Instruct: Given a scientific claim, retrieve relevant documents that support or refute the claim.
Query: Epidemiological disease burden from noncommunicable diseases is more prevalent in high economic settings.
BACKGROUND The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. METHODS We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors-the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). FINDINGS Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6-58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8-42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. INTERPRETATION Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
This paper seeks to establish the strength of association between contemporary tuberculosis (TB) in England and Wales and several potential aetiological factors. It presents an ecological analysis of standardised annual TB mortality rates for the 403 local authority districts between 1982 and 1992, disaggregated by age and sex. Social, demographic and ethnicity measures from the 1981 and 1991 censuses and standardised annual AIDS-related mortality rates for young men are used to calculate Poisson regression models. A strong association was found between all TB mortality groups and overcrowding at the household level. For women, no other measures improved the explanatory power of the models. In multiple regressions, both poverty and AIDS-related mortality explained additional variation in the model for younger men. The link between ethnicity and tuberculosis notifications was not reflected in this analysis of mortality. For all groups no evidence of a positive relationship with ethnicity was found, once overcrowding had been accounted for. The significance of household as opposed to district level crowding suggests that prolonged contact is required for disease transmission. Regression analysis indicates that it is the overcrowding and poverty among ethnic populations that is significant for their tuberculosis mortality. The fact that the relationship between AIDS and TB is confined to the group most typical of AIDS patients provides evidence that AIDS has little influence on the level of tuberculosis mortality in the wider population. Explanations for the observed relationship include preferential certification, migration for treatment and shortcomings in health care provision.
OBJECTIVE To investigate comparative national trends in mortality from conditions amenable to timely, appropriate medical care and from those considered not to be amenable to such care. DESIGN Analysis of trends in direct age standardised mortality from the 1950s to 1987. SETTING Four eastern European nations (Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Poland, the German Democratic Republic) and two western European (the Federal Republic of Germany and England and Wales) and two North American nations (United States and Canada). SUBJECTS The total populations of the relevant countries during the period examined. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Proportional changes over time in age standardised mortality. Mortality from amenable and non-amenable causes was restricted to the age group 0-64. RESULTS A divergence in the trends for all cause mortality between eastern Europe and the western nations occurred in about 1970, when the rates in western countries steadily declined but those in eastern Europe remained fairly static. In the age group 0-64 mortality from causes considered amenable to medical care fell less quickly in eastern Europe than in the West, particularly after 1970. In the same age group, mortality from non-amenable causes rose in eastern European countries from the late 1960s compared with substantial declines in such mortality in the West. CONCLUSIONS Non-amenable causes of death seem to be the principal, but not exclusive, reason for lack of improvement in trends in all cause mortality in eastern Europe from 1970. The agenda for action in eastern Europe should give priority to a healthier lifestyle and improvement of the environment though not neglect enhancements in the quality and efficiency of direct health services.
BACKGROUND The number of older people is set to increase dramatically worldwide. Demographic changes are likely to result in the rise of age-related chronic diseases which largely contribute to years lived with a disability and future dependence. However dependence is much less studied although intrinsically linked to disability. We investigated the prevalence and correlates of dependence among older people from middle income countries. METHODS A one-phase cross-sectional survey was carried out at 11 sites in seven countries (urban sites in Cuba, Venezuela, and Dominican Republic, urban and rural sites in Peru, Mexico, China and India). All those aged 65 years and over living in geographically defined catchment areas were eligible. In all, 15,022 interviews were completed with an informant interview for each participant. The full 10/66 Dementia Research Group survey protocol was applied, including ascertainment of depression, dementia, physical impairments and self-reported diagnoses. Dependence was interviewer-rated based on a key informant's responses to a set of open-ended questions on the participant's needs for care. We estimated the prevalence of dependence and the independent contribution of underlying health conditions. Site-specific prevalence ratios were meta-analysed, and population attributable prevalence fractions (PAPF) calculated. RESULTS The prevalence of dependence increased with age at all sites, with a tendency for the prevalence to be lower in men than in women. Age-standardised prevalence was lower in all sites than in the USA. Other than in rural China, dementia made the largest independent contribution to dependence, with a median PAPF of 34% (range 23%-59%). Other substantial contributors were limb impairment (9%, 1%-46%), stroke (8%, 2%-17%), and depression (8%, 1%-27%). CONCLUSION The demographic and health transitions will lead to large and rapid increases in the numbers of dependent older people particularly in middle income countries (MIC). The prevention and control of chronic neurological and neuropsychiatric diseases and the development of long-term care policies and plans should be urgent priorities.
OBJECTIVE Chronic physical comorbidity is common in dementia. However, there is an absence of evidence to support good practice guidelines for attention to these problems. We aimed to study the extent of this comorbidity and its impact on cognitive function and disability in population-based studies in low and middle income countries, where chronic diseases and impairments are likely to be both common and undertreated. METHODS A multicentre cross-sectional survey of all over 65 year old residents (n = 15 022) in 11 catchment areas in China, India, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Mexico and Peru. We estimated the prevalence of pain, incontinence, hearing and visual impairments, mobility impairment and undernutrition according to the presence of dementia and its severity, and, among those with dementia, the independent contribution of these impairments to cognitive function and disability, adjusting for age, gender, education and dementia severity. RESULTS Incontinence, hearing impairment, mobility impairment and undernutrition were consistently linearly associated with the presence of dementia and its severity across regions. Among people with dementia, incontinence, hearing impairment and mobility impairment were independently associated with disability in all regions while the contributions of pain, visual impairment and undernutrition were inconsistent. Only hearing impairment made a notable independent contribution to cognitive impairment. CONCLUSIONS There is an urgent need for clinical trials of the feasibility, efficacy and cost-effectiveness of regular physical health checks and remediation of identified pathologies, given the considerable comorbidity identified in our population based studies, and the strong evidence for independent impact upon functioning.
COPD continues to cause a heavy health and economic burden both in the United States and around the world. Some of the risk factors for COPD are well-known and include smoking, occupational exposures, air pollution, airway hyperresponsiveness, asthma, and certain genetic variations, although many questions, such as why < 20% of smokers develop significant airway obstruction, remain. Precise definitions of COPD vary and are frequently dependent on an accurate diagnosis of the problem by a physician. These differences in the definition of COPD can have large effects on the estimates of COPD in the population. Furthermore, evidence that COPD represents several different disease processes with potentially different interventions continues to emerge. In most of the world, COPD prevalence and mortality are still increasing and likely will continue to rise in response to increases in smoking, particularly by women and adolescents. Resources aimed at smoking cessation and prevention, COPD education and early detection, and better treatment will be of the most benefit in our continuing efforts against this important cause of morbidity and mortality.
The documented history of malaria in parts of Asia goes back more than 2,000 years, during which the disease has been a major player on the socioeconomic stage in many nation states as they waxed and waned in power and prosperity. On a much shorter time scale, the last half century has seen in microcosm a history of large fluctuations in endemicity and impact of malaria across the spectrum of rice fields and rain forests, mountains and plains that reflect the vast ecological diversity inhabited by this majority aggregation of mankind. That period has seen some of the most dramatic changes in social and economic structure, in population size, density and mobility, and in political structure in history: all have played a part in the changing face of malaria in this extensive region of the world. While the majority of global malaria cases currently reside in Africa, greater numbers inhabited Asia earlier this century before malaria programs savored significant success, and now Asia harbors a global threat in the form of the epicenter of multidrug resistant Plasmodium falciparum which is gradually encompassing the tropical world. The latter reflects directly the vicissitudes of economic change over recent decades, particularly the mobility of populations in search of commerce, trade and personal fortunes, or caught in the misfortunes of physical conflicts. The period from the 1950s to the 1990s has witnessed near "eradication" followed by resurgence of malaria in Sri Lanka, control and resurgence in India, the influence of war and postwar instability on drug resistance in Cambodia, increase in severe and cerebral malaria in Myanmar during prolonged political turmoil, the essential disappearance of the disease from all but forested border areas of Thailand where it remains for the moment intractable, the basic elimination of vivax malaria from many provinces of central China. Both positive and negative experiences have lessons to teach in the debate between eradication and control as alternative strategies. China has for years held high the goal of "basic elimination", eradication by another name, in sensible semi-defiance of WHO dictates. The Chinese experience makes it clear that, given community organization, exhaustive attention to case detection, management and focus elimination, plus the political will at all levels of society, it is possible both to eliminate malaria from large areas of an expansive nation and to implement surveillance necessary to maintain something approaching eradication status in those areas. But China has not succeeded in the international border regions of the tropical south where unfettered population movement confounds the program. Thailand, Malaysia and to an extent Vietnam have also reached essential elimination in their rice field plains by vigorous vertical programs but fall short at their forested borders. Economics is central to the history of the rise and fall of nations, and to the history of disease in the people who constitute nations. The current love affair with free market economics as the main driving force for advance of national wealth puts severe limitations on the essential involvement of communities in malaria management. The task of malaria control or elimination needs to be clearly related to the basic macroeconomic process that preoccupies governments, not cloistered away in the health sector Historically malaria has had a severe, measurable, negative impact on the productivity of nations. Economic models need rehoning with political aplomb and integrating with technical and demographic strategies. Recent decades in Chinese malaria history carry some lessons that may be relevant in this context.
In this paper we review the associations between maternal and child undernutrition with human capital and risk of adult diseases in low-income and middle-income countries. We analysed data from five long-standing prospective cohort studies from Brazil, Guatemala, India, the Philippines, and South Africa and noted that indices of maternal and child undernutrition (maternal height, birthweight, intrauterine growth restriction, and weight, height, and body-mass index at 2 years according to the new WHO growth standards) were related to adult outcomes (height, schooling, income or assets, offspring birthweight, body-mass index, glucose concentrations, blood pressure). We undertook systematic reviews of studies from low-income and middle-income countries for these outcomes and for indicators related to blood lipids, cardiovascular disease, lung and immune function, cancers, osteoporosis, and mental illness. Undernutrition was strongly associated, both in the review of published work and in new analyses, with shorter adult height, less schooling, reduced economic productivity, and--for women--lower offspring birthweight. Associations with adult disease indicators were not so clear-cut. Increased size at birth and in childhood were positively associated with adult body-mass index and to a lesser extent with blood pressure values, but not with blood glucose concentrations. In our new analyses and in published work, lower birthweight and undernutrition in childhood were risk factors for high glucose concentrations, blood pressure, and harmful lipid profiles once adult body-mass index and height were adjusted for, suggesting that rapid postnatal weight gain--especially after infancy--is linked to these conditions. The review of published works indicates that there is insufficient information about long-term changes in immune function, blood lipids, or osteoporosis indicators. Birthweight is positively associated with lung function and with the incidence of some cancers, and undernutrition could be associated with mental illness. We noted that height-for-age at 2 years was the best predictor of human capital and that undernutrition is associated with lower human capital. We conclude that damage suffered in early life leads to permanent impairment, and might also affect future generations. Its prevention will probably bring about important health, educational, and economic benefits. Chronic diseases are especially common in undernourished children who experience rapid weight gain after infancy.
Coronary heart disease rates have been reported in several parts of the world to be unusually high in people originating from the Indian subcontinent. High coronary disease rates appear to be common to South Asian groups of different geographical origin, religion, and language. This presents a challenge to the understanding of coronary heart disease: the high rates in South Asians are not explained on the basis of elevated serum cholesterol, smoking or hypertension. Low plasma HDL cholesterol, high plasma triglyceride levels and high prevalence of non-insulin-dependent diabetes have been consistently found in South Asians overseas: this probably reflects an underlying state of insulin resistance. Further studies are needed to determine whether this metabolic disturbance can account for the high rates of coronary heart disease in South Asians, and to identify possibilities for prevention.
Over the past two decades there have been significant achievements in the control of a handful of important human tropical infections [1]. These achievements include the substantive reductions in the prevalence and incidence of the so-called neglected diseases such as lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, guinea worm, leprosy, and trachoma (Box 1) [2]. Each of these neglected diseases is a poverty-promoting and often stigmatizing condition occurring primarily in rural areas of low-income countries (Box 2) [3]. They are ancient afflictions, described in the Bible and other ancient texts, which have burdened humanity for millennia [3]. But now, as a result of aggressive regional vertical interventions, there is a possibility that some neglected tropical infections could be eventually controlled to the point of elimination in some areas of endemicity [2–8]. In the case of guinea worm infection, disease eradication might also soon be possible [9]. Box 2. Common Features of the Neglected Tropical Diseases          Ancient afflictions that have burdened humanity for centuries      Poverty-promoting conditions      Associated with stigma      Rural areas of low-income countries and fragile states      No commercial markets for products that target these diseases      Interventions, when applied, have a history of success
Many countries use the cost-effectiveness thresholds recommended by the World Health Organization's Choosing Interventions that are Cost-Effective project (WHO-CHOICE) when evaluating health interventions. This project sets the threshold for cost-effectiveness as the cost of the intervention per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted less than three times the country's annual gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. Highly cost-effective interventions are defined as meeting a threshold per DALY averted of once the annual GDP per capita. We argue that reliance on these thresholds reduces the value of cost-effectiveness analyses and makes such analyses too blunt to be useful for most decision-making in the field of public health. Use of these thresholds has little theoretical justification, skirts the difficult but necessary ranking of the relative values of locally-applicable interventions and omits any consideration of what is truly affordable. The WHO-CHOICE thresholds set such a low bar for cost-effectiveness that very few interventions with evidence of efficacy can be ruled out. The thresholds have little value in assessing the trade-offs that decision-makers must confront. We present alternative approaches for applying cost-effectiveness criteria to choices in the allocation of health-care resources.
BACKGROUND Although cigarette smoking, excessive alcohol drinking, obesity, and several other well-studied unhealthy lifestyle-related factors each have been linked to the risk of multiple chronic diseases and premature death, little is known about the combined impact on mortality outcomes, in particular among Chinese and other non-Western populations. The objective of this study was to quantify the overall impact of lifestyle-related factors beyond that of active cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption on all-cause and cause-specific mortality in Chinese women. METHODS AND FINDINGS We used data from the Shanghai Women's Health Study, an ongoing population-based prospective cohort study in China. Participants included 71,243 women aged 40 to 70 years enrolled during 1996-2000 who never smoked or drank alcohol regularly. A healthy lifestyle score was created on the basis of five lifestyle-related factors shown to be independently associated with mortality outcomes (normal weight, lower waist-hip ratio, daily exercise, never exposed to spouse's smoking, higher daily fruit and vegetable intake). The score ranged from zero (least healthy) to five (most healthy) points. During an average follow-up of 9 years, 2,860 deaths occurred, including 775 from cardiovascular disease (CVD) and 1,351 from cancer. Adjusted hazard ratios for mortality decreased progressively with an increasing number of healthy lifestyle factors. Compared to women with a score of zero, hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for women with four to five factors were 0.57 (0.44-0.74) for total mortality, 0.29 (0.16-0.54) for CVD mortality, and 0.76 (0.54-1.06) for cancer mortality. The inverse association between the healthy lifestyle score and mortality was seen consistently regardless of chronic disease status at baseline. The population attributable risks for not having 4-5 healthy lifestyle factors were 33% for total deaths, 59% for CVD deaths, and 19% for cancer deaths. CONCLUSIONS In this first study, to our knowledge, to quantify the combined impact of lifestyle-related factors on mortality outcomes in Chinese women, a healthier lifestyle pattern-including being of normal weight, lower central adiposity, participation in physical activity, nonexposure to spousal smoking, and higher fruit and vegetable intake-was associated with reductions in total and cause-specific mortality among lifetime nonsmoking and nondrinking women, supporting the importance of overall lifestyle modification in disease prevention. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.
This article provides a status report on the global burden of cancer worldwide using the GLOBOCAN 2018 estimates of cancer incidence and mortality produced by the International Agency for Research on Cancer, with a focus on geographic variability across 20 world regions. There will be an estimated 18.1 million new cancer cases (17.0 million excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and 9.6 million cancer deaths (9.5 million excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) in 2018. In both sexes combined, lung cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer (11.6% of the total cases) and the leading cause of cancer death (18.4% of the total cancer deaths), closely followed by female breast cancer (11.6%), prostate cancer (7.1%), and colorectal cancer (6.1%) for incidence and colorectal cancer (9.2%), stomach cancer (8.2%), and liver cancer (8.2%) for mortality. Lung cancer is the most frequent cancer and the leading cause of cancer death among males, followed by prostate and colorectal cancer (for incidence) and liver and stomach cancer (for mortality). Among females, breast cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer and the leading cause of cancer death, followed by colorectal and lung cancer (for incidence), and vice versa (for mortality); cervical cancer ranks fourth for both incidence and mortality. The most frequently diagnosed cancer and the leading cause of cancer death, however, substantially vary across countries and within each country depending on the degree of economic development and associated social and life style factors. It is noteworthy that high-quality cancer registry data, the basis for planning and implementing evidence-based cancer control programs, are not available in most low- and middle-income countries. The Global Initiative for Cancer Registry Development is an international partnership that supports better estimation, as well as the collection and use of local data, to prioritize and evaluate national cancer control efforts. CA: A Cancer Journal for Clinicians 2018;0:1-31. © 2018 American Cancer Society.
Despite combination antiretroviral therapy (ART), HIV infected people have higher mortality than non-infected. Lower socioeconomic status (SES) predicts higher mortality in many chronic illnesses but data in people with HIV is limited. We evaluated 878 HIV infected individuals followed from 1995 to 2005. Cox proportional hazards for all-cause mortality were estimated for SES measures and other factors. Mixed effects analyses examined how SES impacts factors predicting death. The 200 who died were older, had lower CD4 counts, and higher viral loads (VL). Age, transmission category, education, albumin, CD4 counts, VL, hunger, and poverty predicted death in univariate analyses; age, CD4 counts, albumin, VL, and poverty in the multivariable model. Mixed models showed associations between (1) CD4 counts with education and hunger; (2) albumin with education, homelessness, and poverty; and (3) VL with education and hunger. SES contributes to mortality in HIV infected persons directly and indirectly, and should be a target of health policy in this population.
BACKGROUND Glaucoma is the World's leading cause of irreversible blindness, and poses serious public health and economic concerns. DESIGN   Review. SAMPLES Published randomized trials and population-based studies since 1985. METHODS We report the economic impact of primary open-angle glaucoma and model the effect of changes in detection rates and management strategies. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES The cost-effectiveness of different interventions to prevent vision loss from primary open-angle glaucoma was measured in terms of financial cost (Australian dollars) and disability-adjusted life years. RESULTS The prevalence of glaucoma in Australia is expected to increase from 208 000 in 2005 to 379 000 in 2025 because of the aging population. Health system costs over the same time period are estimated to increase from $AU355 million to $AU784 million. Total costs (health system costs, indirect costs and costs of loss of well-being) will increase from $AU1.9 billion to $AU4.3 billion in Australia. CONCLUSION Primary open-angle glaucoma poses a significant economic burden, which will increase substantially by 2025. This dynamic model provides a valuable tool for ongoing policy formulation and determining the economic impact of interventions to better prevent visual impairment and blindness from glaucoma.
The aim of this paper is to review the clinical epidemiology of heart failure. The last paper comprehensively addressing the epidemiology of heart failure in Heart appeared in 2000. Despite an increase in manuscripts describing epidemiological aspects of heart failure since the 1990s, additional information is still needed, as indicated by various editorials.
Metabolic syndrome is diagnosed when three or more of the following criteria are met: abdominal obesity (waist circumference more than 102 cm in men and 88 cm in women); hypertriglyceridemia of 150 mg/dl or above; a high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol level less than 40 mg/dl in men or 50 mg/dl in women; blood pressure of 130/85 mm Hg or higher; or fasting glucose of at least 110 mg/dl. Individuals with metabolic syndrome are likelier than others to develop diabetes and cardiovascular disease and have increased mortality from all causes (and from cardiovascular disease in particular). The investigators attempted to determine the prevalence of the syndrome in the United States by analyzing data on 8814 men and women 20 years of age or older who took part in the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey in the years 1988 to 1994. This is a cross-sectional health survey of a sample of the noninstitutionalized civilian American population. The overall age-adjusted prevalence of metabolic syndrome was 23.7%. The prevalence rose from 6.7% in persons 20 to 29 years of age to 42% in those aged 70 years and more. There was virtually no gender-related difference in prevalence rates for the combined racial groups. Metabolic syndrome was most prevalent in Mexican Americans and least prevalent in whites, African Americans, and "others. " Among both African Americans and Mexican Americans, women had higher prevalence rates than men. Extrapolating from age-specific prevalence rates and US census counts from the year 2000, 47 million US residents have metabolic syndrome. Considering its prevalence, it seems important to estimate the direct medical costs of metabolic syndrome. In the great majority of cases the critical causes are improper nutrition and insufficient physical activity, emphasizing the importance of controlling obesity and encouraging physical activity in the United States.
INTRODUCTION The aim of this study was to examine health-related quality of life (HRQoL) as measured by EQ-5D and to investigate the influence of chronic conditions and other risk factors on HRQoL based on a distributed sample located in Shaanxi Province, China. METHODS A multi-stage stratified cluster sampling method was performed to select subjects. EQ-5D was employed to measure the HRQoL. The likelihood that individuals with selected chronic diseases would report any problem in the EQ-5D dimensions was calculated and tested relative to that of each of the two reference groups. Multivariable linear regression models were used to investigate factors associated with EQ VAS. RESULTS The most frequently reported problems involved pain/discomfort (8.8%) and anxiety/depression (7.6%). Nearly half of the respondents who reported problems in any of the five dimensions were chronic patients. Higher EQ VAS scores were associated with the male gender, higher level of education, employment, younger age, an urban area of residence, access to free medical service and higher levels of physical activity. Except for anemia, all the selected chronic diseases were indicative of a negative EQ VAS score. The three leading risk factors were cerebrovascular disease, cancer and mental disease. Increases in age, number of chronic conditions and frequency of physical activity were found to have a gradient effect. CONCLUSION The results of the present work add to the volume of knowledge regarding population health status in this area, apart from the known health status using mortality and morbidity data. Medical, policy, social and individual attention should be given to the management of chronic diseases and improvement of HRQoL. Longitudinal studies must be performed to monitor changes in HRQoL and to permit evaluation of the outcomes of chronic disease intervention programs.
Over 75% of the annual estimated 9.5 million deaths in India occur in the home, and the large majority of these do not have a certified cause. India and other developing countries urgently need reliable quantification of the causes of death. They also need better epidemiological evidence about the relevance of physical (such as blood pressure and obesity), behavioral (such as smoking, alcohol, HIV-1 risk taking, and immunization history), and biological (such as blood lipids and gene polymorphisms) measurements to the development of disease in individuals or disease rates in populations. This report here is on the rationale, design, and implementation of the worldâ€™s largest prospective study of the causes and correlates of mortality. Nearly 14 million people in 2.4 million nationally representative Indian households will be monitored (for vital status and, if dead, the causes of death through a well-validated verbal autopsy (VA) instrument. be addressed. This study will reliably document not only the underlying cause of child and adult deaths but also key risk factors (behavioral, physical, environmental, and eventually, genetic). It offers a globally replicable model for reliably estimating cause-specific mortality using VA and strengthens Indiaâ€™s flagship mortality monitoring system. Despite the misclassification that is still expected, the new cause-of-death data will be substantially better than that available previously.[PLoS Medicine, February 2006.]
BACKGROUND Dengue is the most common arbovirus infection globally, but its burden is poorly quantified. We estimated dengue mortality, incidence, and burden for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. METHODS We modelled mortality from vital registration, verbal autopsy, and surveillance data using the Cause of Death Ensemble Modelling tool. We modelled incidence from officially reported cases, and adjusted our raw estimates for under-reporting based on published estimates of expansion factors. In total, we had 1780 country-years of mortality data from 130 countries, 1636 country-years of dengue case reports from 76 countries, and expansion factor estimates for 14 countries. FINDINGS We estimated an average of 9221 dengue deaths per year between 1990 and 2013, increasing from a low of 8277 (95% uncertainty estimate 5353-10 649) in 1992, to a peak of 11 302 (6790-13 722) in 2010. This yielded a total of 576 900 (330 000-701 200) years of life lost to premature mortality attributable to dengue in 2013. The incidence of dengue increased greatly between 1990 and 2013, with the number of cases more than doubling every decade, from 8·3 million (3·3 million-17·2 million) apparent cases in 1990, to 58·4 million (23·6 million-121·9 million) apparent cases in 2013. When accounting for disability from moderate and severe acute dengue, and post-dengue chronic fatigue, 566 000 (186 000-1 415 000) years lived with disability were attributable to dengue in 2013. Considering fatal and non-fatal outcomes together, dengue was responsible for 1·14 million (0·73 million-1·98 million) disability-adjusted life-years in 2013. INTERPRETATION Although lower than other estimates, our results offer more evidence that the true symptomatic incidence of dengue probably falls within the commonly cited range of 50 million to 100 million cases per year. Our mortality estimates are lower than those presented elsewhere and should be considered in light of the totality of evidence suggesting that dengue mortality might, in fact, be substantially higher. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
BACKGROUND The Italian National Health Service (NHS) provides universal coverage to all citizens, granting primary and hospital care with a copayment system for outpatient and drug services. Financing of Local Health Trusts (LHTs) is based on a capitation system adjusted only for age, gender and area of residence. We applied a risk-adjustment system (Johns Hopkins Adjusted Clinical Groups System, ACG® System) in order to explain health care costs using routinely collected administrative data in the Veneto Region (North-eastern Italy). METHODS All residents in the Veneto Region were included in the study. The ACG system was applied to classify the regional population based on the following information sources for the year 2015: Hospital Discharges, Emergency Room visits, Chronic disease registry for copayment exemptions, ambulatory visits, medications, the Home care database, and drug prescriptions. Simple linear regressions were used to contrast an age-gender model to models incorporating more comprehensive risk measures aimed at predicting health care costs. RESULTS A simple age-gender model explained only 8% of the variance of 2015 total costs. Adding diagnoses-related variables provided a 23% increase, while pharmacy based variables provided an additional 17% increase in explained variance. The adjusted R-squared of the comprehensive model was 6 times that of the simple age-gender model. CONCLUSIONS ACG System provides substantial improvement in predicting health care costs when compared to simple age-gender adjustments. Aging itself is not the main determinant of the increase of health care costs, which is better explained by the accumulation of chronic conditions and the resulting multimorbidity.
BACKGROUND Unhealthy behaviours often occur in combination. In this study the relationship between education and lifestyle, defined as a cluster of risk behaviours, has been analysed with the purpose to assess socio-economic changes in multiple risk behaviour over time. METHODS Cross-sectional data from the Belgian Health Interview Surveys 1997, 2001 and 2004 were analysed. This study is restricted to persons aged ≥ 15 years with information on those health behaviours and education (n = 7431, n = 8142 and n = 7459, respectively). A lifestyle index was created based on the sum of the four unhealthy behaviours: smokers vs. non-smokers, risky versus non-risky alcohol use, sedentaryness vs. physically active and poor vs. healthy diet. The lifestyle index was dichotomized as low (0-2) vs. high (3-4). For the assessment of socio-economic inequalities in multiple risk behaviour, summary measures as Odds Ratio (OR) and Relative Index of Inequality (RII) were calculated using logistic regression, stratified by sex. RESULTS Of the adult population, 7.5% combined three to four unhealthy behaviours. Lower educated men are the most at risk. Besides, the OR among men significantly increased from 1.6 in 2001 to 3.4 in 2004 (P = 0.029). The increase of the OR among women was less pronounced. The RII, on the other hand, did not show any gradient, neither for men nor for women. CONCLUSION Multiple risk behaviour is more common among lower educated people. An increasing polarization in socio-economic inequalities is assessed from 2001 to 2004 among men. Therefore, health promotion programmes should focus on the lower socio-economic classes and target risk behaviours simultaneously.
STUDY OBJECTIVE The aim of the study was to analyse differences in mortality from the main cardiovascular diseases (ischaemic heart disease, hypertensive disease, and cerebrovascular disease) among Chinese, Malays, and Indians in Singapore. DESIGN The study was a survey using national death registration data in Singapore for the five years 1980 to 1984. The underlying cause of death, coded according to the ninth revision of the International Classification of Diseases, was taken for the analyses. SETTING The study was confined to the independent island state of Singapore, population 2.53 million (Chinese 76.5%, Malays 14.8%, Indians 6.4%, Others 2.3%). Death registration is thought to be complete. SUBJECTS All registered deaths in the age range 30-69 years during the study period were analysed by ethnic group. MEASUREMENT AND MAIN RESULTS Indians had higher mortality from ischaemic heart disease than the other ethnic groups in both sexes, with age-standardised relative risks of Indian v Chinese (males 3.8, females 3.4), Indian v Malay (males 1.9, females 1.6), and Malay v Chinese (males 2.0, females 2.2). The excess mortality in Indians declined with age. For hypertensive disease Malays had the highest mortality, with age-standardised relative risks of Malay v Chinese (males 3.4, females 4.4), Malay v Indian (males 2.0, females 2.5), and Indian v Chinese (males 1.6, females 1.6). For cerebrovascular disease there was little ethnic difference except for lower rates in Chinese females, with age-standardised relative risks of Malay v Chinese (males 1.1, females 1.9), Malay v Indian (males 1.0, females 1.1), and Indian v Chinese (males 1.1, females 1.7). CONCLUSIONS There are significant differences in mortality from the three main cardiovascular diseases in the different ethnic groups in Singapore.
OBJECTIVE To conduct an economic analysis of the Hlabisa community-based directly observed therapy management strategy for tuberculosis and to project costs of three alternative strategies. SETTING Hlabisa health district, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. METHODS An economic analysis comparing the current tuberculosis management strategy in Hlabisa with three alternative strategies (the Hlabisa strategy prior to 1991 based on hospitalisation, the national strategy and sanatorium care) in terms of costs to both health service and patient and of cost-effectiveness. RESULTS The current Hlabisa strategy was the most cost-effective (R3799 per patient cured), compared with R98307 for the strategy used prior to 1991, R9940 for the national strategy, and R11145 for sanatorium care. Between 71% and 88% of treatment costs lie with the health service, and hospitalisation (R119 per day) is the most expensive item. Prolonged hospitalisation is extremely expensive, but community care is cheaper (community clinic visit, R28; community health worker visit, R7). The total cost of supervising a patient in the community under the current Hlabisa strategy was R503, equivalent to 4.2 days in hospital. Drug costs (R157) are equivalent to just 1.3 days in hospital. CONCLUSION Cost to both health service and patient can be substantially reduced by using community-based directly observed therapy for tuberculosis, a strategy that is cheap and cost-effective in Hlabisa. These findings have important national implications, supporting the goals of the new tuberculosis control programme.
BACKGROUND Historically, the main focus of studies of childhood mortality has been the infant and under-five mortality rates. Neonatal mortality (deaths <28 days of age) has received limited attention, although such deaths account for about 41% of all child deaths. To better assess progress, we developed annual estimates for neonatal mortality rates (NMRs) and neonatal deaths for 193 countries for the period 1990-2009 with forecasts into the future. METHODS AND FINDINGS We compiled a database of mortality in neonates and children (<5 years) comprising 3,551 country-years of information. Reliable civil registration data from 1990 to 2009 were available for 38 countries. A statistical model was developed to estimate NMRs for the remaining 155 countries, 17 of which had no national data. Country consultation was undertaken to identify data inputs and review estimates. In 2009, an estimated 3.3 million babies died in the first month of life-compared with 4.6 million neonatal deaths in 1990-and more than half of all neonatal deaths occurred in five countries of the world (44% of global livebirths): India 27.8% (19.6% of global livebirths), Nigeria 7.2% (4.5%), Pakistan 6.9% (4.0%), China 6.4% (13.4%), and Democratic Republic of the Congo 4.6% (2.1%). Between 1990 and 2009, the global NMR declined by 28% from 33.2 deaths per 1,000 livebirths to 23.9. The proportion of child deaths that are in the neonatal period increased in all regions of the world, and globally is now 41%. While NMRs were halved in some regions of the world, Africa's NMR only dropped 17.6% (43.6 to 35.9). CONCLUSIONS Neonatal mortality has declined in all world regions. Progress has been slowest in the regions with high NMRs. Global health programs need to address neonatal deaths more effectively if Millennium Development Goal 4 (two-thirds reduction in child mortality) is to be achieved.