illustrates how they might affect the evaluation of current controversial urological procedures. From an inside perspective, we provide an overview of the efforts of the IDEAL Working Group to date with special emphasis on the field of Urology. There are clear differences between drugs and interventions in the natural history of innovations. Since the conventional framework for conducting trials of new treatments is largely based on the former, the evaluation of surgical innovations using the same template can encounter significant problems. Difficulties in performing randomized controlled trials of surgical techniques and the persistence of the case series as an important feature of the scientific literature have been the two most controversial aspects of this mismatch between the subject of research and the methodology used. The IDEAL framework provides a description of the process of innovation and development for surgical trials, and the associated recommendations provide a suggested alternative approach to developing study designs, which are appropriate for the specific problems of new techniques. IDEAL provides a new framework for surgical innovation that was developed with broad stakeholder input from the surgical community and is expected to have a transformative impact on the way that urologists perform clinical research.
In systematic reviews and meta-analysis, researchers often pool the results of the sample mean and standard deviation from a set of similar clinical trials. A number of the trials, however, reported the study using the median, the minimum and maximum values, and/or the first and third quartiles. Hence, in order to combine results, one may have to estimate the sample mean and standard deviation for such trials. In this paper, we propose to improve the existing literature in several directions. First, we show that the sample standard deviation estimation in Hozo et al. (2005) has some serious limitations and is always less satisfactory in practice. Inspired by this, we propose a new estimation method by incorporating the sample size. Second, we systematically study the sample mean and standard deviation estimation problem under more general settings where the first and third quartiles are also available for the trials. Through simulation studies, we demonstrate that the proposed methods greatly improve the existing methods and enrich the literature. We conclude our work with a summary table that serves as a comprehensive guidance for performing meta-analysis in different situations.
Background  Extensive debate exists in the healthcare community over whether outcomes of medical care at teaching hospitals and other healthcare units are better or worse than those at the respective nonteaching ones. Thus, our goal was to systematically evaluate the evidence pertaining to this question. Methods and Findings  We reviewed all studies that compared teaching versus nonteaching healthcare structures for mortality or any other patient outcome, regardless of health condition. Studies were retrieved from PubMed, contact with experts, and literature cross-referencing. Data were extracted on setting, patients, data sources, author affiliations, definition of compared groups, types of diagnoses considered, adjusting covariates, and estimates of effect for mortality and for each other outcome. Overall, 132 eligible studies were identified, including 93 on mortality and 61 on other eligible outcomes (22 addressed both). Synthesis of the available adjusted estimates on mortality yielded a summary relative risk of 0.96 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.93–1.00) for teaching versus nonteaching healthcare structures and 1.04 (95% CI, 0.99–1.10) for minor teaching versus nonteaching ones. There was considerable heterogeneity between studies (I2 = 72% for the main analysis). Results were similar in studies using clinical and those using administrative databases. No differences were seen in the 14 studies fully adjusting for volume/experience, severity, and comorbidity (relative risk 1.01). Smaller studies did not differ in their results from larger studies. Differences were seen for some diagnoses (e.g., significantly better survival for breast cancer and cerebrovascular accidents in teaching hospitals and significantly better survival from cholecystectomy in nonteaching hospitals), but these were small in magnitude. Other outcomes were diverse, but typically teaching healthcare structures did not do better than nonteaching ones. Conclusions  The available data are limited by their nonrandomized design, but overall they do not suggest that a healthcare facility's teaching status on its own markedly improves or worsens patient outcomes. Differences for specific diseases cannot be excluded, but are likely to be small.
The ecologic study design is routinely used by epidemiologists in spite of its limitations. It is presently unknown how well the challenges of the design are dealt with in epidemiologic research. The purpose of this bibliometric review was to critically evaluate the characteristics, statistical methods, and reporting of results of modern cross-sectional ecologic papers. A search through 6 major epidemiology journals identified all cross-sectional ecologic studies published since January 1, 2000. A total of 125 articles met the inclusion requirements and were assessed via common evaluative criteria. It was found that a considerable number of cross-sectional ecologic studies use unreliable methods or contain statistical oversights; most investigators who adjusted their outcomes for age or sex did so improperly (64%), statistical validity was a potential issue for 20% of regression models, and simple linear regression was the most common analytic approach (31%). Many authors omitted important information when discussing the ecologic nature of their study (31%), the choice of study design (58%), and the susceptibility of their research to the ecological fallacy (49%). These results suggest that there is a need for an international set of guidelines that standardizes reporting on ecologic studies. Additionally, greater attention should be given to the relevant biostatistical literature.
Solitary metastatic brain tumors are the most common intracranial neoplasms encountered by neurosurgeons. Surgical resection of brain metastasis with whole brain radiotherapy (WBR) significantly increases survival in comparison with WBR alone. Stereotactic radiosurgery (SR) seems to provide results that are similar to those of surgical resection. To analyze the economic efficiency of these different treatments, we compared the results of surgical resection and SR as reported in the medical literature between 1974 and 1994. We included studies in which: 1) at least 75% of patients received WBR; 2) study dates were in the computed tomography era (after 1975); 3) operative morbidity, mortality, and median survival were reported; 4) study dates were not included in a more recent update or review; 5) tumor histologies were reported; and 6) the cobalt-60 gamma unit was used for SR. Three surgical resection studies and one SR study met all entry requirements. The WBR baseline was developed from two prospective, randomized trials and used for incremental cost effectiveness analysis. We developed a model of typical resource usage for uncomplicated procedures, reported complications, and subsequent craniotomies (for recurrent tumor or radiation necrosis) for both treatment options. Costs were estimated from the societal viewpoint using the 1992 Medicare Provider Analysis and Review database with average cost:charge ratios for surgery and WBR. A survey of capital and operating costs from five sites was used for radiosurgery. Our analysis revealed that radiosurgery had a lower uncomplicated procedure cost ($20,209 versus $27,587), a lower average complication cost per case ($2,534 versus $2,874), and a lower total cost per procedure ($22,743 versus $30,461), was more cost effective ($24,811 versus $32,149 per life year), and had a better incremental cost effectiveness ($40,648 versus $52,384 per life year) than surgical resection. A sensitivity analysis revealed that large changes in key assumptions would be required to change the analysis outcome. Equalization of the incremental cost effectiveness of the two treatments would require one of the following: 1) a 38.7% reduction in SR annual case volume, 2) a 34.7% increase in SR procedure cost, 3) a 18.8% reduction in surgical resection procedure cost, 4) a 240.5% increase in SR morbidity cost, 5) a 12.7% reduction in SR median survival, 6) a 16.8% increase in surgical resection median survival. Elimination of all surgical resection morbidity cost would still result in superior incremental cost effectiveness for SR.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)
IMPORTANCE The American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) cholesterol treatment guidelines have wide-scale implications for treating adults without history of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) with statins. OBJECTIVE To estimate the cost-effectiveness of various 10-year ASCVD risk thresholds that could be used in the ACC/AHA cholesterol treatment guidelines. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Microsimulation model, including lifetime time horizon, US societal perspective, 3% discount rate for costs, and health outcomes. In the model, hypothetical individuals from a representative US population aged 40 to 75 years received statin treatment, experienced ASCVD events, and died from ASCVD-related or non-ASCVD-related causes based on ASCVD natural history and statin treatment parameters. Data sources for model parameters included National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys, large clinical trials and meta-analyses for statin benefits and treatment, and other published sources. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Estimated ASCVD events prevented and incremental costs per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. RESULTS In the base-case scenario, the current ASCVD threshold of 7.5% or higher, which was estimated to be associated with 48% of adults treated with statins, had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $37,000/QALY compared with a 10% or higher threshold. More lenient ASCVD thresholds of 4.0% or higher (61% of adults treated) and 3.0% or higher (67% of adults treated) had ICERs of $81,000/QALY and $140,000/QALY, respectively. Shifting from a 7.5% or higher ASCVD risk threshold to a 3.0% or higher ASCVD risk threshold was estimated to be associated with an additional 161,560 cardiovascular disease events averted. Cost-effectiveness results were sensitive to changes in the disutility associated with taking a pill daily, statin price, and the risk of statin-induced diabetes. In probabilistic sensitivity analysis, there was a higher than 93% chance that the optimal ASCVD threshold was 5.0% or lower using a cost-effectiveness threshold of $100,000/QALY. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this microsimulation model of US adults aged 45 to 75 years [corrected], the current 10-year ASCVD risk threshold (≥7.5% risk threshold) used in the ACC/AHA cholesterol treatment guidelines has an acceptable cost-effectiveness profile (ICER, $37,000/QALY), but more lenient ASCVD thresholds would be optimal using cost-effectiveness thresholds of $100,000/QALY (≥4.0% risk threshold) or $150,000/QALY (≥3.0% risk threshold). The optimal ASCVD threshold was sensitive to patient preferences for taking a pill daily, changes to statin price, and the risk of statin-induced diabetes.
A number of authors have attempted to defend ecologic (aggregate) studies by claiming that the goal of those studies is estimation of ecologic (contextual or group-level) effects rather than individual-level effects. Critics of these attempts point out that ecologic effect estimates are inevitably used as estimates of individual effects, despite disclaimers. A more subtle problem is that ecologic variation in the distribution of individual effects can bias ecologic estimates of contextual effects. The conditions leading to this bias are plausible and perhaps even common in studies of ecosocial factors and health outcomes because social context is not randomized across typical analysis units (administrative regions). By definition, ecologic data contain only marginal observations on the joint distribution of individually defined confounders and outcomes, and so identify neither contextual nor individual-level effects. While ecologic studies can still be useful given appropriate caveats, their problems are better addressed by multilevel study designs, which obtain and use individual as well as group-level data. Nonetheless, such studies often share certain special problems with ecologic studies, including problems due to inappropriate aggregation and problems due to temporal changes in covariate distributions.
BACKGROUND Acupuncture has become a popular complementary and alternative treatment approach. This review examined the randomized controlled trials (RCTs) examining the effects of acupuncture treatment of depression. METHODS RCTs of the treatment of depression with acupuncture were located using MEDLINE, Allied and Complementary Medicine and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. The methodology of RCTs was assessed using the Jadad criteria, and elements of research design, i.e., randomization, blinding, assessment of attrition rates, were quantified for systematic comparisons among studies. RESULTS Among the 9 RCTs examined, five were deemed to be of low quality based upon Jadad criteria. The odds ratios derived from comparing acupuncture with control conditions within the RCTs suggests some evidence for the utility of acupuncture in depression. General trends suggest that acupuncture modalities were as effective as antidepressants employed for treatment of depression in the limited studies available for comparison. However, placebo acupuncture treatment was often no different from intended verum acupuncture. LIMITATIONS The RCTs extracted were limited by small sample sizes, imprecise enrollment criteria, problems with randomization, blinding, brief duration of study and lack of longitudinal follow-up. CONCLUSIONS Despite the findings that the odds ratios of existing literature suggest a role for acupuncture in the treatment of depression, the evidence thus far is inconclusive. However, efforts are being made to standardize complementary approaches to treat depression, and further systematized research into their use is warranted.
BACKGROUND Elderly and frail patients with cancer, although often treated with chemotherapy, are under-represented in clinical trials. We designed FOCUS2 to investigate reduced-dose chemotherapy options and to seek objective predictors of outcome in frail patients with advanced colorectal cancer. METHODS We undertook an open, 2 × 2 factorial trial in 61 UK centres for patients with previously untreated advanced colorectal cancer who were considered unfit for full-dose chemotherapy. After comprehensive health assessment (CHA), patients were randomly assigned by minimisation to: 48-h intravenous fluorouracil with levofolinate (group A); oxaliplatin and fluorouracil (group B); capecitabine (group C); or oxaliplatin and capecitabine (group D). Treatment allocation was not masked. Starting doses were 80% of standard doses, with discretionary escalation to full dose after 6 weeks. The two primary outcome measures were: addition of oxaliplatin ([A vs B] + [C vs D]), assessed with progression-free survival (PFS); and substitution of fluorouracil with capecitabine ([A vs C] + [B vs D]), assessed by change from baseline to 12 weeks in global quality of life (QoL). Analysis was by intention to treat. Baseline clinical and CHA data were modelled against outcomes with a novel composite measure, overall treatment utility (OTU). This study is registered, number ISRCTN21221452. FINDINGS 459 patients were randomly assigned (115 to each of groups A-C, 114 to group D). Factorial comparison of addition of oxaliplatin versus no addition suggested some improvement in PFS, but the finding was not significant (median 5·8 months [IQR 3·3-7·5] vs 4·5 months [2·8-6·4]; hazard ratio 0·84, 95% CI 0·69-1·01, p=0·07). Replacement of fluorouracil with capecitabine did not improve global QoL: 69 of 124 (56%) patients receiving fluorouracil reported improvement in global QoL compared with 69 of 123 (56%) receiving capecitabine. The risk of having any grade 3 or worse toxic effect was not significantly increased with oxaliplatin (83/219 [38%] vs 70/221 [32%]; p=0·17), but was higher with capecitabine than with fluorouracil (88/222 [40%] vs 65/218 [30%]; p=0·03). In multivariable analysis, fewer baseline symptoms (odds ratio 1·32, 95% CI 1·14-1·52), less widespread disease (1·51, 1·05-2·19), and use of oxaliplatin (0·57, 0·39-0·82) were predictive of better OTU. INTERPRETATION FOCUS2 shows that with an appropriate design, including reduced starting doses of chemotherapy, frail and elderly patients can participate in a randomised controlled trial. On balance, a combination including oxaliplatin was preferable to single-agent fluoropyrimidines, although the primary endpoint of PFS was not met. Capecitabine did not improve QoL compared with fluorouracil. Comprehensive baseline assessment holds promise as an objective predictor of treatment benefit. FUNDING Cancer Research UK and the Medical Research Council.