Instruct: Given a scientific claim, retrieve relevant passages that support or refute the claim.
Query: One in five surgical randomized controlled trials are discontinued early.
OBJECTIVE To determine the rate of early discontinuation and non-publication of randomised controlled trials involving patients undergoing surgery. DESIGN Cross sectional observational study of registered and published trials. SETTING Randomised controlled trials of interventions in patients undergoing a surgical procedure. DATA SOURCES The ClinicalTrials.gov database was searched for interventional trials registered between January 2008 and December 2009 using the keyword "surgery". Recruitment status was extracted from the ClinicalTrials.gov database. A systematic search for studies published in peer reviewed journals was performed; if they were not found, results posted on the ClinicalTrials.gov results database were sought. Email queries were sent to trial investigators of discontinued and unpublished completed trials if no reason for the respective status was disclosed. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Trial discontinuation before completion and non-publication after completion. Logistic regression was used to determine the effect of funding source on publication status, with adjustment for intervention type and trial size. RESULTS Of 818 registered trials found using the keyword "surgery", 395 met the inclusion criteria. Of these, 21% (81/395) were discontinued early, most commonly owing to poor recruitment (44%, 36/81). The remaining 314 (79%) trials proceeded to completion, with a publication rate of 66% (208/314) at a median time of 4.9 (interquartile range 4.0-6.0) years from study completion to publication search. A further 6% (20/314) of studies presented results on ClinicalTrials.gov without a corresponding peer reviewed publication. Industry funding did not affect the rate of discontinuation (adjusted odds ratio 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.54 to 1.55) but was associated with a lower odds of publication for completed trials (0.43, 0.26 to 0.72). Investigators' email addresses for trials with an uncertain fate were identified for 71.4% (10/14) of discontinued trials and 83% (101/122) of unpublished studies. Only 43% (6/14) and 20% (25/122) replies were received. Email responses for completed trials indicated 11 trials in press, five published studies (four in non-indexed peer reviewed journals), and nine trials remaining unpublished. CONCLUSIONS One in five surgical randomised controlled trials are discontinued early, one in three completed trials remain unpublished, and investigators of unpublished studies are frequently not contactable. This represents a waste of research resources and raises ethical concerns regarding hidden clinical data and futile participation by patients with its attendant risks. To promote future efficiency and transparency, changes are proposed to research governance frameworks to overcome these concerns.
Randomized trials may be designed and interpreted as single experiments or they may be seen in the context of other similar or relevant evidence. The amount and complexity of available randomized evidence vary for different topics. Systematic reviews may be useful in identifying gaps in the existing randomized evidence, pointing to discrepancies between trials, and planning future trials. A new, promising, but also very much debated extension of systematic reviews, mixed treatment comparison (MTC) meta-analysis, has become increasingly popular recently. MTC meta-analysis may have value in interpreting the available randomized evidence from networks of trials and can rank many different treatments, going beyond focusing on simple pairwise-comparisons. Nevertheless, the evaluation of networks also presents special challenges and caveats. In this article, we review the statistical methodology for MTC meta-analysis. We discuss the concept of inconsistency and methods that have been proposed to evaluate it as well as the methodological gaps that remain. We introduce the concepts of network geometry and asymmetry, and propose metrics for the evaluation of the asymmetry. Finally, we discuss the implications of inconsistency, network geometry and asymmetry in informing the planning of future trials.
Short-term medical service trips (MSTs) aim to address unmet health care needs of low- and middle-income countries. The lack of critically reviewed empirical evidence of activities and outcomes is a concern. Developing evidence-based recommendations for health care delivery requires systematic research review. I focused on MST publications with empirical results. Searches in May 2013 identified 67 studies published since 1993, only 6% of the published articles on the topic in the past 20 years. Nearly 80% reported on surgical trips. Although the MST field is growing, its medical literature lags behind, with nearly all of the scholarly publications lacking significant data collection. By incorporating data collection into service trips, groups can validate practices and provide information about areas needing improvement.
Psychiatrists have long recognised that routine clinical practice needs to be shaped and informed by external evidence (Lewis, 1958). Psychiatric researchers were among the first to utilise multi-centre randomised controlled trials (demonstrating the effectiveness of antipsychotics), and psychologists were among the first in the health field to develop techniques of meta-analysis. Social workers, too, point to their tradition with the publication of one of the earliest controlled trials (Lehrman, 1949).
Objective To determine the availability of data on overall survival and quality of life benefits of cancer drugs approved in Europe. Design Retrospective cohort study. Setting Publicly accessible regulatory and scientific reports on cancer approvals by the European Medicines Agency (EMA) from 2009 to 2013.Main outcome measures Pivotal and postmarketing trials of cancer drugs according to their design features (randomisation, crossover, blinding), comparators, and endpoints. Availability and magnitude of benefit on overall survival or quality of life determined at time of approval and after market entry. Validated European Society for Medical Oncology Magnitude of Clinical Benefit Scale (ESMO-MCBS) used to assess the clinical value of the reported gains in published studies of cancer drugs. Results From 2009 to 2013, the EMA approved the use of 48 cancer drugs for 68 indications. Of these, eight indications (12%) were approved on the basis of a single arm study. At the time of market approval, there was significant prolongation of survival in 24 of the 68 (35%). The magnitude of the benefit on overall survival ranged from 1.0 to 5.8 months (median 2.7 months). At the time of market approval, there was an improvement in quality of life in seven of 68 indications (10%). Out of 44 indications for which there was no evidence of a survival gain at the time of market authorisation, in the subsequent postmarketing period there was evidence for extension of life in three (7%) and reported benefit on quality of life in five (11%). Of the 68 cancer indications with EMA approval, and with a median of 5.4 years' follow-up (minimum 3.3 years, maximum 8.1 years), only 35 (51%) had shown a significant improvement in survival or quality of life, while 33 (49%) remained uncertain. Of 23 indications associated with a survival benefit that could be scored with the ESMO-MCBS tool, the benefit was judged to be clinically meaningful in less than half (11/23, 48%).Conclusions This systematic evaluation of oncology approvals by the EMA in 2009-13 shows that most drugs entered the market without evidence of benefit on survival or quality of life. At a minimum of 3.3 years after market entry, there was still no conclusive evidence that these drugs either extended or improved life for most cancer indications. When there were survival gains over existing treatment options or placebo, they were often marginal.
The Bologna criteria for defining poor ovarian response (POR) during IVF provide a useful template for new research in this field of assisted conception. However, designing studies around the European Society for Human Reproduction and Embryology POR criteria can be methodologically challenging, as the new definition includes various POR subpopulations with diverse baseline characteristics and unknown clinical prognosis. When designing RCTs, potential result bias may be introduced if women from each subpopulation are not evenly allocated between intervention groups. In the case of small or moderate-size RCTs, a single-sequence randomization method may not ensure balanced allocation between groups. Stratified randomization methods provide an alternative methodological approach. Depending on the chosen methodology, patient characteristics and outcomes within each intervention group may be better reported according to relevant subpopulations.
OBJECTIVE Funnel plots (plots of effect estimates against sample size) may be useful to detect bias in meta-analyses that were later contradicted by large trials. We examined whether a simple test of asymmetry of funnel plots predicts discordance of results when meta-analyses are compared to large trials, and we assessed the prevalence of bias in published meta-analyses. DESIGN Medline search to identify pairs consisting of a meta-analysis and a single large trial (concordance of results was assumed if effects were in the same direction and the meta-analytic estimate was within 30% of the trial); analysis of funnel plots from 37 meta-analyses identified from a hand search of four leading general medicine journals 1993-6 and 38 meta-analyses from the second 1996 issue of the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE Degree of funnel plot asymmetry as measured by the intercept from regression of standard normal deviates against precision. RESULTS In the eight pairs of meta-analysis and large trial that were identified (five from cardiovascular medicine, one from diabetic medicine, one from geriatric medicine, one from perinatal medicine) there were four concordant and four discordant pairs. In all cases discordance was due to meta-analyses showing larger effects. Funnel plot asymmetry was present in three out of four discordant pairs but in none of concordant pairs. In 14 (38%) journal meta-analyses and 5 (13%) Cochrane reviews, funnel plot asymmetry indicated that there was bias. CONCLUSIONS A simple analysis of funnel plots provides a useful test for the likely presence of bias in meta-analyses, but as the capacity to detect bias will be limited when meta-analyses are based on a limited number of small trials the results from such analyses should be treated with considerable caution.
BACKGROUND Antiresorptive agents are widely used to treat osteoporosis. We report the results of a multinational randomized, double-blind study, in which postmenopausal women with osteoporosis were treated with alendronate for up to 10 years. METHODS The initial three-year phase of the study compared three daily doses of alendronate with placebo. Women in the original placebo group received alendronate in years 4 and 5 and then were discharged. Women in the original active-treatment groups continued to receive alendronate during the initial extension (years 4 and 5). In two further extensions (years 6 and 7, and 8 through 10), women who had received 5 mg or 10 mg of alendronate daily continued on the same treatment. Women in the discontinuation group received 20 mg of alendronate daily for two years and 5 mg daily in years 3, 4, and 5, followed by five years of placebo. Randomized group assignments and blinding were maintained throughout the 10 years. We report results for the 247 women who participated in all four phases of the study. RESULTS Treatment with 10 mg of alendronate daily for 10 years produced mean increases in bone mineral density of 13.7 percent at the lumbar spine (95 percent confidence interval, 12.0 to 15.5 percent), 10.3 percent at the trochanter (95 percent confidence interval, 8.1 to 12.4 percent), 5.4 percent at the femoral neck (95 percent confidence interval, 3.5 to 7.4 percent), and 6.7 percent at the total proximal femur (95 percent confidence interval, 4.4 to 9.1 percent) as compared with base-line values; smaller gains occurred in the group given 5 mg daily. The discontinuation of alendronate resulted in a gradual loss of effect, as measured by bone density and biochemical markers of bone remodeling. Safety data, including fractures and stature, did not suggest that prolonged treatment resulted in any loss of benefit. CONCLUSIONS The therapeutic effects of alendronate were sustained, and the drug was well tolerated over a 10-year period. The discontinuation of alendronate resulted in the gradual loss of its effects.
BACKGROUND The ketogenic diet has been widely and successfully used to treat children with drug-resistant epilepsy since the 1920s. The aim of this study was to test the efficacy of the ketogenic diet in a randomised controlled trial. METHODS 145 children aged between 2 and 16 years who had at least daily seizures (or more than seven seizures per week), had failed to respond to at least two antiepileptic drugs, and had not been treated previously with the ketogenic diet participated in a randomised controlled trial of its efficacy to control seizures. Enrolment for the trial ran between December, 2001, and July, 2006. Children were seen at one of two hospital centres or a residential centre for young people with epilepsy. Children were randomly assigned to receive a ketogenic diet, either immediately or after a 3-month delay, with no other changes to treatment (control group). Neither the family nor investigators were blinded to the group assignment. Early withdrawals were recorded, and seizure frequency on the diet was assessed after 3 months and compared with that of the controls. The primary endpoint was a reduction in seizures; analysis was intention to treat. Tolerability of the diet was assessed by questionnaire at 3 months. The trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00564915. FINDINGS 73 children were assigned to the ketogenic diet and 72 children to the control group. Data from 103 children were available for analysis: 54 on the ketogenic diet and 49 controls. Of those who did not complete the trial, 16 children did not receive their intervention, 16 did not provide adequate data, and ten withdrew from the treatment before the 3-month review, six because of intolerance. After 3 months, the mean percentage of baseline seizures was significantly lower in the diet group than in the controls (62.0%vs 136.9%, 75% decrease, 95% CI 42.4-107.4%; p<0.0001). 28 children (38%) in the diet group had greater than 50% seizure reduction compared with four (6%) controls (p<0.0001), and five children (7%) in the diet group had greater than 90% seizure reduction compared with no controls (p=0.0582). There was no significant difference in the efficacy of the treatment between symptomatic generalised or symptomatic focal syndromes. The most frequent side-effects reported at 3-month review were constipation, vomiting, lack of energy, and hunger. INTERPRETATION The results from this trial of the ketogenic diet support its use in children with treatment-intractable epilepsy. FUNDING HSA Charitable Trust; Smiths Charity; Scientific Hospital Supplies; Milk Development Council.
Cervix and Breast cancers are the most common cancers among women worldwide and extract a large toll in developing countries. In May 1998, supported by a grant from the NCI (US), the Tata Memorial Hospital, Mumbai, India, started a cluster-randomized, controlled, screening-trial for cervix and breast cancer using trained primary health workers to provide health-education, visual-inspection of cervix (with 4% acetic acid-VIA) and clinical breast examination (CBE) in the screening arm, and only health education in the control arm. Four rounds of screening at 2-year intervals will be followed by 8 years of monitoring for incidence and mortality from cervix and breast cancers. The methodology and interim results after three rounds of screening are presented here. Good randomization was achieved between the screening (n = 75360) and control arms (n = 76178). In the screening arm we see: High screening participation rates; Low attrition; Good compliance to diagnostic confirmation; Significant downstaging; Excellent treatment completion rate; Improving case fatality ratios. The ever-screened and never-screened participants in the screening arm show significant differences with reference to the variables religion, language, age, education, occupation, income and health-seeking behavior for gynecological and breast-related complaints. During the same period, in the control arm we see excellent participation rate for health education; Low attrition and a good number of symptomatic referrals for both cervix and breast.
In systematic reviews and meta-analysis, researchers often pool the results of the sample mean and standard deviation from a set of similar clinical trials. A number of the trials, however, reported the study using the median, the minimum and maximum values, and/or the first and third quartiles. Hence, in order to combine results, one may have to estimate the sample mean and standard deviation for such trials. In this paper, we propose to improve the existing literature in several directions. First, we show that the sample standard deviation estimation in Hozo et al. (2005) has some serious limitations and is always less satisfactory in practice. Inspired by this, we propose a new estimation method by incorporating the sample size. Second, we systematically study the sample mean and standard deviation estimation problem under more general settings where the first and third quartiles are also available for the trials. Through simulation studies, we demonstrate that the proposed methods greatly improve the existing methods and enrich the literature. We conclude our work with a summary table that serves as a comprehensive guidance for performing meta-analysis in different situations.
BACKGROUND Observational studies report reduced colorectal cancer in regular aspirin consumers. Randomised controlled trials have shown reduced risk of adenomas but none have employed prevention of colorectal cancer as a primary endpoint. The CAPP2 trial aimed to investigate the antineoplastic effects of aspirin and a resistant starch in carriers of Lynch syndrome, the major form of hereditary colorectal cancer; we now report long-term follow-up of participants randomly assigned to aspirin or placebo. METHODS In the CAPP2 randomised trial, carriers of Lynch syndrome were randomly assigned in a two-by-two factorial design to 600 mg aspirin or aspirin placebo or 30 g resistant starch or starch placebo, for up to 4 years. Randomisation was in blocks of 16 with provision for optional single-agent randomisation and extended postintervention double-blind follow-up; participants and investigators were masked to treatment allocation. The primary endpoint was development of colorectal cancer. Analysis was by intention to treat and per protocol. This trial is registered, ISRCTN59521990. RESULTS 861 participants were randomly assigned to aspirin or aspirin placebo. At a mean follow-up of 55·7 months, 48 participants had developed 53 primary colorectal cancers (18 of 427 randomly assigned to aspirin, 30 of 434 to aspirin placebo). Intention-to-treat analysis of time to first colorectal cancer showed a hazard ratio (HR) of 0·63 (95% CI 0·35-1·13, p=0·12). Poisson regression taking account of multiple primary events gave an incidence rate ratio (IRR) of 0·56 (95% CI 0·32-0·99, p=0·05). For participants completing 2 years of intervention (258 aspirin, 250 aspirin placebo), per-protocol analysis yielded an HR of 0·41 (0·19-0·86, p=0·02) and an IRR of 0·37 (0·18-0·78, p=0·008). No data for adverse events were available postintervention; during the intervention, adverse events did not differ between aspirin and placebo groups. INTERPRETATION 600 mg aspirin per day for a mean of 25 months substantially reduced cancer incidence after 55·7 months in carriers of hereditary colorectal cancer. Further studies are needed to establish the optimum dose and duration of aspirin treatment. FUNDING European Union; Cancer Research UK; Bayer Corporation; National Starch and Chemical Co; UK Medical Research Council; Newcastle Hospitals trustees; Cancer Council of Victoria Australia; THRIPP South Africa; The Finnish Cancer Foundation; SIAK Switzerland; Bayer Pharma.
BACKGROUND Dealing with heterogeneity in meta-analyses is often tricky, and there is only limited advice for authors on what to do. We investigated how authors addressed different degrees of heterogeneity, in particular whether they used a fixed effect model, which assumes that all the included studies are estimating the same true effect, or a random effects model where this is not assumed. METHODS We sampled randomly 60 Cochrane reviews from 2008, which presented a result in its first meta-analysis with substantial heterogeneity (I2 greater than 50%, i.e. more than 50% of the variation is due to heterogeneity rather than chance). We extracted information on choice of statistical model, how the authors had handled the heterogeneity, and assessed the methodological quality of the reviews in relation to this. RESULTS The distribution of heterogeneity was rather uniform in the whole I2 interval, 50-100%. A fixed effect model was used in 33 reviews (55%), but there was no correlation between I2 and choice of model (P = 0.79). We considered that 20 reviews (33%), 16 of which had used a fixed effect model, had major problems. The most common problems were: use of a fixed effect model and lack of rationale for choice of that model, lack of comment on even severe heterogeneity and of reservations and explanations of its likely causes. The problematic reviews had significantly fewer included trials than other reviews (4.3 vs. 8.0, P = 0.024). The problems became less pronounced with time, as those reviews that were most recently updated more often used a random effects model. CONCLUSION One-third of Cochrane reviews with substantial heterogeneity had major problems in relation to their handling of heterogeneity. More attention is needed to this issue, as the problems we identified can be essential for the conclusions of the reviews.
INTRODUCTION Recurrent miscarriage (RM) is diagnosed when a woman has had three or more miscarriages. Increased levels of distress and anxiety are common during the waiting period of any subsequent pregnancies, posing a significant threat to psychological well-being. However, only limited support and therapy are available for these women, and many are left to cope alone. The Positive Reappraisal Coping Intervention (PRCI) is a novel self-administered supportive technique which has been shown to be effective in patients awaiting the outcome of in vitro fertilisation treatment. The primary objective of this study is to assess the feasibility and effectiveness of the PRCI in improving quality of life in the difficult waiting period which women with previous RM endure before an ongoing pregnancy can be confirmed. METHODS AND ANALYSIS A randomised controlled trial (RCT) feasibility study will establish the viability of conducting a multicentre RCT to definitively test the effects of the PRCI on the psychological well-being of women who have experienced RM during the initial waiting period of a subsequent pregnancy. A second component consists of a qualitative process evaluation exploring the initial experience of pregnancy following repeated miscarriages. Participants (n=50) will be randomised into one of two groups. The PRCI intervention group will receive the PRCI card and weekly questionnaires to assess their psychological well-being during the waiting period of their new pregnancy. The non-intervention group will be asked to complete the same weekly questionnaires. The qualitative process analysis will employ semistructured interviews (n=20) to address relevant aspects of the study objectives. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION Ethics approval has been obtained from the National Research Ethics Service Committee South Central-Hampshire A. Participating centres have given National Health Service R&D approval. Study findings will be disseminated through peer reviewed journals, national and international conferences and lay user groups. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER ISRCTN43571276. This study was registered with the ISRCTN 18/02/2014 following adoption onto the United Kingdom Clinical Research Network (UKCRN) portfolio. Recruitment of the first participant occurred 04/02/2014.
BACKGROUND For women with oestrogen receptor (ER)-positive early breast cancer, treatment with tamoxifen for 5 years substantially reduces the breast cancer mortality rate throughout the first 15 years after diagnosis. We aimed to assess the further effects of continuing tamoxifen to 10 years instead of stopping at 5 years. METHODS In the worldwide Adjuvant Tamoxifen: Longer Against Shorter (ATLAS) trial, 12,894 women with early breast cancer who had completed 5 years of treatment with tamoxifen were randomly allocated to continue tamoxifen to 10 years or stop at 5 years (open control). Allocation (1:1) was by central computer, using minimisation. After entry (between 1996 and 2005), yearly follow-up forms recorded any recurrence, second cancer, hospital admission, or death. We report effects on breast cancer outcomes among the 6846 women with ER-positive disease, and side-effects among all women (with positive, negative, or unknown ER status). Long-term follow-up still continues. This study is registered, number ISRCTN19652633. FINDINGS Among women with ER-positive disease, allocation to continue tamoxifen reduced the risk of breast cancer recurrence (617 recurrences in 3428 women allocated to continue vs 711 in 3418 controls, p=0·002), reduced breast cancer mortality (331 deaths vs 397 deaths, p=0·01), and reduced overall mortality (639 deaths vs 722 deaths, p=0·01). The reductions in adverse breast cancer outcomes appeared to be less extreme before than after year 10 (recurrence rate ratio [RR] 0·90 [95% CI 0·79–1·02] during years 5–9 and 0·75 [0·62–0·90] in later years; breast cancer mortality RR 0·97 [0·79–1·18] during years 5–9 and 0·71 [0·58–0·88] in later years). The cumulative risk of recurrence during years 5–14 was 21·4% for women allocated to continue versus 25·1% for controls; breast cancer mortality during years 5–14 was 12·2% for women allocated to continue versus 15·0% for controls (absolute mortality reduction 2·8%). Treatment allocation seemed to have no effect on breast cancer outcome among 1248 women with ER-negative disease, and an intermediate effect among 4800 women with unknown ER status. Among all 12,894 women, mortality without recurrence from causes other than breast cancer was little affected (691 deaths without recurrence in 6454 women allocated to continue versus 679 deaths in 6440 controls; RR 0·99 [0·89–1·10]; p=0·84). For the incidence (hospitalisation or death) rates of specific diseases, RRs were as follows: pulmonary embolus 1·87 (95% CI 1·13–3·07, p=0·01 [including 0·2% mortality in both treatment groups]), stroke 1·06 (0·83–1·36), ischaemic heart disease 0·76 (0·60–0·95, p=0·02), and endometrial cancer 1·74 (1·30–2·34, p=0·0002). The cumulative risk of endometrial cancer during years 5–14 was 3·1% (mortality 0·4%) for women allocated to continue versus 1·6% (mortality 0·2%) for controls (absolute mortality increase 0·2%). INTERPRETATION For women with ER-positive disease, continuing tamoxifen to 10 years rather than stopping at 5 years produces a further reduction in recurrence and mortality, particularly after year 10. These results, taken together with results from previous trials of 5 years of tamoxifen treatment versus none, suggest that 10 years of tamoxifen treatment can approximately halve breast cancer mortality during the second decade after diagnosis. FUNDING Cancer Research UK, UK Medical Research Council, AstraZeneca UK, US Army, EU-Biomed.
IMPORTANCE The need for surgery for the majority of patients with displaced proximal humeral fractures is unclear, but its use is increasing. OBJECTIVE To evaluate the clinical effectiveness of surgical vs nonsurgical treatment for adults with displaced fractures of the proximal humerus involving the surgical neck. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS A pragmatic, multicenter, parallel-group, randomized clinical trial, the Proximal Fracture of the Humerus Evaluation by Randomization (PROFHER) trial, recruited 250 patients aged 16 years or older (mean age, 66 years [range, 24-92 years]; 192 [77%] were female; and 249 [99.6%] were white) who presented at the orthopedic departments of 32 acute UK National Health Service hospitals between September 2008 and April 2011 within 3 weeks after sustaining a displaced fracture of the proximal humerus involving the surgical neck. Patients were followed up for 2 years (up to April 2013) and 215 had complete follow-up data. The data for 231 patients (114 in surgical group and 117 in nonsurgical group) were included in the primary analysis. INTERVENTIONS Fracture fixation or humeral head replacement were performed by surgeons experienced in these techniques. Nonsurgical treatment was sling immobilization. Standardized outpatient and community-based rehabilitation was provided to both groups. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Primary outcome was the Oxford Shoulder Score (range, 0-48; higher scores indicate better outcomes) assessed during a 2-year period, with assessment and data collection at 6, 12, and 24 months. Sample size was based on a minimal clinically important difference of 5 points for the Oxford Shoulder Score. Secondary outcomes were the Short-Form 12 (SF-12), complications, subsequent therapy, and mortality. RESULTS There was no significant mean treatment group difference in the Oxford Shoulder Score averaged over 2 years (39.07 points for the surgical group vs 38.32 points for the nonsurgical group; difference of 0.75 points [95% CI, -1.33 to 2.84 points]; P = .48) or at individual time points. There were also no significant between-group differences over 2 years in the mean SF-12 physical component score (surgical group: 1.77 points higher [95% CI, -0.84 to 4.39 points]; P = .18); the mean SF-12 mental component score (surgical group: 1.28 points lower [95% CI, -3.80 to 1.23 points]; P = .32); complications related to surgery or shoulder fracture (30 patients in surgical group vs 23 patients in nonsurgical group; P = .28), requiring secondary surgery to the shoulder (11 patients in both groups), and increased or new shoulder-related therapy (7 patients vs 4 patients, respectively; P = .58); and mortality (9 patients vs 5 patients; P = .27). Ten medical complications (2 cardiovascular events, 2 respiratory events, 2 gastrointestinal events, and 4 others) occurred in the surgical group during the postoperative hospital stay. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Among patients with displaced proximal humeral fractures involving the surgical neck, there was no significant difference between surgical treatment compared with nonsurgical treatment in patient-reported clinical outcomes over 2 years following fracture occurrence. These results do not support the trend of increased surgery for patients with displaced fractures of the proximal humerus. TRIAL REGISTRATION isrctn.com Identifier: ISRCTN50850043.
OBJECTIVE To systematically review the evidence that smoking cessation after diagnosis of a primary lung tumour affects prognosis. DESIGN Systematic review with meta-analysis. DATA SOURCES CINAHL (from 1981), Embase (from 1980), Medline (from 1966), Web of Science (from 1966), CENTRAL (from 1977) to December 2008, and reference lists of included studies. STUDY SELECTION Randomised controlled trials or observational longitudinal studies that measured the effect of quitting smoking after diagnosis of lung cancer on prognostic outcomes, regardless of stage at presentation or tumour histology, were included. DATA EXTRACTION Two researchers independently identified studies for inclusion and extracted data. Estimates were combined by using a random effects model, and the I(2) statistic was used to examine heterogeneity. Life tables were used to model five year survival for early stage non-small cell lung cancer and limited stage small cell lung cancer, using death rates for continuing smokers and quitters obtained from this review. RESULTS In 9/10 included studies, most patients studied were diagnosed as having an early stage lung tumour. Continued smoking was associated with a significantly increased risk of all cause mortality (hazard ratio 2.94, 95% confidence interval 1.15 to 7.54) and recurrence (1.86, 1.01 to 3.41) in early stage non-small cell lung cancer and of all cause mortality (1.86, 1.33 to 2.59), development of a second primary tumour (4.31, 1.09 to 16.98), and recurrence (1.26, 1.06 to 1.50) in limited stage small cell lung cancer. No study contained data on the effect of quitting smoking on cancer specific mortality or on development of a second primary tumour in non-small cell lung cancer. Life table modelling on the basis of these data estimated 33% five year survival in 65 year old patients with early stage non-small cell lung cancer who continued to smoke compared with 70% in those who quit smoking. In limited stage small cell lung cancer, an estimated 29% of continuing smokers would survive for five years compared with 63% of quitters on the basis of the data from this review. CONCLUSIONS This review provides preliminary evidence that smoking cessation after diagnosis of early stage lung cancer improves prognostic outcomes. From life table modelling, the estimated number of deaths prevented is larger than would be expected from reduction of cardiorespiratory deaths after smoking cessation, so most of the mortality gain is likely to be due to reduced cancer progression. These findings indicate that offering smoking cessation treatment to patients presenting with early stage lung cancer may be beneficial.
BACKGROUND In the year 2000, the organizational structure of the ICU in the Zaandam Medical Centre (ZMC) changed from an open to a closed format ICU. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of this organizational change on outcome in high risk surgical patients. METHODS The medical records of all consecutive high risk surgical patients admitted to the ICU from 1996 to 1998 (open format) and from 2003 to 2005 (closed format), were reviewed. High-risk patients were defined according to the Identification of Risk in Surgical patients (IRIS) score. Parameters studied were: mortality, morbidity, ICU length of stay (LOS) and hospital LOS. RESULTS Mortality of ICU patients was 25.7% in the open format group and 15.8% in the closed format group (p = 0.01). Morbidity decreased from 48.6% to 46.1% (p = 0.6). The average length of hospital stay was 17 days in the open format group, and 21 days in the closed format group (p = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS High risk surgical patients in the ICU are patients that have undergone complex and often extensive surgery. These patients are in need of specialized treatment and careful monitoring for maximum safety and optimal care. Our results suggest that closed format is a more favourable setting than open format to minimize the effects of high risk surgery, and to warrant safe outcome in this patient group.
Although interest in clinical guidelines has never been greater, uncertainty persists about whether they are effective. The debate has been hampered by the lack of a rigorous overview. We have identified 59 published evaluations of clinical guidelines that met defined criteria for scientific rigour; 24 investigated guidelines for specific clinical conditions, 27 studied preventive care, and 8 looked at guidelines for prescribing or for support services. All but 4 of these studies detected significant improvements in the process of care after the introduction of guidelines and all but 2 of the 11 studies that assessed the outcome of care reported significant improvements. We conclude that explicit guidelines do improve clinical practice, when introduced in the context of rigorous evaluations. However, the size of the improvements in performance varied considerably.
We study recently developed nonparametric methods for estimating the number of missing studies that might exist in a meta-analysis and the effect that these studies might have had on its outcome. These are simple rank-based data augmentation techniques, which formalize the use of funnel plots. We show that they provide effective and relatively powerful tests for evaluating the existence of such publication bias. After adjusting for missing studies, we find that the point estimate of the overall effect size is approximately correct and coverage of the effect size confidence intervals is substantially improved, in many cases recovering the nominal confidence levels entirely. We illustrate the trim and fill method on existing meta-analyses of studies in clinical trials and psychometrics.
OBJECTIVES The original objective was to determine whether the use of bilevel positive airway pressure (BiPAP) ventilation would reduce the need for endotracheal intubation, the length of hospital stay, and hospital charges in patients with status asthmaticus. The development of physician treatment bias made patient enrollment difficult. The article subsequently describes the use of Bayesian statistics to explain study results when this bias occurs. METHODS This study was a prospective, randomized controlled clinical trial conducted over a 34.5-month period at an urban university hospital with an emergency department census of 94,000 annual visits. Patients remaining in status asthmaticus after initial standard treatment with inhaled beta-agonists and steroids were randomized to receive BiPAP ventilation plus standard treatment versus standard treatment alone (non-BiPAP), with intubation for either group as needed. Patients with concurrent cardiac or other pulmonary diseases were excluded. The primary outcome measures were endotracheal intubation rate and length of hospital stay. Secondary outcome measures included vital signs (respiratory rate, pulse rate, blood pressure), changes in expiratory peak flow, changes in pulse oximetry values, and hospital charges. Data were analyzed using Fisher's exact test, Mann-Whitney tests, and Bayesian statistics. For patients enrolled in the study more than once, data analysis was performed on the first enrollment only. RESULTS Nineteen patients were enrolled in the BiPAP group and 16 patients in the non-BiPAP group. Patients were frequently enrolled more than once and the data from the subsequent enrollments were excluded from the analysis. A marked decrease in enrollment, due to physician treatment bias, led to a premature termination of the study. Demographics showed that the groups were similar in age, sex, initial peak flow rate, and arterial blood gas measurements. There was a 7.3% increase (95% CI = -22 to +45) in the intubation rate in the non-BiPAP group (n = 2) compared with that for the BiPAP group (n = 1). No significant difference was seen in length of hospital stay or hospital charges, although there was a favorable trend toward the BiPAP group. Complications encountered in the BiPAP group included one patient with discomfort associated with the nasal BiPAP mask. Bayesian analysis demonstrated that in order for the collected data to be convincing at the 95% confidence level, the prior conviction among treating physicians that BiPAP was a successful treatment modality would have had to be 98.9%. CONCLUSIONS In this study, BiPAP appeared to have no deleterious effects in patients with status asthmaticus, with a trend toward decreased endotracheal intubation rate, decreased length of hospital stay, and decreased hospital charges. Although further study with more patients is needed to determine the clinical and statistical significance of this intervention, ethical concerns regarding withholding BiPAP treatment from the patients in the control group forced a premature termination of the study in the authors' institution.
BACKGROUND Data on absolute risks of outcomes and patterns of drug use in cost-effectiveness analyses are often based on randomised clinical trials (RCTs). The objective of this study was to evaluate the external validity of published cost-effectiveness studies by comparing the data used in these studies (typically based on RCTs) to observational data from actual clinical practice. Selective Cox-2 inhibitors (coxibs) were used as an example. METHODS AND FINDINGS The UK General Practice Research Database (GPRD) was used to estimate the exposure characteristics and individual probabilities of upper gastrointestinal (GI) events during current exposure to nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) or coxibs. A basic cost-effectiveness model was developed evaluating two alternative strategies: prescription of a conventional NSAID or coxib. Outcomes included upper GI events as recorded in GPRD and hospitalisation for upper GI events recorded in the national registry of hospitalisations (Hospital Episode Statistics) linked to GPRD. Prescription costs were based on the prescribed number of tables as recorded in GPRD and the 2006 cost data from the British National Formulary. The study population included over 1 million patients prescribed conventional NSAIDs or coxibs. Only a minority of patients used the drugs long-term and daily (34.5% of conventional NSAIDs and 44.2% of coxibs), whereas coxib RCTs required daily use for at least 6-9 months. The mean cost of preventing one upper GI event as recorded in GPRD was US$104k (ranging from US$64k with long-term daily use to US$182k with intermittent use) and US$298k for hospitalizations. The mean costs (for GPRD events) over calendar time were US$58k during 1990-1993 and US$174k during 2002-2005. Using RCT data rather than GPRD data for event probabilities, the mean cost was US$16k with the VIGOR RCT and US$20k with the CLASS RCT. CONCLUSIONS The published cost-effectiveness analyses of coxibs lacked external validity, did not represent patients in actual clinical practice, and should not have been used to inform prescribing policies. External validity should be an explicit requirement for cost-effectiveness analyses.
INTRODUCTION Topiramate (TOP) blocks glutamate receptors and facilitates GABA (γ-aminobutyric acid) neurotransmission, effects that may facilitate smoking cessation. We compared the effects of behavioral counseling combined with (a) TOP, (b) TOP/nicotine patch (TOP/NIC), or (c) placebo (PLC) for smoking cessation. METHODS We conducted a 10-week randomized trial in which subjects and research personnel were blinded to TOP versus PLC but not to the TOP/NIC patch condition. In groups receiving TOP, the medication dosage was titrated gradually up to 200 mg/day. The smoking quit date (QD) was scheduled after 2 weeks of medication treatment. NIC (21 mg) was started on the QD in subjects randomized to the TOP/NIC condition. The main outcome measure was the end-of-treatment, 4-week continuous abstinence rate (CAR; biochemically confirmed). RESULTS Fifty-seven subjects were randomized to treatment. The 4-week CAR was 1 of 19 (5%) in the PLC group, 5 of 19 (26%) in the TOP group, and 7 of 19 (37%) in the TOP/NIC group (p = .056). Pairwise comparisons showed a difference between TOP/NIC and PLC (p = .042) and a nonsignificant difference between TOP and PLC (p = .18). The PLC group gained 0.37 lb/week, the TOP group lost 0.41 lb/week, and the TOP/NIC group lost 0.07 lb/week (p = .004). Pairwise comparisons showed a difference between TOP and PLC (p < .001) and between TOP/NIC and PLC groups (p = .035). Paresthesia was more frequent in subjects on TOP than PLC (p = .011). CONCLUSIONS TOP, alone or in combination with the NIC, resulted in a numerically higher quit rate than PLC and decreased weight. A larger, PLC-controlled trial is needed to confirm these findings.
Systematic literature reviews are widely used as an aid to evidence based decision making. For example, reviews of randomised controlled trials are regularly used to answer questions about the effectiveness of healthcare interventions. The high profile of systematic reviews as a cornerstone of evidence based medicine, however, has led to several misconceptions about their purpose and methods. Among these is the belief that systematic reviews are applicable only to randomised controlled trials and that they are incapable of dealing with other forms of evidence, such as from non-randomised studies or qualitative research. The systematic literature review is a method of locating, appraising, and synthesising evidence. The value of regularly updated systematic reviews in the assessment of effectiveness of healthcare interventions was dramatically illustrated by Antman and colleagues, who showed that review articles failed to mention advances in treatment identified by an updated systematic review.1  It is nearly a quarter of a century since Gene Glass coined the term “meta-analysis” to refer to the quantitative synthesis of the results of primary studies.2 The importance of making explicit efforts to limit bias in the review of literature, however, has been emphasised by social scientists at least since the 1960s.3 In recent years systematic reviews have found an important role in health services research, and the growing interest in evidence based approaches to decision making makes it likely that their use will increase. Not everybody accepts that systematic reviews are necessary or desirable, and as one moves further away from the clinical applications of systematic reviews cynicism about their utility grows. Several arguments are commonly used to reject a wider role for systematic reviews, and these arguments are often based on major misconceptions about the history, purpose, methods, and uses of systematic reviews. I have examined eight common myths about …
INTRODUCTION Recent studies in septic patients showed that adverse effects of hydroxyethyl starches (HESs) possibly outweigh their benefits in severely impaired physiological haemostasis. It remains unclear whether this also applies to patient populations that are less vulnerable. In this meta-analysis, we evaluated the impact of various HES generations on safety and efficacy endpoints in patients undergoing cardiac surgery. METHODS We searched the PubMed, Embase and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials databases for randomised controlled trials (RCTs) in the English or German language comparing the use of HES to any other colloid or crystalloid during open heart surgery. RESULTS Blood loss and transfusion requirements were higher for older starches with mean molecular weights more than 200 kDa compared to other volume substitutes. In contrast, this effect was not observed with latest-generation tetrastarches (130/0.4), which performed even better when compared to albumin (blood loss of tetrastarch versus albumin: standardised mean difference (SMD), -0.34; 95% CI, -0.63, -0.05; P = 0.02; versus gelatin: SMD, -0.06; 95% CI, -0.20, 0.08; P = 0.39; versus crystalloids: SMD, -0.05; 95% CI, -0.20, 0.10; P = 0.54). Similar results were found for transfusion needs. Lengths of stay in the intensive care unit or hospital were significantly shorter with tetrastarches compared to gelatin (intensive care unit: SMD, -0.10; 95% CI, -0.15, -0.05; P = 0.0002) and crystalloids (hospital: SMD, -0.52; 95% CI, -0.90, -0.14; P = 0.007). CONCLUSIONS In this meta-analysis of RCTs, we could not identify safety issues with tetrastarches compared with other colloid or crystalloid solutions in terms of blood loss, transfusion requirements or hospital length of stay in patients undergoing cardiac surgery. The safety data on coagulation with older starches raise some issues that need to be addressed in future trials.