Instruct: Given a scientific claim, retrieve relevant passages that support or refute the claim.
Query: One in two surgical randomized controlled trials are discontinued early.
OBJECTIVE To determine the rate of early discontinuation and non-publication of randomised controlled trials involving patients undergoing surgery. DESIGN Cross sectional observational study of registered and published trials. SETTING Randomised controlled trials of interventions in patients undergoing a surgical procedure. DATA SOURCES The ClinicalTrials.gov database was searched for interventional trials registered between January 2008 and December 2009 using the keyword "surgery". Recruitment status was extracted from the ClinicalTrials.gov database. A systematic search for studies published in peer reviewed journals was performed; if they were not found, results posted on the ClinicalTrials.gov results database were sought. Email queries were sent to trial investigators of discontinued and unpublished completed trials if no reason for the respective status was disclosed. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Trial discontinuation before completion and non-publication after completion. Logistic regression was used to determine the effect of funding source on publication status, with adjustment for intervention type and trial size. RESULTS Of 818 registered trials found using the keyword "surgery", 395 met the inclusion criteria. Of these, 21% (81/395) were discontinued early, most commonly owing to poor recruitment (44%, 36/81). The remaining 314 (79%) trials proceeded to completion, with a publication rate of 66% (208/314) at a median time of 4.9 (interquartile range 4.0-6.0) years from study completion to publication search. A further 6% (20/314) of studies presented results on ClinicalTrials.gov without a corresponding peer reviewed publication. Industry funding did not affect the rate of discontinuation (adjusted odds ratio 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.54 to 1.55) but was associated with a lower odds of publication for completed trials (0.43, 0.26 to 0.72). Investigators' email addresses for trials with an uncertain fate were identified for 71.4% (10/14) of discontinued trials and 83% (101/122) of unpublished studies. Only 43% (6/14) and 20% (25/122) replies were received. Email responses for completed trials indicated 11 trials in press, five published studies (four in non-indexed peer reviewed journals), and nine trials remaining unpublished. CONCLUSIONS One in five surgical randomised controlled trials are discontinued early, one in three completed trials remain unpublished, and investigators of unpublished studies are frequently not contactable. This represents a waste of research resources and raises ethical concerns regarding hidden clinical data and futile participation by patients with its attendant risks. To promote future efficiency and transparency, changes are proposed to research governance frameworks to overcome these concerns.
INTRODUCTION With the growing number of adult cancer survivors, there is increasing need for information that links potential late and long term effects with specific treatment regimens. Few adult cancer patients are treated on clinical trials; however, patients previously enrolled in these trials are an important source of information about treatment-related late effects. METHODS Focusing on colorectal cancer survivors, we used the database from five phase III randomized clinical trials from the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast & Bowel Project (NSABP) to recruit and enroll long term survivors in a study of late health outcomes and quality of life. We describe the challenges to recruitment of patients more than 5 -20 years after treatment. RESULTS Sixty-five NSABP treatment sites were invited to enroll patients in the study. Sixty participated with the potential to recruit 2,408 patients. We received registration forms on only 976 patients (41%) of whom 744 (76%) expressed interest in participating and 708 completed interviews (95% of those expressing interest; 29% of total potential sample). There were multiple barriers to recruitment (difficulty locating patients, lack of institutional commitment, lack of patient interest). CONCLUSIONS Patients treated on clinical trials are an important potential source for examining the late effects of cancer treatments. Retrospective recruitment has substantial limitations. In the future, mechanisms should be established for prospective long-term follow-up to identify and understand the frequency and type of late effects associated with cancer treatments. IMPLICATIONS FOR CANCER SURVIVORS As cancer patients are living longer, it will be important to learn from participants in clinical trials whether or not specific treatment regimens are associated with any serious late effects.
Psychiatrists have long recognised that routine clinical practice needs to be shaped and informed by external evidence (Lewis, 1958). Psychiatric researchers were among the first to utilise multi-centre randomised controlled trials (demonstrating the effectiveness of antipsychotics), and psychologists were among the first in the health field to develop techniques of meta-analysis. Social workers, too, point to their tradition with the publication of one of the earliest controlled trials (Lehrman, 1949).
Objective To determine the availability of data on overall survival and quality of life benefits of cancer drugs approved in Europe. Design Retrospective cohort study. Setting Publicly accessible regulatory and scientific reports on cancer approvals by the European Medicines Agency (EMA) from 2009 to 2013.Main outcome measures Pivotal and postmarketing trials of cancer drugs according to their design features (randomisation, crossover, blinding), comparators, and endpoints. Availability and magnitude of benefit on overall survival or quality of life determined at time of approval and after market entry. Validated European Society for Medical Oncology Magnitude of Clinical Benefit Scale (ESMO-MCBS) used to assess the clinical value of the reported gains in published studies of cancer drugs. Results From 2009 to 2013, the EMA approved the use of 48 cancer drugs for 68 indications. Of these, eight indications (12%) were approved on the basis of a single arm study. At the time of market approval, there was significant prolongation of survival in 24 of the 68 (35%). The magnitude of the benefit on overall survival ranged from 1.0 to 5.8 months (median 2.7 months). At the time of market approval, there was an improvement in quality of life in seven of 68 indications (10%). Out of 44 indications for which there was no evidence of a survival gain at the time of market authorisation, in the subsequent postmarketing period there was evidence for extension of life in three (7%) and reported benefit on quality of life in five (11%). Of the 68 cancer indications with EMA approval, and with a median of 5.4 years' follow-up (minimum 3.3 years, maximum 8.1 years), only 35 (51%) had shown a significant improvement in survival or quality of life, while 33 (49%) remained uncertain. Of 23 indications associated with a survival benefit that could be scored with the ESMO-MCBS tool, the benefit was judged to be clinically meaningful in less than half (11/23, 48%).Conclusions This systematic evaluation of oncology approvals by the EMA in 2009-13 shows that most drugs entered the market without evidence of benefit on survival or quality of life. At a minimum of 3.3 years after market entry, there was still no conclusive evidence that these drugs either extended or improved life for most cancer indications. When there were survival gains over existing treatment options or placebo, they were often marginal.
Short-term medical service trips (MSTs) aim to address unmet health care needs of low- and middle-income countries. The lack of critically reviewed empirical evidence of activities and outcomes is a concern. Developing evidence-based recommendations for health care delivery requires systematic research review. I focused on MST publications with empirical results. Searches in May 2013 identified 67 studies published since 1993, only 6% of the published articles on the topic in the past 20 years. Nearly 80% reported on surgical trips. Although the MST field is growing, its medical literature lags behind, with nearly all of the scholarly publications lacking significant data collection. By incorporating data collection into service trips, groups can validate practices and provide information about areas needing improvement.
The Bologna criteria for defining poor ovarian response (POR) during IVF provide a useful template for new research in this field of assisted conception. However, designing studies around the European Society for Human Reproduction and Embryology POR criteria can be methodologically challenging, as the new definition includes various POR subpopulations with diverse baseline characteristics and unknown clinical prognosis. When designing RCTs, potential result bias may be introduced if women from each subpopulation are not evenly allocated between intervention groups. In the case of small or moderate-size RCTs, a single-sequence randomization method may not ensure balanced allocation between groups. Stratified randomization methods provide an alternative methodological approach. Depending on the chosen methodology, patient characteristics and outcomes within each intervention group may be better reported according to relevant subpopulations.
Cervix and Breast cancers are the most common cancers among women worldwide and extract a large toll in developing countries. In May 1998, supported by a grant from the NCI (US), the Tata Memorial Hospital, Mumbai, India, started a cluster-randomized, controlled, screening-trial for cervix and breast cancer using trained primary health workers to provide health-education, visual-inspection of cervix (with 4% acetic acid-VIA) and clinical breast examination (CBE) in the screening arm, and only health education in the control arm. Four rounds of screening at 2-year intervals will be followed by 8 years of monitoring for incidence and mortality from cervix and breast cancers. The methodology and interim results after three rounds of screening are presented here. Good randomization was achieved between the screening (n = 75360) and control arms (n = 76178). In the screening arm we see: High screening participation rates; Low attrition; Good compliance to diagnostic confirmation; Significant downstaging; Excellent treatment completion rate; Improving case fatality ratios. The ever-screened and never-screened participants in the screening arm show significant differences with reference to the variables religion, language, age, education, occupation, income and health-seeking behavior for gynecological and breast-related complaints. During the same period, in the control arm we see excellent participation rate for health education; Low attrition and a good number of symptomatic referrals for both cervix and breast.
OBJECTIVE Funnel plots (plots of effect estimates against sample size) may be useful to detect bias in meta-analyses that were later contradicted by large trials. We examined whether a simple test of asymmetry of funnel plots predicts discordance of results when meta-analyses are compared to large trials, and we assessed the prevalence of bias in published meta-analyses. DESIGN Medline search to identify pairs consisting of a meta-analysis and a single large trial (concordance of results was assumed if effects were in the same direction and the meta-analytic estimate was within 30% of the trial); analysis of funnel plots from 37 meta-analyses identified from a hand search of four leading general medicine journals 1993-6 and 38 meta-analyses from the second 1996 issue of the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE Degree of funnel plot asymmetry as measured by the intercept from regression of standard normal deviates against precision. RESULTS In the eight pairs of meta-analysis and large trial that were identified (five from cardiovascular medicine, one from diabetic medicine, one from geriatric medicine, one from perinatal medicine) there were four concordant and four discordant pairs. In all cases discordance was due to meta-analyses showing larger effects. Funnel plot asymmetry was present in three out of four discordant pairs but in none of concordant pairs. In 14 (38%) journal meta-analyses and 5 (13%) Cochrane reviews, funnel plot asymmetry indicated that there was bias. CONCLUSIONS A simple analysis of funnel plots provides a useful test for the likely presence of bias in meta-analyses, but as the capacity to detect bias will be limited when meta-analyses are based on a limited number of small trials the results from such analyses should be treated with considerable caution.
BACKGROUND The ketogenic diet has been widely and successfully used to treat children with drug-resistant epilepsy since the 1920s. The aim of this study was to test the efficacy of the ketogenic diet in a randomised controlled trial. METHODS 145 children aged between 2 and 16 years who had at least daily seizures (or more than seven seizures per week), had failed to respond to at least two antiepileptic drugs, and had not been treated previously with the ketogenic diet participated in a randomised controlled trial of its efficacy to control seizures. Enrolment for the trial ran between December, 2001, and July, 2006. Children were seen at one of two hospital centres or a residential centre for young people with epilepsy. Children were randomly assigned to receive a ketogenic diet, either immediately or after a 3-month delay, with no other changes to treatment (control group). Neither the family nor investigators were blinded to the group assignment. Early withdrawals were recorded, and seizure frequency on the diet was assessed after 3 months and compared with that of the controls. The primary endpoint was a reduction in seizures; analysis was intention to treat. Tolerability of the diet was assessed by questionnaire at 3 months. The trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00564915. FINDINGS 73 children were assigned to the ketogenic diet and 72 children to the control group. Data from 103 children were available for analysis: 54 on the ketogenic diet and 49 controls. Of those who did not complete the trial, 16 children did not receive their intervention, 16 did not provide adequate data, and ten withdrew from the treatment before the 3-month review, six because of intolerance. After 3 months, the mean percentage of baseline seizures was significantly lower in the diet group than in the controls (62.0%vs 136.9%, 75% decrease, 95% CI 42.4-107.4%; p<0.0001). 28 children (38%) in the diet group had greater than 50% seizure reduction compared with four (6%) controls (p<0.0001), and five children (7%) in the diet group had greater than 90% seizure reduction compared with no controls (p=0.0582). There was no significant difference in the efficacy of the treatment between symptomatic generalised or symptomatic focal syndromes. The most frequent side-effects reported at 3-month review were constipation, vomiting, lack of energy, and hunger. INTERPRETATION The results from this trial of the ketogenic diet support its use in children with treatment-intractable epilepsy. FUNDING HSA Charitable Trust; Smiths Charity; Scientific Hospital Supplies; Milk Development Council.
BACKGROUND Observational studies report reduced colorectal cancer in regular aspirin consumers. Randomised controlled trials have shown reduced risk of adenomas but none have employed prevention of colorectal cancer as a primary endpoint. The CAPP2 trial aimed to investigate the antineoplastic effects of aspirin and a resistant starch in carriers of Lynch syndrome, the major form of hereditary colorectal cancer; we now report long-term follow-up of participants randomly assigned to aspirin or placebo. METHODS In the CAPP2 randomised trial, carriers of Lynch syndrome were randomly assigned in a two-by-two factorial design to 600 mg aspirin or aspirin placebo or 30 g resistant starch or starch placebo, for up to 4 years. Randomisation was in blocks of 16 with provision for optional single-agent randomisation and extended postintervention double-blind follow-up; participants and investigators were masked to treatment allocation. The primary endpoint was development of colorectal cancer. Analysis was by intention to treat and per protocol. This trial is registered, ISRCTN59521990. RESULTS 861 participants were randomly assigned to aspirin or aspirin placebo. At a mean follow-up of 55·7 months, 48 participants had developed 53 primary colorectal cancers (18 of 427 randomly assigned to aspirin, 30 of 434 to aspirin placebo). Intention-to-treat analysis of time to first colorectal cancer showed a hazard ratio (HR) of 0·63 (95% CI 0·35-1·13, p=0·12). Poisson regression taking account of multiple primary events gave an incidence rate ratio (IRR) of 0·56 (95% CI 0·32-0·99, p=0·05). For participants completing 2 years of intervention (258 aspirin, 250 aspirin placebo), per-protocol analysis yielded an HR of 0·41 (0·19-0·86, p=0·02) and an IRR of 0·37 (0·18-0·78, p=0·008). No data for adverse events were available postintervention; during the intervention, adverse events did not differ between aspirin and placebo groups. INTERPRETATION 600 mg aspirin per day for a mean of 25 months substantially reduced cancer incidence after 55·7 months in carriers of hereditary colorectal cancer. Further studies are needed to establish the optimum dose and duration of aspirin treatment. FUNDING European Union; Cancer Research UK; Bayer Corporation; National Starch and Chemical Co; UK Medical Research Council; Newcastle Hospitals trustees; Cancer Council of Victoria Australia; THRIPP South Africa; The Finnish Cancer Foundation; SIAK Switzerland; Bayer Pharma.
INTRODUCTION Recurrent miscarriage (RM) is diagnosed when a woman has had three or more miscarriages. Increased levels of distress and anxiety are common during the waiting period of any subsequent pregnancies, posing a significant threat to psychological well-being. However, only limited support and therapy are available for these women, and many are left to cope alone. The Positive Reappraisal Coping Intervention (PRCI) is a novel self-administered supportive technique which has been shown to be effective in patients awaiting the outcome of in vitro fertilisation treatment. The primary objective of this study is to assess the feasibility and effectiveness of the PRCI in improving quality of life in the difficult waiting period which women with previous RM endure before an ongoing pregnancy can be confirmed. METHODS AND ANALYSIS A randomised controlled trial (RCT) feasibility study will establish the viability of conducting a multicentre RCT to definitively test the effects of the PRCI on the psychological well-being of women who have experienced RM during the initial waiting period of a subsequent pregnancy. A second component consists of a qualitative process evaluation exploring the initial experience of pregnancy following repeated miscarriages. Participants (n=50) will be randomised into one of two groups. The PRCI intervention group will receive the PRCI card and weekly questionnaires to assess their psychological well-being during the waiting period of their new pregnancy. The non-intervention group will be asked to complete the same weekly questionnaires. The qualitative process analysis will employ semistructured interviews (n=20) to address relevant aspects of the study objectives. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION Ethics approval has been obtained from the National Research Ethics Service Committee South Central-Hampshire A. Participating centres have given National Health Service R&D approval. Study findings will be disseminated through peer reviewed journals, national and international conferences and lay user groups. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER ISRCTN43571276. This study was registered with the ISRCTN 18/02/2014 following adoption onto the United Kingdom Clinical Research Network (UKCRN) portfolio. Recruitment of the first participant occurred 04/02/2014.
IMPORTANCE The need for surgery for the majority of patients with displaced proximal humeral fractures is unclear, but its use is increasing. OBJECTIVE To evaluate the clinical effectiveness of surgical vs nonsurgical treatment for adults with displaced fractures of the proximal humerus involving the surgical neck. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS A pragmatic, multicenter, parallel-group, randomized clinical trial, the Proximal Fracture of the Humerus Evaluation by Randomization (PROFHER) trial, recruited 250 patients aged 16 years or older (mean age, 66 years [range, 24-92 years]; 192 [77%] were female; and 249 [99.6%] were white) who presented at the orthopedic departments of 32 acute UK National Health Service hospitals between September 2008 and April 2011 within 3 weeks after sustaining a displaced fracture of the proximal humerus involving the surgical neck. Patients were followed up for 2 years (up to April 2013) and 215 had complete follow-up data. The data for 231 patients (114 in surgical group and 117 in nonsurgical group) were included in the primary analysis. INTERVENTIONS Fracture fixation or humeral head replacement were performed by surgeons experienced in these techniques. Nonsurgical treatment was sling immobilization. Standardized outpatient and community-based rehabilitation was provided to both groups. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Primary outcome was the Oxford Shoulder Score (range, 0-48; higher scores indicate better outcomes) assessed during a 2-year period, with assessment and data collection at 6, 12, and 24 months. Sample size was based on a minimal clinically important difference of 5 points for the Oxford Shoulder Score. Secondary outcomes were the Short-Form 12 (SF-12), complications, subsequent therapy, and mortality. RESULTS There was no significant mean treatment group difference in the Oxford Shoulder Score averaged over 2 years (39.07 points for the surgical group vs 38.32 points for the nonsurgical group; difference of 0.75 points [95% CI, -1.33 to 2.84 points]; P = .48) or at individual time points. There were also no significant between-group differences over 2 years in the mean SF-12 physical component score (surgical group: 1.77 points higher [95% CI, -0.84 to 4.39 points]; P = .18); the mean SF-12 mental component score (surgical group: 1.28 points lower [95% CI, -3.80 to 1.23 points]; P = .32); complications related to surgery or shoulder fracture (30 patients in surgical group vs 23 patients in nonsurgical group; P = .28), requiring secondary surgery to the shoulder (11 patients in both groups), and increased or new shoulder-related therapy (7 patients vs 4 patients, respectively; P = .58); and mortality (9 patients vs 5 patients; P = .27). Ten medical complications (2 cardiovascular events, 2 respiratory events, 2 gastrointestinal events, and 4 others) occurred in the surgical group during the postoperative hospital stay. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Among patients with displaced proximal humeral fractures involving the surgical neck, there was no significant difference between surgical treatment compared with nonsurgical treatment in patient-reported clinical outcomes over 2 years following fracture occurrence. These results do not support the trend of increased surgery for patients with displaced fractures of the proximal humerus. TRIAL REGISTRATION isrctn.com Identifier: ISRCTN50850043.
BACKGROUND Antiresorptive agents are widely used to treat osteoporosis. We report the results of a multinational randomized, double-blind study, in which postmenopausal women with osteoporosis were treated with alendronate for up to 10 years. METHODS The initial three-year phase of the study compared three daily doses of alendronate with placebo. Women in the original placebo group received alendronate in years 4 and 5 and then were discharged. Women in the original active-treatment groups continued to receive alendronate during the initial extension (years 4 and 5). In two further extensions (years 6 and 7, and 8 through 10), women who had received 5 mg or 10 mg of alendronate daily continued on the same treatment. Women in the discontinuation group received 20 mg of alendronate daily for two years and 5 mg daily in years 3, 4, and 5, followed by five years of placebo. Randomized group assignments and blinding were maintained throughout the 10 years. We report results for the 247 women who participated in all four phases of the study. RESULTS Treatment with 10 mg of alendronate daily for 10 years produced mean increases in bone mineral density of 13.7 percent at the lumbar spine (95 percent confidence interval, 12.0 to 15.5 percent), 10.3 percent at the trochanter (95 percent confidence interval, 8.1 to 12.4 percent), 5.4 percent at the femoral neck (95 percent confidence interval, 3.5 to 7.4 percent), and 6.7 percent at the total proximal femur (95 percent confidence interval, 4.4 to 9.1 percent) as compared with base-line values; smaller gains occurred in the group given 5 mg daily. The discontinuation of alendronate resulted in a gradual loss of effect, as measured by bone density and biochemical markers of bone remodeling. Safety data, including fractures and stature, did not suggest that prolonged treatment resulted in any loss of benefit. CONCLUSIONS The therapeutic effects of alendronate were sustained, and the drug was well tolerated over a 10-year period. The discontinuation of alendronate resulted in the gradual loss of its effects.
BACKGROUND Dealing with heterogeneity in meta-analyses is often tricky, and there is only limited advice for authors on what to do. We investigated how authors addressed different degrees of heterogeneity, in particular whether they used a fixed effect model, which assumes that all the included studies are estimating the same true effect, or a random effects model where this is not assumed. METHODS We sampled randomly 60 Cochrane reviews from 2008, which presented a result in its first meta-analysis with substantial heterogeneity (I2 greater than 50%, i.e. more than 50% of the variation is due to heterogeneity rather than chance). We extracted information on choice of statistical model, how the authors had handled the heterogeneity, and assessed the methodological quality of the reviews in relation to this. RESULTS The distribution of heterogeneity was rather uniform in the whole I2 interval, 50-100%. A fixed effect model was used in 33 reviews (55%), but there was no correlation between I2 and choice of model (P = 0.79). We considered that 20 reviews (33%), 16 of which had used a fixed effect model, had major problems. The most common problems were: use of a fixed effect model and lack of rationale for choice of that model, lack of comment on even severe heterogeneity and of reservations and explanations of its likely causes. The problematic reviews had significantly fewer included trials than other reviews (4.3 vs. 8.0, P = 0.024). The problems became less pronounced with time, as those reviews that were most recently updated more often used a random effects model. CONCLUSION One-third of Cochrane reviews with substantial heterogeneity had major problems in relation to their handling of heterogeneity. More attention is needed to this issue, as the problems we identified can be essential for the conclusions of the reviews.
BACKGROUND Data on absolute risks of outcomes and patterns of drug use in cost-effectiveness analyses are often based on randomised clinical trials (RCTs). The objective of this study was to evaluate the external validity of published cost-effectiveness studies by comparing the data used in these studies (typically based on RCTs) to observational data from actual clinical practice. Selective Cox-2 inhibitors (coxibs) were used as an example. METHODS AND FINDINGS The UK General Practice Research Database (GPRD) was used to estimate the exposure characteristics and individual probabilities of upper gastrointestinal (GI) events during current exposure to nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) or coxibs. A basic cost-effectiveness model was developed evaluating two alternative strategies: prescription of a conventional NSAID or coxib. Outcomes included upper GI events as recorded in GPRD and hospitalisation for upper GI events recorded in the national registry of hospitalisations (Hospital Episode Statistics) linked to GPRD. Prescription costs were based on the prescribed number of tables as recorded in GPRD and the 2006 cost data from the British National Formulary. The study population included over 1 million patients prescribed conventional NSAIDs or coxibs. Only a minority of patients used the drugs long-term and daily (34.5% of conventional NSAIDs and 44.2% of coxibs), whereas coxib RCTs required daily use for at least 6-9 months. The mean cost of preventing one upper GI event as recorded in GPRD was US$104k (ranging from US$64k with long-term daily use to US$182k with intermittent use) and US$298k for hospitalizations. The mean costs (for GPRD events) over calendar time were US$58k during 1990-1993 and US$174k during 2002-2005. Using RCT data rather than GPRD data for event probabilities, the mean cost was US$16k with the VIGOR RCT and US$20k with the CLASS RCT. CONCLUSIONS The published cost-effectiveness analyses of coxibs lacked external validity, did not represent patients in actual clinical practice, and should not have been used to inform prescribing policies. External validity should be an explicit requirement for cost-effectiveness analyses.
In systematic reviews and meta-analysis, researchers often pool the results of the sample mean and standard deviation from a set of similar clinical trials. A number of the trials, however, reported the study using the median, the minimum and maximum values, and/or the first and third quartiles. Hence, in order to combine results, one may have to estimate the sample mean and standard deviation for such trials. In this paper, we propose to improve the existing literature in several directions. First, we show that the sample standard deviation estimation in Hozo et al. (2005) has some serious limitations and is always less satisfactory in practice. Inspired by this, we propose a new estimation method by incorporating the sample size. Second, we systematically study the sample mean and standard deviation estimation problem under more general settings where the first and third quartiles are also available for the trials. Through simulation studies, we demonstrate that the proposed methods greatly improve the existing methods and enrich the literature. We conclude our work with a summary table that serves as a comprehensive guidance for performing meta-analysis in different situations.
Although interest in clinical guidelines has never been greater, uncertainty persists about whether they are effective. The debate has been hampered by the lack of a rigorous overview. We have identified 59 published evaluations of clinical guidelines that met defined criteria for scientific rigour; 24 investigated guidelines for specific clinical conditions, 27 studied preventive care, and 8 looked at guidelines for prescribing or for support services. All but 4 of these studies detected significant improvements in the process of care after the introduction of guidelines and all but 2 of the 11 studies that assessed the outcome of care reported significant improvements. We conclude that explicit guidelines do improve clinical practice, when introduced in the context of rigorous evaluations. However, the size of the improvements in performance varied considerably.
BACKGROUND In the year 2000, the organizational structure of the ICU in the Zaandam Medical Centre (ZMC) changed from an open to a closed format ICU. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of this organizational change on outcome in high risk surgical patients. METHODS The medical records of all consecutive high risk surgical patients admitted to the ICU from 1996 to 1998 (open format) and from 2003 to 2005 (closed format), were reviewed. High-risk patients were defined according to the Identification of Risk in Surgical patients (IRIS) score. Parameters studied were: mortality, morbidity, ICU length of stay (LOS) and hospital LOS. RESULTS Mortality of ICU patients was 25.7% in the open format group and 15.8% in the closed format group (p = 0.01). Morbidity decreased from 48.6% to 46.1% (p = 0.6). The average length of hospital stay was 17 days in the open format group, and 21 days in the closed format group (p = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS High risk surgical patients in the ICU are patients that have undergone complex and often extensive surgery. These patients are in need of specialized treatment and careful monitoring for maximum safety and optimal care. Our results suggest that closed format is a more favourable setting than open format to minimize the effects of high risk surgery, and to warrant safe outcome in this patient group.
BACKGROUND Few data exist about the implementation of contemporary oral antiplatelet treatment guidelines in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). METHODS GReek AntiPlatelet rEgistry (GRAPE), initiated on January 2012, is a prospective, observational, multicenter cohort study focusing on contemporary use of P2Y12 inhibitors. In 1434 patients we evaluated appropriateness of P2Y12 selection initially and at discharge by applying an eligibility-assessing algorithm based on P2Y12 inhibitors' contraindications/specific warnings and precautions. RESULTS Appropriate, less preferable and inappropriate P2Y12 inhibitor selections were made initially in 45.8%, 47.2% and 6.6% and at discharge in 64.1%, 29.2% and 6.6% of patients, respectively. The selection of clopidogrel was most commonly less preferable, both initially (69.7%) and at discharge (75.6%). Appropriate selection of newer agents was high initially (79.2%-82.8%), with further increase as selection at discharge (89.4%-89.8%). Inappropriate selection of the newer agents was 17.2%-20.8% initially, decreasing to 10.2%-10.6% at discharge. Conditions and co-medications related to increased bleeding risk, presentation with ST elevation myocardial infarction and the absence of reperfusion within the first 24h were the most powerful predictors of appropriate P2Y12 selection initially, whereas age ≥75 years, conditions and co-medications related to increased bleeding risk and regional trends mostly affected appropriate P2Y12 selection at discharge. CONCLUSIONS In GRAPE, adherence with the recently released guidelines on oral antiplatelet therapy was satisfactory. Clopidogrel was most commonly used as a less preferable selection, while prasugrel or ticagrelor selection was mostly appropriate. Certain factors may predict initial and at discharge guideline implementation. Clinical Trial Registration-clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01774955 http://clinicaltrials.gov/.
We study recently developed nonparametric methods for estimating the number of missing studies that might exist in a meta-analysis and the effect that these studies might have had on its outcome. These are simple rank-based data augmentation techniques, which formalize the use of funnel plots. We show that they provide effective and relatively powerful tests for evaluating the existence of such publication bias. After adjusting for missing studies, we find that the point estimate of the overall effect size is approximately correct and coverage of the effect size confidence intervals is substantially improved, in many cases recovering the nominal confidence levels entirely. We illustrate the trim and fill method on existing meta-analyses of studies in clinical trials and psychometrics.
OBJECTIVES The original objective was to determine whether the use of bilevel positive airway pressure (BiPAP) ventilation would reduce the need for endotracheal intubation, the length of hospital stay, and hospital charges in patients with status asthmaticus. The development of physician treatment bias made patient enrollment difficult. The article subsequently describes the use of Bayesian statistics to explain study results when this bias occurs. METHODS This study was a prospective, randomized controlled clinical trial conducted over a 34.5-month period at an urban university hospital with an emergency department census of 94,000 annual visits. Patients remaining in status asthmaticus after initial standard treatment with inhaled beta-agonists and steroids were randomized to receive BiPAP ventilation plus standard treatment versus standard treatment alone (non-BiPAP), with intubation for either group as needed. Patients with concurrent cardiac or other pulmonary diseases were excluded. The primary outcome measures were endotracheal intubation rate and length of hospital stay. Secondary outcome measures included vital signs (respiratory rate, pulse rate, blood pressure), changes in expiratory peak flow, changes in pulse oximetry values, and hospital charges. Data were analyzed using Fisher's exact test, Mann-Whitney tests, and Bayesian statistics. For patients enrolled in the study more than once, data analysis was performed on the first enrollment only. RESULTS Nineteen patients were enrolled in the BiPAP group and 16 patients in the non-BiPAP group. Patients were frequently enrolled more than once and the data from the subsequent enrollments were excluded from the analysis. A marked decrease in enrollment, due to physician treatment bias, led to a premature termination of the study. Demographics showed that the groups were similar in age, sex, initial peak flow rate, and arterial blood gas measurements. There was a 7.3% increase (95% CI = -22 to +45) in the intubation rate in the non-BiPAP group (n = 2) compared with that for the BiPAP group (n = 1). No significant difference was seen in length of hospital stay or hospital charges, although there was a favorable trend toward the BiPAP group. Complications encountered in the BiPAP group included one patient with discomfort associated with the nasal BiPAP mask. Bayesian analysis demonstrated that in order for the collected data to be convincing at the 95% confidence level, the prior conviction among treating physicians that BiPAP was a successful treatment modality would have had to be 98.9%. CONCLUSIONS In this study, BiPAP appeared to have no deleterious effects in patients with status asthmaticus, with a trend toward decreased endotracheal intubation rate, decreased length of hospital stay, and decreased hospital charges. Although further study with more patients is needed to determine the clinical and statistical significance of this intervention, ethical concerns regarding withholding BiPAP treatment from the patients in the control group forced a premature termination of the study in the authors' institution.
BACKGROUND Molecularly targeted agents have been reported to have anti-tumour activity for patients whose tumours harbour the matching molecular alteration. These results have led to increased off-label use of molecularly targeted agents on the basis of identified molecular alterations. We assessed the efficacy of several molecularly targeted agents marketed in France, which were chosen on the basis of tumour molecular profiling but used outside their indications, in patients with advanced cancer for whom standard-of-care therapy had failed. METHODS The open-label, randomised, controlled phase 2 SHIVA trial was done at eight French academic centres. We included adult patients with any kind of metastatic solid tumour refractory to standard of care, provided they had an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 0 or 1, disease that was accessible for a biopsy or resection of a metastatic site, and at least one measurable lesion. The molecular profile of each patient's tumour was established with a mandatory biopsy of a metastatic tumour and large-scale genomic testing. We only included patients for whom a molecular alteration was identified within one of three molecular pathways (hormone receptor, PI3K/AKT/mTOR, RAF/MEK), which could be matched to one of ten regimens including 11 available molecularly targeted agents (erlotinib, lapatinib plus trastuzumab, sorafenib, imatinib, dasatinib, vemurafenib, everolimus, abiraterone, letrozole, tamoxifen). We randomly assigned these patients (1:1) to receive a matched molecularly targeted agent (experimental group) or treatment at physician's choice (control group) by central block randomisation (blocks of size six). Randomisation was done centrally with a web-based response system and was stratified according to the Royal Marsden Hospital prognostic score (0 or 1 vs 2 or 3) and the altered molecular pathway. Clinicians and patients were not masked to treatment allocation. Treatments in both groups were given in accordance with the approved product information and standard practice protocols at each institution and were continued until evidence of disease progression. The primary endpoint was progression-free survival in the intention-to-treat population, which was not assessed by independent central review. We assessed safety in any patients who received at least one dose of their assigned treatment. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01771458. FINDINGS Between Oct 4, 2012, and July 11, 2014, we screened 741 patients with any tumour type. 293 (40%) patients had at least one molecular alteration matching one of the 10 available regimens. At the time of data cutoff, Jan 20, 2015, 195 (26%) patients had been randomly assigned, with 99 in the experimental group and 96 in the control group. All patients in the experimental group started treatment, as did 92 in the control group. Two patients in the control group received a molecularly targeted agent: both were included in their assigned group for efficacy analyses, the patient who received an agent that was allowed in the experimental group was included in the experimental group for the purposes of safety analyses, while the other patient, who received a molecularly targeted agent and chemotherapy, was kept in the control group for safety analyses. Median follow-up was 11·3 months (IQR 5·8-11·6) in the experimental group and 11·3 months (8·1-11·6) in the control group at the time of the primary analysis of progression-free survival. Median progression-free survival was 2·3 months (95% CI 1·7-3·8) in the experimental group versus 2·0 months (1·8-2·1) in the control group (hazard ratio 0·88, 95% CI 0·65-1·19, p=0·41). In the safety population, 43 (43%) of 100 patients treated with a molecularly targeted agent and 32 (35%) of 91 patients treated with cytotoxic chemotherapy had grade 3-4 adverse events (p=0·30). INTERPRETATION The use of molecularly targeted agents outside their indications does not improve progression-free survival compared with treatment at physician's choice in heavily pretreated patients with cancer. Off-label use of molecularly targeted agents should be discouraged, but enrolment in clinical trials should be encouraged to assess predictive biomarkers of efficacy.
Systematic literature reviews are widely used as an aid to evidence based decision making. For example, reviews of randomised controlled trials are regularly used to answer questions about the effectiveness of healthcare interventions. The high profile of systematic reviews as a cornerstone of evidence based medicine, however, has led to several misconceptions about their purpose and methods. Among these is the belief that systematic reviews are applicable only to randomised controlled trials and that they are incapable of dealing with other forms of evidence, such as from non-randomised studies or qualitative research. The systematic literature review is a method of locating, appraising, and synthesising evidence. The value of regularly updated systematic reviews in the assessment of effectiveness of healthcare interventions was dramatically illustrated by Antman and colleagues, who showed that review articles failed to mention advances in treatment identified by an updated systematic review.1  It is nearly a quarter of a century since Gene Glass coined the term “meta-analysis” to refer to the quantitative synthesis of the results of primary studies.2 The importance of making explicit efforts to limit bias in the review of literature, however, has been emphasised by social scientists at least since the 1960s.3 In recent years systematic reviews have found an important role in health services research, and the growing interest in evidence based approaches to decision making makes it likely that their use will increase. Not everybody accepts that systematic reviews are necessary or desirable, and as one moves further away from the clinical applications of systematic reviews cynicism about their utility grows. Several arguments are commonly used to reject a wider role for systematic reviews, and these arguments are often based on major misconceptions about the history, purpose, methods, and uses of systematic reviews. I have examined eight common myths about …
CONTEXT Observational studies suggest that surgically induced loss of weight may be effective therapy for type 2 diabetes. OBJECTIVE To determine if surgically induced weight loss results in better glycemic control and less need for diabetes medications than conventional approaches to weight loss and diabetes control. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Unblinded randomized controlled trial conducted from December 2002 through December 2006 at the University Obesity Research Center in Australia, with general community recruitment to established treatment programs. Participants were 60 obese patients (BMI >30 and <40) with recently diagnosed (<2 years) type 2 diabetes. INTERVENTIONS Conventional diabetes therapy with a focus on weight loss by lifestyle change vs laparoscopic adjustable gastric banding with conventional diabetes care. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Remission of type 2 diabetes (fasting glucose level <126 mg/dL [7.0 mmol/L] and glycated hemoglobin [HbA1c] value <6.2% while taking no glycemic therapy). Secondary measures included weight and components of the metabolic syndrome. Analysis was by intention-to-treat. RESULTS Of the 60 patients enrolled, 55 (92%) completed the 2-year follow-up. Remission of type 2 diabetes was achieved by 22 (73%) in the surgical group and 4 (13%) in the conventional-therapy group. Relative risk of remission for the surgical group was 5.5 (95% confidence interval, 2.2-14.0). Surgical and conventional-therapy groups lost a mean (SD) of 20.7% (8.6%) and 1.7% (5.2%) of weight, respectively, at 2 years (P < .001). Remission of type 2 diabetes was related to weight loss (R2 = 0.46, P < .001) and lower baseline HbA1c levels (combined R2 = 0.52, P < .001). There were no serious complications in either group. CONCLUSIONS Participants randomized to surgical therapy were more likely to achieve remission of type 2 diabetes through greater weight loss. These results need to be confirmed in a larger, more diverse population and have long-term efficacy assessed. TRIAL REGISTRATION actr.org Identifier: ACTRN012605000159651.
Abstract In order to develop a program for prevention of unwanted pregnancies, we conducted a survey of contraceptive practices and reasons for contraceptive failures of 1520 women seeking abortion at eight large hospitals in Zheng Zhou City, Henan Province, P.R. China, during the period from March 1996 to May 1996. The most frequent cause of the unplanned pregnancy was contraceptive failure (71.9%); 61.7% (938) of these current pregnancies were potentially predictable by virtue of nonuse of contraception (427) or by recognition of contraceptive failures (511). Among the contraceptive failures, the proportion of condom mishaps was the highest (29.7%), next was IUD failures (23.5%), then rhythm miscalculation (15.9%). Most of abortion seekers (77.1%) used some contraceptive methods previously. But, only 19.7% of them used a contraceptive method at the first sexual intercourse. Among 1520 abortion seekers, 57.6% had used condoms previously; 50.9% of the condom users had at least one instance of condom mishap. The rhythm method had been used by 31.7% of abortion seekers previously; 59.1% of the rhythm users had at least one instance of rhythm failure. Of the 16.8% of abortion seekers who had used pills, 58.0% of them had pill failures. Among condom and pill failures, most of them (46.4% condom users and 56.0% pill users) belonged to the user failure category (poor complicance). Of those seeking abortion, 56.4% had experienced at least one instance of previous abortion; 5.3% had experienced previous abortions at least two times. Emergency contraception had been utilized by only 10 subjects prior to this current pregnancy.